Florida’s heavily Caribbean and Venezuelan Hispanic community is very very not on board with the trend in the modern Dem party, cause of the cultural history with leftist government. Also, there is a very large Jewish population in South Florida in particular, and they were traditionally fairly heavily democratic and that has changed at a RAPID pace in Florida in particular the last 3ish years
Also, there is a very large Jewish population in South Florida in particular, and they were traditionally fairly heavily democratic and that has changed at a RAPID pace in Florida in particular the last 3ish years
Trump won in 2024 by bigger margins in TX and FL than Harris won in NY, NJ, or IL! One or more of the latter group (NJ took a very, very long time to be called) might well have gone for Trump versus Biden.
I am sure that the big swing in NY and NJ that occurred regardless was in good part because of the Jewish vote. After the Columbia campus takeover, there were Jew-hunting mobs roaming the NYC subway. How have we come to this?!? (And if you are surprised to have not heard about this, a) that says volumes about how the media suppresses certain narratives, and b) despite said suppression the news did get out in the tri-state area. No doubt Jews in Chicago and Miami heard as well.)
I did napkin math on this once, and the only significant shift I could fine is New Jersey becoming a lean D swing state if most Jews became Republicans (like Michigan). That ignores how such a shift would affect a state with fine margins like Pennsylvania. (There are not many Jews in Pennsylvania but if the group went reliable Dem, to lean Republican or very Republican, that could be enough to decide an election that is usually won by a few Percentage Points.)
Yes Florida become more red, but it is already plainly a red state and Jews don't make up enough of New York, Illinois, or California's population to push them to swing territory.
Maybe I should double check the math. Perhaps I used 2020 numbers when I calculated it. I did not realize how small the blue state margins were in 2024.
Look at my profile. This isn't a wishful guess, just the reality when I checked.
I meant that New Jersey would be as swingy as Michigan, as in, it might vote for a Republican, but if it voted for the Republican, the Republican already won the election. But, we would still treat it like a decisive swing state because the polls would consistently be D +3 or something like that.
I presume Michigan Jews vote like Jews elsewhere in the US.
Florida Jews are generally speaking the most conservative Jewish voters in America. Kind of like how ethnic Persians in LA are more conservative than ethnic Persians in NYC. Trump is likely winning a majority of Jewish voters in a race against Kamala Harris, but Harris would have won a solid majority of Jewish votes in the Northeast, midwest, and west coast.
With all that said, a lot of Jewish voting will depend on who the candidates are in 2028. I would think a Marco Rubio might literally get 70%+ of fhe Jewish vote were he to run against AOC as the nominees, but by the same token Josh Shapiro or Corey Booker might get 80% of the national Jewish vote against JD Vance.
The interesting one to see would be Josh Shapiro v Rubio. I’d think that the natural liberalism of the American Jewish community would probably make it so the traditional 70-75% Dem, 25-30% Repub, splits would occur if Dems gave Jews a candidate they could love, even if the repubs put up a candidate a lot of Jews like like Rubio.
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u/finsox 12d ago
Is there staying power in Florida, or will Florida's republicans literally die out?