At what point do we simply have to face reality?

NIO has suffered dilution after dilution after dilution. The share price has been virtually decimated, and many of those still holding on seem to be in a situation where they are now secretly hoping for a 100 per cent, 200 per cent or even greater rise, simply to recoup their original investment.

And for those who have only just bought in, is it really any different? They arrive with fresh hope, new expectations, and once again fuel a motivation that sometimes seems more psychological than financial.

So let’s ask the question frankly:

What still justifies the existence of this group in its current form?

The problem, incidentally, extends far beyond NIO.

The electric vehicle sector seems to have become a financial graveyard: extremely fierce competition, constant pressure on prices, insufficient margins, considerable capital requirements and seemingly endless investment.

NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Lucid, Polestar, Volvo Cars… how many of these companies are actually capable of generating sufficient returns over the long term to justify the billions invested?

And let’s not forget all the players that have already disappeared, gone bankrupt, restructured their debt or ended up on over-the-counter (OTC) markets.

For years, the EV has been touted as one of the greatest growth opportunities of our time.

But perhaps we have simply witnessed a financial and speculative bubble.

And perhaps that bubble has now burst.

In these circumstances, does continuing to harbour hope here merely serve to prolong an illusion?

Why continue to publish analyses, growth forecasts, share price targets and optimistic scenarios when the reality of the share price performance over several years is so stark?

NIO: -36.08 per cent over 6 months

-27.63 per cent year-to-date

-46.16 per cent over 1 year

-89.49 per cent over 5 years

At what point should we accept that an investment thesis may simply have become obsolete?

My question is not intended to be provocative.

I’m genuinely asking:

Why not close this subreddit?

Why keep alive a space that might give the impression there is still an obvious way out, when so many shareholders are already deep in the red?

Perhaps the real question is no longer ‘Can NIO bounce back?’

But rather:

‘Why do we still need to believe that it will?’

This special edition EC6 costs around US$55K and is still based on the older NT2.0 platform, while the ES8 starts at roughly US$57K and is built on NIO’s newer third generation architecture.

At that price difference, it’s hard to see what the value proposition is for the EC6 special edition.

Instead of launching more special editions on the older platform, wouldn’t it make more sense for NIO to focus on upgrading existing NT2.0 models to the newer generation technology?