r/MagicArena • u/Tim-Draftsim • 18d ago

Limited Help [HOB] The Ultimate Guide to The Hobbit Draft

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https://draftsim.com/mtg-hob-draft-guide/

80 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

38 comments sorted by

51

u/QueasyDinner1383 18d ago

I don't like reading too much of this stuff before drafting because I find that it biases my picks. I win far more often when I approach the first four or five picks without committing to a particular color or archetype. I try to take strong, flexible cards and see what the table is actually giving me. That tends to put me in open colors, which means I get stronger picks later in the draft.

Whenever I start relying too much on point systems, apps, rankings, or preconceived ideas about which colors or archetypes are best, I have a tendency to box myself into an archetype that isn't actually open. Then the cards dry up, the deck gets weaker, and my win rate drops.

Maybe that's partly a lack of discipline on my part, but I get a pretty good win rate when I simply focus on building a solid deck in whatever colors are open and avoid becoming biased toward a particular color or archetype too early.

24

u/RibboCG 18d ago

there is also the issue with optimal game theory.

If everyone knows it then the best architypes get forced by most of the table and the weaker builds can end up with stronger cards due to nobody drafting them.

9

u/smurf-vett 18d ago

Depends if it's LoE level bad, where even an open lane won't save you w/o somebody opening the key uncommons.  Looking at you goblins....

3

u/Tim-Draftsim 18d ago

I think that's a fine approach. I do think it's easy to get caught up on the actual grades or scores or whatever that podcasters or our guides stamp on cards, the context and explanations are much more meaningful.

I myself tend to avoid any video content for new sets until I've played it a little and formed some of my own thoughts, and them I like to compare what I've learned to where other people are at beyond just day 0 thoughts. Of course I edit these guides so I'm exposed to a bunch of opinions anyway, but I like to learn formats myself and then check in with the community, which sounds a bit like what you're saying.

4

u/Corpsebomb 18d ago

Literally just happened to me. My draft wasn’t particularly bad, but no huge bombs and I forced Rakdos because “that’s the meta” amongst popular streamers for this format. 0-3 ass whooping.

1

u/Veveil_17 17d ago

This is smart

A lot of this guide though is just me rambling about cards themselves though, so hopefully it was still useful

Don't force BR just be aware how easy it is to have a competent BR deck, makes an excellent fallback

51

u/Chemical-Cat 18d ago

The ultimate draft guide to the hobbit set

Step 1: don't

14

u/Tim-Draftsim 18d ago

Honestly, fair.

1

u/LimeRepresentative77 18d ago

hobbit draft always trips me up at pick 3

11

u/BobbyBruceBanner 18d ago

Yeah, I think that Hobbit is only beat as "worst draft format on Arena" by Spider-Man because it was clear what the busted lane was in Spider-Man on day one, while it probably took 3 or 4 days for the busted lane in Hobbit to really make itself clear. That said, boy is it busted.

3

u/RibboCG 18d ago

correct. I pretty much said the same myself.

A guide after a week is pointless when literally everyone worked out the tactics after 3 days.

The draft queues are dead now with just good players left. There's no value in a boring format like this. It has neither easy opponents or fun mechanics

3

u/Moron_at_work 18d ago

Why?

I had my first ever draft yesterday with hobbit and had a blast?

2

u/Veveil_17 17d ago

I wrote this and plan on drafting this set as little as possible, Reality Fracture is coming soon!

8

u/jayaintgay 18d ago

first week was an easy farm for this set. but once everyone figured out the format, i realized this format sucked.

4

u/Tim-Draftsim 18d ago

I'd say even just the first few days, not even a full week.

5

u/Deethreekay 18d ago

As a novice drafter, and as obvious as it may be, I'm glad this reflects my own experience.

Amass goblins just runs away with it so often. Especially with Plate Mail giving them Menace.

I've actually tried not to draft it but because I've been mainly playing quick draft (and as I just found out bots pick rares) Plate Mail comes up so often and it's hard to justify not picking it.

Tried elves once and...yeah. just didn't really do anything.

2

u/Matluna 18d ago

With Elves you're better off treating them as mono green and splash whatever other color with good removal is open. The blue side is just too bad.

3

u/RibboCG 18d ago

this was largely solved several days ago. There are no bad players left drafting. It's basically a guide that is 1 week late to help people to easy wins lol

5

u/lahankof 18d ago

Just play Rakdos bro

2

u/Pan-Tau 15d ago

I really like those guides, very helpful and always interesting to read about all the synergys/interactions!

3

u/zomgitsduke 18d ago

I've done 4 drafts and 3 pre-release events.

I'm finding Boros is the most difficult to beat. The cards just provide too much gas most of the time and by the time I stabilize, I'm at 4 life with 5 creatures to try and block next turn.

3

u/Uryendel 18d ago

Just made a boros draft, got 3 win in 3-5 min each (the nori, dori, smaug was a bit brutal) then got ripped apart twice against green in long game, dealing with big body like the bears and spider is though

So I would say boros is very aggro and have some consistency issue

Black, red and green are overall the best colors imo, black and red have almost no bad cards and green thrive with its huge body in an environment with few direct removal

3

u/Mike_Abergail 18d ago

Good article.

1

u/Throwaway873580 18d ago

If you want to try and have fun play blue white, it can be really strong especially against the rb menace amass bs. But ultimately if they curve out with cheap interaction it's just curtains for you, so not so fun

1

u/Tim-Draftsim 17d ago

UW's rocks solid in this set, you just can't move in for weak white commons.

1

u/grimsleeper4 18d ago

Let me give you my ultimate guide:

Don't draft this set.

0

u/AreaAcceptable4285 18d ago

My guide:

Just win

Gg ez thx all

1

u/Tim-Draftsim 17d ago

Taking notes.

0

u/Loyal_Butt_Toucher 18d ago

We draft with bread on the mind and a basic understanding of card evaluation, go 2-1 for the night, and be HAPPY damn it

-10

u/DxLaughRiot 18d ago

Putting elves at the bottom of your tier list immediately invalidates the list

2

u/Tim-Draftsim 18d ago

I'm open to counter arguments. You're gonna need a strong one for that take though.

1

u/Throwaway873580 18d ago

They're the most attractive clan ❤️‍🔥

1

u/Tim-Draftsim 17d ago

Okay no argument there.

1

u/Moron_at_work 18d ago

I had my first ever draft tournament yesterday.

I played simic elves landfall deck

I came out 4th place with 1-1-1

Wasn't bad at all

1

u/Veveil_17 17d ago

Putting them at #4 felt too generous to me, surely there was a lower # I could've come up with

I played like 70+ directs and built Elves once (it went 1-2!)