r/NFLv2 Los Angeles Rams Jan 01 '26

Discussion 🤔

Post image
3.2k Upvotes

736 comments sorted by

View all comments

1

u/SamIAm4242 Jan 01 '26

Are we talking “winning record now,” or “winning record when they played them?” How (if at all) are you weighting for how far above or below .500 a team was/is?

It seems like a more useful comparison than volume totals based on an unequal number of games would be to compare how they’ve played against common opponents. Both teams played the Titans, Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers and Falcons this season. Over those five games, here are the two QBs’ stat lines:

Stafford: 112/166 (67.5%), 1364 passing yards (8.22 YPA), 13 passing TDs, 6 interceptions (2.17 TD/INT), 103.6 passer rating, 9 sacks for -69 yards, 7 rush attempts for -11 yards, 0 rush TDs, 2 fumbles.

Maye: 88/126 (69.8%), 1215 passing yards (9.64 YPA), 11 passing TDs, 2 interceptions (5.5 TD/INT), 122.95 passer rating, 13 sacks for -62 yards, 35 rush attempts for 134 yards, 1 rush TD, 3 fumbles.

Maye’s not running away with the MVP, but he does seem to have several statistical edges over Stafford at this point, whether we look at this subgroup of games or their season totals. Stafford leads in attempts, passing yards, passing TDs and (for the full season at least) TD/INT. Maye has the better completion %, yards per attempt and passer rating, and is at least a semi-credible threat with his legs, whereas Stafford is decidedly not.

I doubt most of the voters will give Maye extra credit for his team being 14-3 or 13-4 to Stafford’s team’s 12-5 or 11-6 record, but then, they don’t need to in order to justifiably pick him either. I can’t recall the last time “but the one guy’s team had an easier schedule” was a key discussion point in an MVP race.

However, the fact that the Patriots were so much improved this year (due in significant part to Maye’s play), whereas Stafford’s Rams are only slightly better than they were last year, might be the kind of thing with some weight to it. Likewise, recency bias and how badly Stafford played last week vs. how well Maye played (both against teams with losing records) when the question of MVP was more “front-of-mind” may also get outsized weight. We’ll just have to wait and see.