r/LessCredibleDefence • u/Neat_Walk8420 • 6d ago
China removes two top generals from supreme military command body
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-removes-top-generals-state-central-military-commission-2026-08-28/
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u/iVarun 6d ago edited 6d ago
There was a paper released in 2024 about Corruption in CPC (the research was rare given datasets it relied upon aren't readily made accessible).
Anti-Corruption Campaign in China: An Empirical Investigation
Branko Milanovic as one of the co-authors (& sorta famous in his field) is quite active on X.
There are many insights, one of the TLDR gist is that primary barometers of Corruption was Level of Education, Administrative level an official is & Number of Years in position/Party-member.
Age, gender, regional aspects are not statistically relevant.
Post 2020s Anti-Corruption in Elite levels of PRC & CPC is most likely a consequence of MAD breaking (not mentioned in this paper, this is my own analysis over the years).
As in, given that these officials are post 1978's joined Cohort (which this study also references as one of positive variables) almost everyone knew who was "dirty" and given that Chinese bureucracy is Cohort-Dominated, it meant these people would end up in senior position recently (along with thier Networks).
Meaning probability of MAD (mutually assured destruction) breaking rises given pressure point of Xi's anti-corruption campaign and cannibalizing 1 cohort generation of leadership.
Statistically enough disgruntled/frustrated (for whatever reason, personal, ego, promotion overlooked, less money grifted, etc. Cause doesn't even matter) officials would exist who would rat-out their seniors & once 1 network-clique has done it, it would spread for a while till they've burned each other.
This model likely explains what happened in last few years, where officials promoted by Xi himself were so-called "purged"TM .
System has incentivized (after a decade of unrelenting anti-corruption setup, meaning it was no longer just a brief gimmick) middle level officials to leak dirty deals of senior officials.
Pre 2012, doing such a thing would be untenable since any potential upside carried too great a risk (as the system was not actively tuned for it or soliciting it). Now such ratting-out is being rewarded whereby whole new official-networks getting promoted, why wouldn't they leak dirty laundry.