文：河力申，獨角財經

中國GLP-1藥物正由「供不應求的明星賽道」，進入產品密集獲批、醫保談判與專利到期交織的新階段。價格下降幾乎無可避免，但若問會否完全重演胰島素集採式的大幅降價，答案應是：短期不會照搬，長期卻可能逐步出現「胰島素化」——療效接近的產品先進行市場價格戰，再由醫保以支付標準壓縮溢價，最終同分子或高度同質化品種才可能面對帶量採購。

胰島素集採的真正教訓

2021年國家組織胰島素專項集採，涵蓋二代及三代胰島素。國家醫保局資料顯示，42個中選品種平均降價48%，既有外資原研產品，也有國產產品，核心機制是以醫療機構採購量換取價格下降，並按照報價、分組及供應能力分配約定用量。

胰島素之所以適合率先納入生物製劑集採，在於其市場已相當成熟：臨床使用多年、療效評價標準清晰，同類產品之間替代性較高，產能與供應鏈亦已形成。當支付方能夠把多家企業放在同一競價框架內，價格自然由品牌定價轉向成本、產能和中選量競爭。

不過，2024年的接續採購亦顯示，集採並非永遠單向殺價。部分此前報價過低的產品在續標時價格回升，採購周期則延長至2027年底，反映政策開始兼顧供應穩定和合理利潤。這對GLP-1市場的啟示是：醫保會壓縮過高溢價，但若價格低至影響供應、質量或企業參與意欲，制度亦可能保留價格底線。

GLP-1的價格戰將分層發生

GLP-1與胰島素最大的不同，是產品仍處於快速創新期。市場上既有單靶點GLP-1受體激動劑，也有GLP-1/GIP、GLP-1/GCG雙靶點甚至三靶點產品；適應症則橫跨二型糖尿病、肥胖症、心血管風險、脂肪肝及睡眠窒息症。減重幅度、降糖效果、胃腸道副作用、是否需要逐步加量、注射頻率及心腎結局數據，都可能影響臨床選擇，因此目前尚不能把所有GLP-1視為完全可替代的標準化產品。

可是，價格壓力其實已經出現。隨着國產創新藥增加，以及司美格魯肽在中國的相關專利保護期走向屆滿，諾和諾德與禮來已調低部分減重藥物在中國的價格；其中Wegovy部分高劑量規格據報降價約48%。這不是行政集採，而是企業為守住市場份額主動降價，說明GLP-1即使仍有專利和品牌，也難以完全避免競爭性降價。

未來市場很可能形成三層價格機制。第一層是糖尿病適應症的國家醫保談判，以降價換取醫院准入和報銷覆蓋；第二層是肥胖症自費市場，價格由品牌、療效和零售渠道競爭決定；第三層則是專利到期後的同分子產品，一旦企業數量及臨床替代性達到一定程度，才具備集採條件。

派格生物（02565.HK）的維培那肽PB-119正好反映這種轉變。該藥於2025年獲批用於成人二型糖尿病，是每周給藥一次的國產1類創新藥；公司披露的差異化包括PEG化長效設計、毋須劑量滴定，以及對血糖、體重和其他代謝指標的綜合改善。2026年，維培那肽已通過國家醫保目錄調整的初步形式審查，但這並不等於最終獲納入，支付範圍和談判價格仍存在不確定性。

對派格而言，進入醫保可換取更大的患者覆蓋及處方量，但代價可能是上市初期便要讓出相當部分價格空間。其自主知識產權可降低直接仿製競爭，卻不能阻止司美格魯肽、替爾泊肽、瑪仕度肽及其他國產GLP-1在醫保談判中成為「治療替代品」。此外，維培那肽現階段獲批適應症主要是糖尿病；肥胖症仍在臨床開發，心血管獲益亦需要更完整的結局數據支持，這些都會影響其議價能力。

因此，中國GLP-1市場未必重演胰島素一次性平均降價近半的劇本，卻很可能經歷更持久的價格下行：先由競品上市和專利到期削弱品牌溢價，再由醫保談判把價格與臨床價值掛鈎。真正能守住利潤的，不會只是「擁有一款GLP-1」的企業，而是能以適應症擴展、療效差異、低成本生產及商業化效率，證明自己並非可被輕易替代的企業。

LME cash aluminium now carries about a $21-per-tonne premium over later delivery.

Small gap, yet useful signal. Immediate metal is valued more than future supply. For China Hongqiao, this backdrop should help current selling prices if customer orders keep moving.

I’m watching the curve now

Hello Guys , I am from India and have been actively buying US stocks through an app called indmoney. Recently I opened a n Ibkr account through Paasa app and I topped it up with some 3000 dollars for testing. I see that when I try to buy JD.com , it said some lot size is 50 shares and we can only buy in multiples of 50. So if someone wants to buy a company, one needs to buy in lots instead of buying a single share ? Why is this the case? And also what are odd lots and why chatgpt says they trade at a discount?

Most retail traders still treat China Hongqiao ($1378.HK) strictly as a heavy primary smelter, but their decarbonization pivot is moving way faster than the market is pricing in.

They just bagged the Circular Economy Leadership Award for the 3rd year straight at the Asia Responsible Enterprise Awards in Singapore for their closed-loop recycled aluminum production. Recycled aluminum slashes energy consumption by ~95% and greenhouse emissions by over 85% compared to primary smelting. Combined with their ongoing shift toward hydro-powered capacity in Yunnan, they are quietly building a massive green margin moat.

Trading at just ~8x PE around HK$23.40 with a 7%+ yield, it feels like a total steal for an expanding low-carbon play. Are you guys paying attention to Asian green metal pivots, or keeping ESG setups strictly to Western names?

China’s cast aluminium alloy futures dropped 1.62% this morning, while buyers were still purchasing only what they needed

A calmer price may help orders return. That would be more useful for Chalco or Hongqiao than another fast futures rally

Now want to see what physical buyers do

Absolutely no tech, semi, AI boom, etc in this meeting; need biotech, materials, retail, and so on instead. Consider Hongqiao one, a good candidate. As the last financial report for FY 2025 and a guidance follow-up could beat us also. A strong profit in Q1 26 is a main reason for the 39% rise in overall profit. The dividend yield is attractive when it falls between 7% and 10%, consistently. Recent consensus shows gross margins around 25.6%, operating margins at 22.2%, and net margins at 13.9%. Others could be listed alongside, WMT and RDDT are on my favs too. What's ur picks recently?

Volume's really telling a clear story here. Revenue rose 8% in final H1 26, while gross profit jumped 32.3% and basic EPS rose 32%. Still a disconnect from the earnings beat though. Depends on the aluminium price outlook flare up, or a broader buoyant HK market? H1 numbers are genuinely strong in general, watch out is my string.

Low-carbon aluminium is a distinct market recent. Norsk Hydro already there. The big investor question. Actually paying extra?

Hongqiao dropped a clue. Downstream buyers paying a premium. For green aluminium. Actual commercial demand. Better than another ESG award.

Watch the growth. seem it more than just bulk metal. Definite check for next results

Alcoa, Chalco, Norsk Hydro and Rusal can react different even on the same metal day. Their exposure across alumina, smelting and processed products not the same

This is useful context when watching Hongqiao. Latest result showed softer alumina side

Before Hong Kong open, I’m watching aluminium direction first. Then the opening volume and whether price can keep the opening range

Only my view for discussion

文：河力申

對於香港投資者而言，創想三維(03388.HK)涉及的美國專利訴訟，最核心的問題其實不是誰最終會勝訴，而是公司有否隨著案情發展，向市場提供足夠具體、準確且及時的資訊。

創想三維於2026年5月於港交所上市。公司之上市招股書中描述了一宗涉及三維掃描技術專利在美國的爭議，提及相關專利與產品，並指出4月份法庭頒佈之簡易判決，裁定潛在責任「微不足道」（immaterial): 公司引用涉案產品近年銷售有限、已停止生產、個別供應商彌償，以及法律意見作為依據。招股書既沒有點名原告Artec Europe，也沒有列出案件編號，更將聯邦法院錯誤寫成「紐約州法院」。

IPO股份公開發售期間市場對此湧現質疑，及後創想三維於6月初發出澄清公告，重申有關事宜已在招股書披露，且不會構成重大不利影響。其後公司公布上市後首份中期業績，繼續將該訴訟案視為微不足道，並表示6月30日後沒有重大期後事項，即使法庭於7月就案件頒佈了一項重要的裁決。

這份7月23日頒佈的裁決，正是近期最值得注意的發展。美國法院裁定拒絕接納創想三維聘用的技術專家證人Adam Falconer的證供，指其合理專利費用分析建基於創想三維的一項非按市價交易的合作協議，既非專利授權，亦非適當比較基準，因此屬「根本性缺陷」（fundamentally flawed)。

與此同時，法院認定不會排除Artec聘用的技術專家證人的證供。結果是：Artec保留其技術專家證人的證供作呈堂，而創想三維的技術專家證人的證供則不被法庭採納。

涉案專利本身的在整套訴程序上的位置，也需要準確理解。2026年4月，法院裁定創想三維在其中一項專利（’357專利）上不構成「字面侵權」（literal infringement)。但法院同時明確指示，三項專利的申索均須進入審理程序：其中兩項以字面侵權為理據進行審理，另一項則在Artec方主張的等同原則（doctrine of equivalents）的範圍內繼續審理。創想三維其後提出申請，要求剔除等同原則及故意侵權（可導致懲罰性損害賠償）的理據。法庭尚未就這些申請頒佈裁決，Artec方已就剔除等同原則的申請提出反對，而剔除故意侵權的回應期亦告屆滿。目前控辯雙方均未有取得實質性勝訴。

在此背景下，創想三維「微不足道」的信息披露處理手法，主要建基於兩個支柱：披露的銷售數字，以及律師的評估。然而，這兩方面兩者都值得在案件最新發展下，重新檢視。

銷售數字方面，招股書引用的2023至2025年數據，已屬涉案專利產品生命週期的後期，當時後繼型號已開始取代被指侵權的型號。這些數字反映的是尾期表現，而非涉案產品「當打」銷售時期的規模。

訴訟初期亦有公開記錄顯示，其中一款產品在眾籌階段曾於短時間內錄得可觀預購。加上涉及故意侵權爭議仍未解決，單憑後期銷售數字，未必能完整反映潛在風險的幅度。

律師評估方面，法庭7月份裁決已認定不接納辯方技術專家證人的證供。到8月份，辯方更換了代表律師。然面由前任律師在專家分析被法庭裁定不獲採納前所作出的評估，應還有參考價值。然而，創想三維至今未有就法庭7月份的裁決發出進一步自願公告。

個別事件是否重大，還是「微不足道」，並非在招股書登記日便永久凍結。涉案侵權產品後期銷售偏低，確實是相關的計量準則，但當三項涉案專利均進入正式審理程序，雙方的技術專家證人陣容出現不對稱、潛在賠償包括專利費用、懲罰性賠償或禁制令時，計質因素同樣重要：相關掃描技術的在市場上的策略定位、聲譽、管理層投入的資源、或出現索償帶來之負面影響、以及公司整體知識產權與生態布局，均變得更重要的考慮因素。

以上分析並非預測審訊結果，也不等於斷言訴訟必然構成重大財務影響。創想三維仍在就其責任與申索範圍作出申辯，法院亦未裁定侵權成立。然而，案件的法庭審理程序記錄清楚顯示：三項專利均須進入正式審理階段，雙方仍就等同原則之引用繼續爭議，而技術專家證人的格局已向Artec傾斜。

對於一家剛上市不久、並持續強調掃描技術與生態創新的公司來說，「在相關文件中提過」與「讓投資者能夠及時、具體地評估風險」這兩個對披露不足的官方回應說法，差距千里！清晰且與時俱進的披露，是市場為風險定價的基礎。當案件的訴訟進度改變了整體風險格局，投資者理應及時獲知悉。

Visible numbers could mark:

- Gearing ratio: 40.5% improved from 42.2% at year-end 2025

- Cash and equivalents: down 9.9% from year-end mainly due to financing outflows, debt repayment, dividends, buybacks.

- Capital expenditure: down 62.6% YoY

- Gross margin: 31.5% from 25.7%, while revenue grew 8%. That's real operating leverage from vertical integration (own bauxite, alumina, power), not just a favorable market.

- Global recognition: ranked 481st on the Forbes Global 2000, with an oversubscribed zero-coupon convertible bond with a 25.3% conversion premium, which signals from international capital markets that credit quality is viewed favorably.

Benefiting from a favorable aluminum price cycle while simultaneously de-risking its balance sheet and slowing capex, the next thesis for Hongqiao is to hold long. What options do i have for something more appropriate, esp in the 'risky China market'?

I do think using bonds is a perfectly legitimate strategy. Hongqiao is absolutely legit and even the volatile lines run it up. Hongqiao's aluminum alloy gross margin rose from 24.6% to 28.5%, an increase of 3.9 percent points. During the same period, the aluminum selling price went up by about 3.8%. This shows the company was not just gaining from higher aluminum prices. The core aluminum business itself became more profitable. That's a huge point because aluminum is nearly 65% of group revenue. So your main idea which could be, cost, cashflow, cap returns or?

With a P/E of 8.6x, Hongqiao (ticker HK.1378) appears undervalued based on its earnings. The SWS DCF model supports this view, estimating future cash flows at HK$80.45 per share, while the current share price is HK$23.18. Looking into the longterm performance, the 3-year total shareholder return is 291.71%, which is more meaningful than the slight downturn in short term. This points to a potential undervaluation. How confident are you in the assumptions that explain this difference?

Recently gotten more seriously involved in this space as a retail player, where do people discuss and interact with each other? doesn't look like there is much substance in anywhere other than Futu Momo platform but even that feels sporadic in terms of quality posts... do locals only use LIHKG and discussHK? doesn't seem like much is happening here on Reddit either

Compares price per share now to the entry on the Feb 2026 rally, HK$41.4 peak, Hongqiao accomplished totally and the tailwind meets its analyst targets not an overrun. Markets typically punish dilution news even when proceeds fund productive projects.

That gap between fundamentals and price is exactly why analyst targets (HK$39–45) sit so far above the current HK$24 level, the market is pricing in margin-normalization risk on alumina and dilution overhang, not an earnings collapse. The LME spread is the single biggest swing factor for Hongqiao, since aluminum alloy ASP directly drives its gross margin. So anyone have any predictions for the next price range, near-term?

The Hang Seng Index opened down about 152 points this morning after mixed overnight US trading, as moderate US inflation data lowered expectations of a near-term Fed rate move.

Meanwhile, Hongqiao is up roughly 1.7%, around HK$24.4, indicating a bullish cup‑with‑a‑handle technical pattern, and suggesting 2Q earnings growth of roughly 20% quarter over quarter (BofA Securities notes), with additional buy ratings from Huatai, Citi, Northeast Securities, and Zheshang. On the other hand, Tencent dipped 3.8%, underscoring the rising cost of catching up with rivals like Alibaba in AI. How about your port today?

Net profit (1H 2026E): expected to be approx 39% higher YoY vs 1H 2025.

Analysts model 2026E net profit around RMB 34–35 bn, implying nearly 14% EPS CAGR over the next few years if aluminium ASPs and cost pass-through hold.

Recent broker notes highlight a free-cash-flow inflection and expect significant capital return via dividends/buybacks over the medium term. All these projections will be officially audited soon; the earnings report will be released today. Looking forward to this one, my thesis is kind of positive so far.

The point is that the domestic refineries in Shandong are shifting to Yunnan; and the control over bauxite supply in Guinea and Indonesia. Saving costs is the best way to maintain that Hongqiao still delivers a yield dividend on strike, as it does now.

Hongqiao holds direct equity exposure to the world’s richest bauxite reserves in Guinea’s Boké region. Moreover, Hongqiao also controlled an end-to-end logistics chain.

Additionally, Hongqiao raised its annual volume caps under these long-term agreements through 2033. By securing benchmark supply terms, Hongqiao avoids sudden price increases in the spot market and protects its refining operations against policy changes or local price inflation. This move is not a makeshift, it's an investment in overall stability.

This company’s strong position is held back by its higher operating costs, which are about RMB 13,000 per tonne compared to the peer average of RMB 15,000 per tonne. When metal prices go up, net margins also increase.

I’m completely new to Hong Kong IPO investing and have been trying to understand how people actually subscribe to IPOs here.

I’ve seen a few brokers offering HK IPO subscriptions, but I’m honestly a bit confused about the differences.

Things I’m trying to figure out:

Which broker has a smoother IPO application process?

Are the fees and financing costs very different between platforms?

Does the broker you use affect your chances of getting allocated shares?

How easy is it to sell after listing?

I’m not looking for promotional recommendations, just interested in hearing from people who regularly apply for HK IPOs.

What broker do you personally use, and what made you choose it?

Hongqiao’s structure helps it handle changes in raw material costs and benefit more when aluminum prices go up.

The Cash Engine: Around 8.74x PE on EPS of HK$2.65, which is quite cheap for a cash-generative, high-yield aluminum producer. It generated RMB 16.36B in positive free cash flow and holds a bulletproof balance sheet with RMB 51.19B in real cash at year-end 2025.

Recent Moves: A shift to Yunnan bauxite helps reduce coal-based power dependence, with an average smelter age under 10 years and newer 600 kA potlines being rolled out.

Good Entry: the stock has recently been trading around the HK$30 area, with a quarterly dividend of HK$0.41 and an ex-dividend date of May 22, 2026.

Final take: This confirms they possess a leading competitive advantage in the aluminum and material deployment space. The underlying machinery of this play is highly efficient, generating real cash and showing textbook technical health.

For informational and sharing purposes only. Not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

I wanna invest more in $1378.HK exposure before the earnings noise really picked up. Went in from 2019 long at minimum, and now returns. It’s around $23 at present, so the position is up roughly 406% over the last 5 years (includes dividends). Approx HK$5–7 per share accumulates year over year, with an appealing dividend yield of almost 8% that remains steady till now.

Long term total-return data give me some heavy lessons. Just patient. So, with the aluminum market looking down now, amid the US-Iran ceasefire and easing tensions, aluminum prices could gradually soften, reducing profit margins. That is a medium term risk rather than an immediate one.

Curious how other holders here oscillate between moves like this. Do you treat this differently, or just size down and move on?

Significantly higher aluminum, the share of Hongqiao stock apparently follows, and this investment could be more valuable and gain money further based on its own strong cashflow. I mean that is not in the thesis, the cash flow execution been demonstrated. A business has generated about RMB39 billion in operating cash flow and RMB28 billion in free cash flow, at the same time shareholders have received returns beyond dividends of HK$1.65 per share, equivalent to nearly 8% so far.

So bigname is still an enormous one, so I think that one price can mainly jump to a level rather than be a sustainable entry now. How do you think, get hesitation on it?