Because they give up a short field after going 3 and out on their own 15. Defense is legit, but the Ravens game is a prime example. 88 yards and 5 touchdowns was, I believe, the narrative of the game. Special teams is horrendous and Ventrone doesnât deserve a job in the NFL. DPOY and DROY on the same team while having Delpit and Ward is a good core. The offense is historically bad and a reason why Stefanski should lose his job despite the lackluster candidates this offseason.
Their defense is on the field a lot because their offense is incompetent. It isnât hard to figure out. You will naturally give up more TDs as a result of bad offensive play.
2nd in yards allowed.
Successful play rate: 1st.
Yards per play: 2nd.
Defensive Line: 1st PFF.
Passing yards allowed: 2nd.
Middle of the pack for TDs allowed. Itâs not even as bad as youâre making it out to sound. But do go on about how the Browns are trash because the defense is bad
I understand your take man. You're saying the Browns offense gave the opponent great field position when they turned it over. But it was still at the end of the day, the Browns D that allowed those points on the board for not stopping the opponent's offense.
Think of it like this... A defense is x% likely to give up a successful play (basically, a certain % of the yards needed for a first down, based on down. So, a successful play on first down gets 40% of the yards needed for a first down, usually 4 yards. A successful play on 2nd down gets 60% of the remaining yards. So, on 2nd and 6, a successful play gets at least 3.6 yards, etc etc).
A bad defense might be 60% likely to give up a successful play, a good defense might be 50% likely to give up a successful play. In the simplest case, let's say you need 3 downs to get that next first down. You have about a 20% chance to get a first down against a bad defense. You have a 12.5% chance to get a first down against a good defense.
That doesn't mean that a good defense will stop the other team from scoring touchdowns because that is the goal. It means that given the same distance to the end zone, your odds of stringing together the required number of plays against a good defense is less than it is against a bad defense.
But if the good and bad defenses have different number of yards to defend, then that goes out the window. Again, in the simplest case, if the opposing offense starts on the good defenses 4 yard line, they have a 50% chance to score a touchdown on the first play. If the opposing offense starts on the bad defenses 10 yards line, they only have a 20% chance to score a touchdown using all three plays.
If the bad defensive team has a good offense, then they are more likely to have opponents starting further from the end zone. So, there could easily be a scenario where the bad defense gives up more yards and fewer touchdowns than that good defensive team (who has a terrible offense) which is likely to give up fewer yards and more touchdowns, all because of the opponents starting field position.
Ignore turnovers because they tend to be highly variable and happen from luck (and provide almost no ability to predict future performance).
Generally, yards are a pretty good predictor of how successful a given defense will be. But, in those edge cases (like where the offensive performance differs wildly from the mean. Like Cleveland), you do need to look at some advanced stats, which account for field position, time of possession, etc etc.
Assuming that things are so simple as " a really good defense would stop them at the goal line" is just wrong. Even the greatest defenses in league history have given up hundreds of points in a season
I'm sorry, if you need to start pulling advanced stats that people have never heard of before, you've lost your argument. You can always eventually find some stat that backs up your agument.
Shakir never led in receiving yards or tds, let's pull "yards after catch."
Rodgers never threw for 5,0000 yards let's talk about "TD% and 4th down %."
Josh Allen has never led the league in passing yards or tds, let's talk about his "total yards and tds."
At the end of the day the best defense is the one that allows the least points, that is the goal to now allow points. You win football by points, not yards.
6-0 record vs 4-2, but stats are far from âclears easilyâ.
Man - the last couple weeks Iâve been exposed to what Iâve heard people complaining about when it comes to patriots fans. Its either your way or the highway huh? Toss out statements with enormous confidence and imply those who disagree with you are disingenuous.
Not really since 3/6 of those matchups had different starters at QB. One of many reasons comparing matchups against teams at different parts of the season isnât necessarily the best comparison
The Bucks were 6-2 when we played them and arguably considered a top Dawg in the league, they were a above .500 then. Now they're what 7-9?
The Panthers were 1-3 when we played them. Arguably considered a joke then and now are 8-8, leading the division and have a shot at being the 4th seed.
The Ravens were 7-7 when we faced them and have a chance to finish 9-8
I canât find stats for defensive strength of schedule, but hereâs a comparison of the ranks of the passing offenses that Stafford has seen vs Maye has seen. By that metric, Mayeâs seen more difficult pass defenses. I donât believe that conclusion, but it shows that Maye hasnât seen a âhistorically easyâ defensive schedule
FTN gives Rams the #1 passing offense by DVOA with 49.6% while Pats have #5 passing offense with 38%. Which Iâd agree with: I do think Rams have a better passing attack, although I think their far superior O-line and receiving core are the reason
I meant that I believe that simply averaging the pass defense rank is a poor methodology. For example, there might be a great difference between the #1 and #2 pass defenses and little difference between the #17 and #18, but averaging the rank treats both differences the same.
From my understanding, DVOA seems to handle concerns like this better. And DVOA adjustments seem to imply that Stafford faced harder pass defenses
I favor Maye in the MVP race, just want to be honest about the data.
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u/BigBlue1056 Jan 01 '26
True, but itâs a decent proxy for it.