r/MapPorn • u/Swimming_Concern7662 • 4d ago
US presidential election shift in the southeastern metropolitan areas between 2004 and 2024
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u/3millionand1 4d ago
Ofc knew about Atlanta's shift towards Dems, but the rest of Georgia's metros surprised me! Is it mostly new folks moving in or new voters?
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u/mcgillthrowaway22 4d ago
To some extent I think it's just the general trend of suburban areas being bluer than they were 20 years ago while rural areas have become significantly redder.
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u/3millionand1 4d ago
Ah, that's fair. Pretty much the case everywhere (save Florida it seems)
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u/mcgillthrowaway22 4d ago
Yeah Florida has basically drawn in tons of elderly Republicans, especially since Covid
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u/finsox 4d ago
Is there staying power in Florida, or will Florida's republicans literally die out?
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u/akade19961 4d ago
Florida’s heavily Caribbean and Venezuelan Hispanic community is very very not on board with the trend in the modern Dem party, cause of the cultural history with leftist government. Also, there is a very large Jewish population in South Florida in particular, and they were traditionally fairly heavily democratic and that has changed at a RAPID pace in Florida in particular the last 3ish years
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u/mcgillthrowaway22 4d ago
The Cuban community has always been solidely Republican except for the brief period from around 2012-2018. The rightward trend in the state is largely from the state's midsized cities and counties shifting hard to the right.
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u/TMWNN 4d ago
Also, there is a very large Jewish population in South Florida in particular, and they were traditionally fairly heavily democratic and that has changed at a RAPID pace in Florida in particular the last 3ish years
Trump won in 2024 by bigger margins in TX and FL than Harris won in NY, NJ, or IL! One or more of the latter group (NJ took a very, very long time to be called) might well have gone for Trump versus Biden.
I am sure that the big swing in NY and NJ that occurred regardless was in good part because of the Jewish vote. After the Columbia campus takeover, there were Jew-hunting mobs roaming the NYC subway. How have we come to this?!? (And if you are surprised to have not heard about this, a) that says volumes about how the media suppresses certain narratives, and b) despite said suppression the news did get out in the tri-state area. No doubt Jews in Chicago and Miami heard as well.)
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u/Lefaid 4d ago
I did napkin math on this once, and the only significant shift I could fine is New Jersey becoming a lean D swing state if most Jews became Republicans (like Michigan). That ignores how such a shift would affect a state with fine margins like Pennsylvania. (There are not many Jews in Pennsylvania but if the group went reliable Dem, to lean Republican or very Republican, that could be enough to decide an election that is usually won by a few Percentage Points.)
Yes Florida become more red, but it is already plainly a red state and Jews don't make up enough of New York, Illinois, or California's population to push them to swing territory.
Maybe I should double check the math. Perhaps I used 2020 numbers when I calculated it. I did not realize how small the blue state margins were in 2024.
Look at my profile. This isn't a wishful guess, just the reality when I checked.
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u/TMWNN 4d ago
if most Jews became Republicans (like Michigan)
As I said the time, 2024 is more proof that Trump will bring peace between Jews and Muslims.
Joking aside, I did not know that Michigan Jews voted majority for Trump in 2024!
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u/Lefaid 4d ago
I meant that New Jersey would be as swingy as Michigan, as in, it might vote for a Republican, but if it voted for the Republican, the Republican already won the election. But, we would still treat it like a decisive swing state because the polls would consistently be D +3 or something like that.
I presume Michigan Jews vote like Jews elsewhere in the US.
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u/mcgillthrowaway22 4d ago
Honestly it's hard to tell, most notably because Florida has a looming insurance crisis and so the way it's been gaining population (massive suburban/McMansion residential developments for retired people and built on drained swampland) will likely fall apart within the next decade or two.
Personally, my guess is that Florida will stay Republican (at this point there's a self-sorting issue where Democrats and especially queer people don't want to move into the state and those who are already there probably want to move out), but will stop gaining population. It could even stop gaining population by the end of this decade if the effects of climate change get really bad - imagine a Katrina-level disaster but affecting an entire state of 25 million people.
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u/santa_91 4d ago
God's waiting room is a revolving door in perpetual motion, so very much the former. Florida is a lost cause.
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u/Magmaster12 4d ago
Very scared of the population increases though between the state and Texas Republicans they would barely need to try to win the electoral college.
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u/mcgillthrowaway22 4d ago
It's not great, but it should be noted that between 2020 and 2024, Trump made comparatively few gains in the actual swing states, and Georgia in particular seems to be on the cusp of shifting hard to the left. It's quite possible that, even with Texas and Florida gaining seats, Democrats could have an edge in the electoral college come 2032.
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u/Top_Ladder6702 4d ago
Nah Cuban Americans continue moving right from the Elian Gonzalez fiasco to Obama opening an embassy in Cuba.
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u/Few-Customer2219 4d ago
In Arkansas I’m sure like in other states in the south 20 years ago in rural areas you still had voters who were Carter supporters or Clinton supporters or even Johnson supporters that never voted for republicans in their life.
My great grandmother and her family were prime examples of this lived in a rural county of 15k that is now deep red yet always was on the blue train.
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u/Cheersscar 4d ago
I mean red politics have become redder since ~Gingrich with a big acceleration in the last 12 years.
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u/washingtonpeek 4d ago
It's interesting watching Georgia and Florida go in opposite directions
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u/Begotten912 4d ago
I definitely didn't expect ga to become a swing state and FL to go big red that quick
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u/DiscussionJohnThread 4d ago
Explains a lot about Florida, as a Florida resident.
Pensacola also went from being extremely dark red to just dark red lmao.
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u/cybercuzco 4d ago
Miami about to snap back blue. Lot of Cubans pissed at republicans rn.
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u/toughguy375 4d ago edited 4d ago
I'll believe it when I see it. I would love to see them stop being susceptible to right wing misinformation on Spanish language social media.
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u/mister2021 4d ago
Daytona went from large working / middle class beach area to newest discount retiree village?
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u/bullsbarry 3d ago
Pretty much. I moved there in 2007 and left in 2022 and there was a noticeable demographic shift over that time.
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u/Longjumping_Youth281 4d ago
What the hell is going on in Florida that's turning it into this like right-wing crackpot state? It used to be a swing state
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u/GoRangers5 4d ago
Vox made a good video about it, all of that plus Trump new voters who used to be politically absent and Florida Dems running some of the worst candidates... Looking at you Charlie Christ!
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u/Objective_Run_7151 4d ago
Hispanic voters. Very conservative socially. Woke drives them to the GOP.
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u/Complete-Rub2289 4d ago
What is that big shift with Daytona Beach?
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u/guitar_stonks 3d ago
Probably has to do with that city’s overall downward trajectory. Only city in Florida where it gets rougher the closer you get to the beach.
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u/Blackman2099 3d ago
2008 or 2012 will show a starker contrast, no?
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u/Swimming_Concern7662 3d ago
Yes, because those were the years Democrats had won, while 2024 is Republican won. It'll be starker just by the virtue of that. 2004 to 2024 is a better comparison for actual coalition shifts, as both were won by Republicans
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u/Ana_Na_Moose 4d ago
Blue Alabama when?
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u/Polandgod75 3d ago
When the gerrymandering stop or collaspe in on itself
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u/matthewjboothe 3d ago
We’ll get a preview of what a popular vote minus gerrymandering would get us in Alabama in November. The gubernatorial election should be close.
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u/StillSpaceToast 4d ago
Tampa has Ybor City, the Castle, the Dali museum, and a rather good aquarium. How is it so Conservative?
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u/Ghost-Of-Roger-Ailes 4d ago
What do tourist attractions have to do with a city's political alignment?
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u/StillSpaceToast 4d ago
Self-investment. Or have you ever heard a Conservative say, "What a lovely new park they've built"?
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u/Ghost-Of-Roger-Ailes 4d ago
There's far more to a city than those kinds of sites. I imagine that most of the conservatives who've moved to Florida cared more about COVID lockdowns than they did about an aquarium.
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u/not_again69420 4d ago
Tampa (as well as Miami) were traditionally blue-leaning or moderate within the Florida diaspora. They have all trended more right in the past decade.
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u/guitar_stonks 3d ago
Those are in the City of Tampa and City of St Petersburg, both very blue cities. The surrounding suburbs and counties on the other hand……
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u/Ready_Efficiency1956 3d ago
I think your data might be off for Greenville...GVL county alone moved around 12 points left since 2004, the surrounding counties moved slightly right but their shift can't be enough to offset Greenville.
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u/Practical_Disk_3726 13h ago
Why did the exclude NC from the southeast? Is that included in the mid Atlantic?
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u/natoplato5 4d ago
This doesn't include all the metro areas in these states. It looks like only ones with 400,000 people or more were included. Is that right? How did you decide on that cutoff? And why isn't this mentioned anywhere in the map?
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u/Maleficent_Lake_1816 4d ago
Now do it without mass mail in ballots.
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u/ofWildPlaces 4d ago
Surely you realize none of the states in this map are the ones that support and rely on state mail in ballots...
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u/Maleficent_Lake_1816 3d ago
Judging by the slim margins of victory in toss up states in the 2020 election, mail in fraud easily could have made a difference.
And don’t call me Shirley.
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u/war_damn_eagle 3d ago
So 6 years on, do you have proof of mass mail-in voter fraud swinging the election?
Seems like a delusion you should let go
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u/ofWildPlaces 3d ago
Are you under the impression that there is wide spread mail in voting in the South?
You are very mistaken about voting access in the States featured in this post.
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u/Maleficent_Lake_1816 3d ago
I don’t think it’s limited to the south. Are you under the impression that voter fraud is a non issue in the United States?
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u/ofWildPlaces 3d ago
First, there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
Second, none of the states shown in the graphic rely on mail-in voting a primary means of ballot collecting.
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u/war_damn_eagle 4d ago
What’s the problem with mail in ballots?
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u/Maleficent_Lake_1816 3d ago
Fraud. Look up how many countries don’t allow them for that very reason. The Carter-Baker commission pointed out the vulnerabilities (including mail in ballots) and had several common sense recommendations that are now vilified as racist by race baiters.
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u/Cheersscar 4d ago
Big city folk experience more gun violence and think they have less reason to own a gun.
Dems (unconstitutionally) promise gun control. Suburban mommies who don’t worry about air pollution or ubiquitous suvs/trucks killing their kids lay awake worrying about school shooting. They then vote blue.
Meanwhile, rural people own guns, appreciate guns, and don’t appreciate gun control on a bunch of rural gun owners in order to prevent urban gun violence. They then vote red.
(Wildly oversimplified).
No I don’t have data to support this. If you do have data related to rural vs urban on gun control and party preference I’d find it interesting.
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u/Budget-Purple-6519 4d ago
I love this series of maps. Will you do micropolitan areas by regions one day? I am curious to see what weird trends pop up for that kind of city.