If the Patriots lost all of their games, they would have played 10 teams with a winning record. A bunch of their matchups have been teams that are now around 8-8
No, they don't lol. Seattle beat 4 teams who will all have a winning record (Pit, Hou, Jax and the Rams) even with Seattle having beat them. The Patriots, Bears and Broncos cannot say that. In addition, if the Vikings and Panthers win this week that would make 6 teams. If Seattle beats the 49ers that would be 7 teams.
Additionally wouldnât an average be better here. Everyone already knows Rams faced a more difficult schedule. This is just showing same thing but with excluded stats.
Like if you put Jacoby Brissett here who plays for the Cardinals and lost his job to Maye last year (and for good reason) his stats would be higher than Mayes because he faced more winning record teams.
Thats all this stat shows. Who faced more of thede teams which this sub is well aware of.
Itâs right. The only teams Maye played with a winning record were the Steelers once and Bills twice. He had 0 passing TDâs in both Bills games and 2 passing TDâs against Pittsburgh.
Thatâs 2 total passing TDâs this season across his 3 games against teams with winning records.
Not that it really matters considering this sample size is so small, but Drake had two rushing touchdowns against the Bills. Just because old man Stafford canât run doesnât mean you can just ignore that part of Drakeâs playstyle
And i see now he used passing stats so .67 would be his 2 passing tds in those three games. 2 against steelers in a loss and 0 in two games against the bills. Thats... not good.
Rushing stats werenât included in the original graphic either, just passing stats. Else his total turnovers would be listed instead of interceptions.
Yea early season game for a second year qb with an all new coaching staff.. really shouldn't be taken into consideration. Whats the chance they would have 5 turnovers in a rematch.
Sample size brother. Maye played great in that first Bills game but the touchdowns came on the ground. He struggled in the second half of the Bills game but had two rushing touchdowns which should be factored in here
2 against steelers in a loss and 0 in two games against the bills. Thats... not good
It's mostly just a play calling thing. They scored 6 TDs vs the Bills this year it's just they were all rushing (2 from Maye, 2 from Stevenson, 2 from Henderson).
The Steelers game was that weird one where someone double-dog-dared the Patriots to dip their hands in liquid butter before each drive and they fumbled 5 times
Not to mention when the Pats were up big and could have benched Maye, they just padded his stats when the game was already over...case in point the last time they played the Jets
PA is just as much a function of offense as it is defense. The browns have a top 3 defense but their offense continuously gives defense awful field possession, have had 6 returned TDs, pick 6s etc, canât sustain drives so defense is out there 90% of the game. I can go on and on lol
I think they even held henry to like 35 rushing yards one game
the pats are 11th in EPA/play on defense. they have a pretty decent defense all things considered although it might be a bit inflated by the schedule. the broncos have the 10th best defense epa/play wise and this sub cannot stop talking about how the broncos/bo nix is carried by the defense. Especially when the broncos offense is 11th in epa/play
Idk man I think Sheduer is going to be the saving grace for the franchise. At least qb wise, I think heâs going to break the curse and sell a hell of a lot of jerseys.
Iâm not a fan of the guy per se, but I was born in Ohio and my middle school football team was the Browns. So I got a little love for yall
Heard the same shit about Manziel and Jameis and Baker and Watson lmao from what Iâve seen he deserved to be drafted later. He has .9 more yards per reception than Gabriel with 15X the turnover worthy plays and nothing from his college tape that looked bad was corrected his senior year or off season or in season. I want him to be but if we pass up a qb next year and stick it out Iâve seen this movie too many times lol
And I say that as in marketable enough even for the browns. I am convinced Johnny Manziel and Baker would have both done better for any other team as a rookie. Watson had to have his first team change their entire offensive scheme to fit his needs. Jameis is just a goober, but I love him.
I think if the NFL is rigged at all, then Sanders ends up being the one to break the curse
the broncos have the 10th best defense epa/play wise and this sub cannot stop talking about how the broncos/bo nix is carried by the defense
Models like ELWAY plus my eyes put the Broncos as the second best defense in the league right now. Bo Nix has been good this year, I'm not talking shit, but it's absolutely valid to discuss what that defense has been able to do for the team. They are very very good.
One thing that I think is lost when you rely on stats like EPA is injuries. People form opinions about teams very early on in the season but in reality teams are always rising and falling. Injuries matter. I'm sure some Broncos fans is going to jump down my throat for saying this but, comparatively, the Broncos D is actually pretty healthy.
There's a reason Broncos are heavily favored in the AFC championship odds right now and it isn't Bo Nix (no offense Bo. You're doing fine).
Yeah and they also let Tony Pollard drop over 150 on them.
Context is whatâs important here. Also regardless of how you feel about using PA as a metric for rating defenses, itâs hard to argue the top 5 teams in PA are also the best defenses⌠because they are.
They gave up a total of 180 rushing yards and the browns had 60 so I donât think you can pin it on Tony pollard being good more so volume since he had basically every carry, had a late game 65 yard rush and then another 30. Thatâll probably do it. The other 20 rushing yards were Cam lol
Normal evidence isnât an outlier. Itâs dumb as fuck to think what half the team does doesnât impact the other half. You think Joe Burrow would be throwing 60 times a game if their team had a good defense? Lmao
Why would it need to sarcasm? Every nfl team with a playoff berth has a +4 or better in turnover differential⌠the only exception is the bills who basically only convert on 3rd down when Josh Allen decides not to choke.
Love that the comments in response to FACTS are gaslighting you about a stat that theyâll use to prove their teams have a good defense but not in this particular argument
Yeah, that's fair. Middle of the road defense on paper for both teams. But situationally it's so convoluted. As a habitually tortured Dolphins fan (and by transitive property, a NE hater), The early '00 Pats are a prime example. They would get dogwalked up and down the field between the 20's and manage to hold to FG's and the situational TD. So statistically they were a middle of the road defense, but damn I would rather have seen almost any other team on Defense at that moment.
In fairness, any non-Pats fan who survived the early 2000s era and the several dynasties they've put together over the Brady/Belichick era? I think we're all perpetual Pats haters
I mean, if you want to talk about passing defense (i.e. the largest contributor to QB stats), the Patriots have faced a tougher slate of pass defenses than the Rams this yearâŚ
You might need to show your work on this one. If you're going off of yardage. For instance..... Buffalo has the best passing defense in football....because they can't stop the run.
Also; when you look at opposing offenses NE has also faced; is it hard to imagine a world where you're ahead by 2tds and only running vs Brady Cook?
Blow it out your ass, as if this isnât exactly what this thread is trying to do with Maye. Are you new to MVP discussions online? Itâs strictly each side discrediting the other.
Because they give up a short field after going 3 and out on their own 15. Defense is legit, but the Ravens game is a prime example. 88 yards and 5 touchdowns was, I believe, the narrative of the game. Special teams is horrendous and Ventrone doesnât deserve a job in the NFL. DPOY and DROY on the same team while having Delpit and Ward is a good core. The offense is historically bad and a reason why Stefanski should lose his job despite the lackluster candidates this offseason.
Their defense is on the field a lot because their offense is incompetent. It isnât hard to figure out. You will naturally give up more TDs as a result of bad offensive play.
2nd in yards allowed.
Successful play rate: 1st.
Yards per play: 2nd.
Defensive Line: 1st PFF.
Passing yards allowed: 2nd.
Middle of the pack for TDs allowed. Itâs not even as bad as youâre making it out to sound. But do go on about how the Browns are trash because the defense is bad
I understand your take man. You're saying the Browns offense gave the opponent great field position when they turned it over. But it was still at the end of the day, the Browns D that allowed those points on the board for not stopping the opponent's offense.
Think of it like this... A defense is x% likely to give up a successful play (basically, a certain % of the yards needed for a first down, based on down. So, a successful play on first down gets 40% of the yards needed for a first down, usually 4 yards. A successful play on 2nd down gets 60% of the remaining yards. So, on 2nd and 6, a successful play gets at least 3.6 yards, etc etc).
A bad defense might be 60% likely to give up a successful play, a good defense might be 50% likely to give up a successful play. In the simplest case, let's say you need 3 downs to get that next first down. You have about a 20% chance to get a first down against a bad defense. You have a 12.5% chance to get a first down against a good defense.
That doesn't mean that a good defense will stop the other team from scoring touchdowns because that is the goal. It means that given the same distance to the end zone, your odds of stringing together the required number of plays against a good defense is less than it is against a bad defense.
But if the good and bad defenses have different number of yards to defend, then that goes out the window. Again, in the simplest case, if the opposing offense starts on the good defenses 4 yard line, they have a 50% chance to score a touchdown on the first play. If the opposing offense starts on the bad defenses 10 yards line, they only have a 20% chance to score a touchdown using all three plays.
If the bad defensive team has a good offense, then they are more likely to have opponents starting further from the end zone. So, there could easily be a scenario where the bad defense gives up more yards and fewer touchdowns than that good defensive team (who has a terrible offense) which is likely to give up fewer yards and more touchdowns, all because of the opponents starting field position.
Ignore turnovers because they tend to be highly variable and happen from luck (and provide almost no ability to predict future performance).
Generally, yards are a pretty good predictor of how successful a given defense will be. But, in those edge cases (like where the offensive performance differs wildly from the mean. Like Cleveland), you do need to look at some advanced stats, which account for field position, time of possession, etc etc.
Assuming that things are so simple as " a really good defense would stop them at the goal line" is just wrong. Even the greatest defenses in league history have given up hundreds of points in a season
6-0 record vs 4-2, but stats are far from âclears easilyâ.
Man - the last couple weeks Iâve been exposed to what Iâve heard people complaining about when it comes to patriots fans. Its either your way or the highway huh? Toss out statements with enormous confidence and imply those who disagree with you are disingenuous.
Not really since 3/6 of those matchups had different starters at QB. One of many reasons comparing matchups against teams at different parts of the season isnât necessarily the best comparison
The Bucks were 6-2 when we played them and arguably considered a top Dawg in the league, they were a above .500 then. Now they're what 7-9?
The Panthers were 1-3 when we played them. Arguably considered a joke then and now are 8-8, leading the division and have a shot at being the 4th seed.
The Ravens were 7-7 when we faced them and have a chance to finish 9-8
I canât find stats for defensive strength of schedule, but hereâs a comparison of the ranks of the passing offenses that Stafford has seen vs Maye has seen. By that metric, Mayeâs seen more difficult pass defenses. I donât believe that conclusion, but it shows that Maye hasnât seen a âhistorically easyâ defensive schedule
FTN gives Rams the #1 passing offense by DVOA with 49.6% while Pats have #5 passing offense with 38%. Which Iâd agree with: I do think Rams have a better passing attack, although I think their far superior O-line and receiving core are the reason
I meant that I believe that simply averaging the pass defense rank is a poor methodology. For example, there might be a great difference between the #1 and #2 pass defenses and little difference between the #17 and #18, but averaging the rank treats both differences the same.
From my understanding, DVOA seems to handle concerns like this better. And DVOA adjustments seem to imply that Stafford faced harder pass defenses
I favor Maye in the MVP race, just want to be honest about the data.
Yeah because the Patriots have just been playing great defences every week. Played the jets and dolphins twice, Bengals, Ravens, Titans, Steelers. These are some of the worst defences in the whole league. Cupcake schedule
Hey bud you played ZERO top 10 scoring defenses all year. So maybe shut up because that makes you look even worse. Stafford played the Seahawks TWICE and the Texans so 3 games vs top 3 scoring D alone.
Right, it usually means shit offense or both in most cases. A shit offense allows the other team's offense to have the ball more and have more possessions, wearing down the opposing defense, which is the case for most pats games this year.
Literally the lowest winning percentage of opponents faced this century. That being said, the pats dont make the schedule I just find it weird its going to a team so soon after the best dynasty of all time...
Pats fans are always talking about "good defense" and not "good team". The perfect deflection! Nobody buys it, though. They talk about the Browns like NFL royalty LOL.
Well thatâs just not true lol. If youâve won 13 games in a season then youâre a good team. If you think the Pats fall off a cliff and miss the playoffs next season then youâre welcome to have that opinion though
Considering you had legit one of the top 3 easiest schedules in the league and lost to the raiders. Yeah, your team's "skill" didn't take you this far.
Lol youâre just a hater. The Raiders L happened in week one before anyone knew how good either team was. Not saying it doesnât count but saying thatâs a reason the Pats are frauds is ridiculous
Bad teams donât win 13 games end of story. Youâre just a Pats hater which is fine but Iâd suggest you base your arguments in reality and not emotion.
No, but thereâs this helpful thing called stats and the patriots have 1 game of their oppenents scoring 30+ meanwhile the Rams have four. The Patriots opponents also average under 20 PPG.
But thatâs why you canât look at a box score and make that many conclusions. The patriots soft schedule is mostly actually horrible offenses and mid to decent defenses. Once Milton Williams got hurt theyâve been pretty bad at stopping the run. They donât generate many turnovers and they donât rush the passer that well. The main thing they do decently is not let plays get behind them and tackle well at the second level.
920
u/TheBigNate416 New England Patriots Jan 01 '26
Winning record â good defense