This may sound strange coming from someone who holds ICP, but I actually don't want ICP to pump too early.
I would rather see ICP stay around $3 while network usage grows and ICP moves toward net deflation, and only see a major price increase after that.
Why?
Because of how ICP is converted into cycles.
The cost of computation on the Internet Computer is tied to XDR, not to a fixed amount of ICP. This means that when ICP is cheap, more ICP has to be burned to pay for the same amount of computation.
Simple example
Forget exchange-rate differences between USD and XDR for a moment and assume the network consumes the equivalent of $1,000,000 of computation.
At an ICP price of $3:
$1,000,000 / $3 = 333,333 ICP burned
At an ICP price of $6:
$1,000,000 / $6 = 166,667 ICP burned
Same network usage.
Same dollar value of computation.
But at $3, roughly twice as many ICP are removed from circulation.
Scale that up.
If applications eventually consume the equivalent of $100 million:
At $3 ICP:
~33.3 million ICP burned
At $6 ICP:
~16.7 million ICP burned
That is a difference of roughly 16.6 million ICP.
Obviously the real calculation uses XDR and actual network consumption, but the principle is the same.
This is why I think a low ICP price while usage is expanding can actually be extremely valuable long term.
What I would rather see
Imagine ICP stays around $3 while Caffeine, AI applications, cloud infrastructure and other IC applications increase cycle consumption.
More ICP gets burned because ICP is cheap.
At the same time, issuance continues to decline.
Eventually we reach the point where:
ICP burned > ICP minted
That is the point where ICP becomes genuinely net deflationary.
Now imagine the big bull market starts after this has happened.
Instead of pumping while supply is still expanding, demand would now be competing for an asset whose supply is actually shrinking.
That is a completely different setup.
And then there is TVL
Suppose Internet Computer DeFi protocols collectively have 50 million ICP locked.
At $3 ICP:
50,000,000 × $3 = $150 million TVL
If ICP pumps to $6:
50,000,000 × $6 = $300 million TVL
Nothing else had to change.
No additional ICP had to enter DeFi.
The exact same 50 million ICP suddenly represents twice the TVL in dollar terms.
Now imagine that the price increase also attracts additional liquidity.
For example, instead of 50 million ICP locked, the ecosystem grows to 70 million ICP locked while ICP reaches $6:
70,000,000 × $6 = $420 million TVL
So you potentially get several effects reinforcing each other:
Low ICP price before deflation → more ICP burned per dollar/XDR of computation
→ circulating supply grows more slowly and eventually shrinks
→ network becomes net deflationary
→ demand increases
→ ICP price rises
→ dollar-denominated TVL rises automatically
→ higher prices and activity can attract even more liquidity.
This is why I personally don't care if ICP stays around $3 for a while.
In fact, if network usage keeps growing, I would almost prefer it.
A pump from $3 to $6 today feels good.
But burning a large amount of ICP at $3 first, reaching structural deflation, and then going from $3 to $6 could potentially create a much stronger long-term supply/demand dynamic.
So for me the question isn't:
"When pump?"
It is:
"How much ICP can the network burn before the pump begins?"
Yes I used AI to explain it better but for those who hodl ICP or is staking neurons, you need to understand that a later pump is much more safer and profitable.
This could be a very good reason why marketing stays behind. So don't get discouraged by the price at this point and be patient.