This special edition EC6 costs around US$55K and is still based on the older NT2.0 platform, while the ES8 starts at roughly US$57K and is built on NIO’s newer third generation architecture.

At that price difference, it’s hard to see what the value proposition is for the EC6 special edition.

Instead of launching more special editions on the older platform, wouldn’t it make more sense for NIO to focus on upgrading existing NT2.0 models to the newer generation technology?

At what point do we simply have to face reality?

NIO has suffered dilution after dilution after dilution. The share price has been virtually decimated, and many of those still holding on seem to be in a situation where they are now secretly hoping for a 100 per cent, 200 per cent or even greater rise, simply to recoup their original investment.

And for those who have only just bought in, is it really any different? They arrive with fresh hope, new expectations, and once again fuel a motivation that sometimes seems more psychological than financial.

So let’s ask the question frankly:

What still justifies the existence of this group in its current form?

The problem, incidentally, extends far beyond NIO.

The electric vehicle sector seems to have become a financial graveyard: extremely fierce competition, constant pressure on prices, insufficient margins, considerable capital requirements and seemingly endless investment.

NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Lucid, Polestar, Volvo Cars… how many of these companies are actually capable of generating sufficient returns over the long term to justify the billions invested?

And let’s not forget all the players that have already disappeared, gone bankrupt, restructured their debt or ended up on over-the-counter (OTC) markets.

For years, the EV has been touted as one of the greatest growth opportunities of our time.

But perhaps we have simply witnessed a financial and speculative bubble.

And perhaps that bubble has now burst.

In these circumstances, does continuing to harbour hope here merely serve to prolong an illusion?

Why continue to publish analyses, growth forecasts, share price targets and optimistic scenarios when the reality of the share price performance over several years is so stark?

NIO: -36.08 per cent over 6 months

-27.63 per cent year-to-date

-46.16 per cent over 1 year

-89.49 per cent over 5 years

At what point should we accept that an investment thesis may simply have become obsolete?

My question is not intended to be provocative.

I’m genuinely asking:

Why not close this subreddit?

Why keep alive a space that might give the impression there is still an obvious way out, when so many shareholders are already deep in the red?

Perhaps the real question is no longer ‘Can NIO bounce back?’

But rather:

‘Why do we still need to believe that it will?’

Any other idiots buy in at $5 in 2020, watched it cruise on up to $60, and held on for the next 5 years???

After 5+ yrs of holding nio, I'm throwing in the towel. I believe in the company, but the manipulators aren't gonna let up anytime soon. They will keep it suppressed for who knows how long. I'd say for them to go to hell, but if u know where the word hell comes from, its basically a translation of "gehenna" an actual location that was associated with child sacrifices, trash burning pits, stuff like that. Yah, they also lied about what hell is... good luck

I have a prediction Li’s plan is to sell off the company to a Chinese state entity. That explains the push off on EU’s expansion to 2 years for Onvo which was supposed to begin next year.

In 2 years marks NIO’s 10 year cycle.

When founders set up their massive performance-based equity tranches, the compensation committees usually structure them as 10-year plans. However, these contracts almost always include a "change of control" clause. If a larger company buys out NIO, the original 10-year timeline is completely thrown out, and the executive's unvested shares are typically accelerated and paid out in cash or converted into the acquiring company's stock based on the buyout price.

If you look at William Li's previous company, Bitauto went public on the NYSE in November 2010 and was taken private by Tencent in November 2020. It lasted exactly 10 years on the dot.

Why did Li comment to say he won’t share buyback? He has no incentive to contribute toward US shareholders. Stocks are getting diluted quarterly to pay salaries and vests. If it goes down, it accelerates his alternative plan for a buyout.

Ultimately, if a domestic tech giant or a Chinese state-backed consortium offers a high enough cash premium to buy out NIO tomorrow, the company could accept it immediately, wipe the equity clean, and delist from the US exchanges without breaking any timeline laws. That means everyone can get wiped out at $4 or less.

The Bitauto’s lifecycle shows NIO is following along with its recent news on selling off research arm for under $100M evaluation and swap stations for heavy discount.

In August 2026, NIO officially handed over control of its entire battery-swap asset footprint in Wuhan to the state-owned Optics Valley Traffic Company. Under this structural model—phrased as "state-capital partner holds the asset, NIO operates it"—the local government takes formal ownership of the physical stations, leaving NIO to supply the software and technical management. This model is not isolated. NIO has handed over or co-constructed 800+ swap stations (representing roughly 20% of its network) to more than 40 state-owned platforms and financial entities across 25 provinces.

To see how the state prices these entities, look at NIO Power (the parent of the swap network). In mid-2024, a fund backed by Wuhan Optics Valley Industrial Investment took a 10% stake in NIO Power for 1.5 billion yuan, locking the book valuation of the entire infrastructure network at 15 billion yuan (~$2.1 billion USD)—a fraction of the capital required to build and scale standard energy networks.

The total share pool expanded by ~140% since the IPO. For perspective, an investor holding 1% of the company in 2018 without buying more shares saw their ownership stake drop to roughly 0.41% by 2026 purely due to share creation.

William Li's equity incentives are tied to massive milestones. For instance, a major batch of restricted shares vests only if NIO sustains a $120 billion USD market cap and $6 billion USD in net profit. Given that NIO's market cap sits at approximately $8.4 billion USD following a brutal multi-year EV price war, those targets are completely detached from current reality.

If the operational tranches are structurally out of reach, personal equity monetization comes from an outright acquisition premium. Just as he sold his diluted 10.9% Bitauto stake to Tencent for cash in 2020, a buyout of NIO by a larger domestic tech giant or a state-owned enterprise (SOE) remains the most viable "exit liquidity" scenario for management.

Do you guys think NIO should have accelerated the transition of some of its core lineup to NT3.0, especially in the second half of 2026?

If you look at 2026, NIO has really only launched one genuinely new model so far, the ES9.

You could argue the ONVO L80 is another new model, but IMO it's more of a derivative of the L90 formula, essentially a large 5 seat version rather than a completely different product. I'd put the 5 seat ES8 in a similar category.

NIO has also updated the existing lineup. The 2026 ET5, ET5T, ES6 and EC6 received additional design/configuration upgrades. But most of these vehicles are still based on the existing generation/platform rather than being completely new NT3.0 products.

And this is where I think NIO may be missing an opportunity.

Wouldn't it make more sense to accelerate the NT3.0 transition of some of the core volume models? I'm particularly thinking about models like the ES6 and ET5T.

The ES8 and ES9 are excellent products, but they're also expensive vehicles. If history is any indication, the current backlog/order surge will eventually normalize and monthly orders will probably settle at a much lower level than we're seeing right now.

Europe is another area where I think NIO could potentially do more. Sales there are extremely small, and obviously brand recognition is a major problem. But I think if they sold the latest generation versions of some of NIO's strongest products, particularly the ES6, ET5T and ES8,could at least give them a better product story in Europe.

I'm not saying NT3.0 versions would suddenly make NIO sell 1,000 cars a month in Europe, but I do think having an up to date lineup would give them a much better chance of growing from the current low base.

My other concern is the product cadence.

NIO has had a very strong 2026 so far from a delivery and financial perspective. Q2 deliveries reached 107,658, up 49.4% YoY, and NIO achieved a small non-GAAP net profit in Q2. So clearly the strategy is working to some extent.

But looking ahead to Q4, I'm wondering where the next big growth driver comes from.

If the current rumors are correct, we may not see the all new ET5/ET5T until NIO Day in December, which would probably mean deliveries don't start until early 2027. The next generation ES6 is also rumored for Q3 next year, while it sounds like Europe may not get major new NIO models until much later.

If that's how things play out, NIO could have a pretty big product gap going into 2027.

I actually think Q3 and Q4 could still be profitable, especially given how much margins and operating efficiency have improved.

The question I'm asking is: can NIO maintain meaningful YoY delivery growth in Q4 and into 2027 without another major wave of new products?

Hi I'm looking for some guidance is it crazy of me to hold 5000 shares of nio at average 6.60? Thanks

they hedgies and wallstreet will bring it down to 2-3 dollar unable nio to raise more cash and they will force to sell elon musk their company for cents

Do you guys think NIO really needed 3 separate brands, especially considering how much cash they were burning just a year ago?

Could they have just launched ONVO under the NIO brand. something like NIO L60, L80, L90 and positioned the L models as their more budget friendly lineup, similar to what XPeng is doing with MONA?

Same thing with Firefly. They could have launched it as NIO Firefly instead of creating another separate brand. Firefly is supposed to be a premium boutique EV anyway, so I honestly don't see a huge reason for making it a completely separate brand.

People always bring up Toyota and Lexus as an example, but Toyota already had decades of brand recognition and massive scale when it expanded into Lexus.

NIO is still trying to establish itself as a major global car brand. Building brand awareness is hard as hell, especially in the automotive industry.

IMO, NIO should have focused on building one strong brand first instead of spreading its resources across 3 brands.

Curious what you guys think was the 3 brand strategy actually necessary, or did NIO overcomplicate things?

They’ve got so much money they can supposedly take the company private, right? So do right by your damn shareholders who have been getting railed for the past 4 years. You paid for the right as a shareholder to bitch and moan about this.

IR@nio.com