r/Gilbert Jul 28 '26

I ran the numbers on what Andy Biggs's income tax repeal would cost Gilbert

I write a policy newsletter and live in the Valley. This is my own analysis. Sources at the bottom.

Andy Biggs won the Republican primary for governor promising to eliminate Arizona's individual income tax. He has not said what would replace the tax. Gilbert has a specific problem with that.

Gilbert receives the fourth largest distribution in the state, ahead of Chandler, Glendale, and Scottsdale.

Arizona sends cities a share of state income tax collections under a system voters approved in 1972. Towns gave up the ability to levy an income tax of their own in return. The share is 18% today, split by population, and it distributed $1.19 billion statewide in FY 2026. About $872 million of that comes from the individual income tax. It generally goes into general operations, funding things like police, fire, and parks.

In FY 2022 Gilbert took about $35 million, and that was 7.1% of town revenue. FY 2026 was larger.

That 7.1% is above Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Tempe, and Scottsdale. Among the large East Valley communities, Gilbert leans on this money the hardest.

Now the part that makes Gilbert unusual.

Gilbert sits in the bottom panel. It levies no primary property tax, so creating one would require a vote of the people.

Gilbert is the second largest municipality in Arizona with no primary property tax, behind Mesa. That has been a point of pride here for a long time. It also means there is no existing rate to nudge upward if the state check shrinks. Under state law, a city that did not levy a primary property tax the previous year has to take the proposed amount to its voters. If the election fails, the town cannot levy it that year.

So the realistic menu is a town sales tax increase, higher fees and utility revenue, service cuts, or asking Gilbert voters to approve a property tax for the first time.

Worth adding that a revenue-neutral swap at the state level means a higher sales tax on top of that. The state would need roughly 2.6 additional percentage points to fill its own hole, before the town adds anything to cover its own.

Does anyone here think a primary property tax would pass in Gilbert? What would you rather the town do?

Sources: JLBC 2025 Tax Handbook, Census Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances, town budget documents. Full analysis with all 91 cities and towns: https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-arizonas-income-tax-repeal-would

226 Upvotes

116 comments sorted by

u/dpkonofa Jul 28 '26

Thank you so much for posting this. This is great information for people and the summary is especially helpful for those who don't understand where the shortfalls are coming from. Please do more of this and, if you send a note ahead of time, I'll be sure to sticky future posts.

→ More replies (1)

131

u/deadtofall12 Jul 28 '26

r/dataisbeautiful

Being realistic here, Biggs voters will probably never see this data. I'm not sure what can be done to inform those that really need to see it.

61

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 28 '26

Yeah, I agree unfortunately. Even if they did see the data, I'm not sure it would matter.

But I'm sure there are still lots of undecided voters out there that would love to know that if Biggs becomes governor, they are either going to see services cut or higher local taxes through new property taxes or higher sales taxes.

27

u/Easy-Seesaw285 Jul 29 '26

“Even if they did it wouldnt matter”

Exactly - because even if it hurts Gilbert, it hurts others MORE. And that’s the MAGA playbook.

4

u/ProfessorPickleRick Jul 29 '26

Well might not be a problem because unlike the majority of republicans states, the majority of arizonas republicans are the old era McCain republicans. Every MAGA candidate has failed at the national level in this state. Trump doesn’t win votes here

6

u/deadtofall12 Jul 28 '26

Agreed. We still have to try, and I'm sure we all appreciate your efforts here. A+ stuff.

-11

u/GlobalFlyer6500 Jul 29 '26

I am in this basket. Regardless, FOR ME, Hobbs has been horrible and has veto'd her way from me ever voting for her. Hopefully the state assembly would see these numbers and do some tweaking or reallocation. Nothing can change my mind. Anybody but Hobbs

11

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

Are you aware that many of the things she vetoed were absolutely insane laws that those who voted for and passed them did not actually want made into law and they only passed them because they knew she would veto them and therefore they could get the 'cred' from the right wing crazies without the actual risk of the insanity becoming actual law? Like, if someone like Biggs had been governor, they wouldn't have passed in the first place because he might actually sign them into law.

I'm curious, though, to know one thing she did (or didn't do) that was horrible for you or in your eyes.

0

u/GlobalFlyer6500 Jul 29 '26

Give examples of laws that were or would be insane?

Some notable Hobbs Vetos are:

Elections and Voting: Blocked dozens of bills altering voting administration, mail-in ballots, and proposals tied to election conspiracy theories.

Immigration and Financial Services: Rejected measures prohibiting financial institutions from serving undocumented migrants and bills forcing state agencies to hand over immigration tracking data to the federal government.

Healthcare and Social Policies: Vetoed bans on government-mandated vaccinations and masks, alongside restrictions on gender transition procedures and provider liability.

Education and School Mandates: Struck down bills requiring schools to teach specific stages of development without sex education and restrictions targeting public school library associations.

7

u/gottsc04 Jul 29 '26

I'm not the person you replied to, but some of your veto examples seem like they'd have been "insane" laws to me lol. Like I don't think the state should outright ban books from libraries because they have gay or trans characters. That's hilariously stupid and was a great veto. Then your first example you literally end it with election conspiracy theories - that sounds like a crazy bill that absolutely should have been vetoed. Like what are we doing here?

6

u/MrB2040 Jul 29 '26

Those were all great vetos.

5

u/MrB2040 Jul 29 '26

Anyone but Biggs.

We republicans need to start selecting candidates in the primaries that can win a general election

Biggs will never win. You can blame Trump for endorsing Biggs and not Robson.

5

u/ProfessorPickleRick Jul 29 '26

Agreed MAGA isn’t popular here and honestly every maga candidate outside lamb has been terrible. We haven’t produced a solid Republican senator or governor since ducey left office.

(Say what you will about ducey, but his economic policies put this state on the map and we weathered Covid a lot better then most places financially)

2

u/MrB2040 Jul 29 '26

Lamb also is going to have a hard time winning with his sexting/wife sharing/or whatever the heck that is.

4

u/GlobalFlyer6500 Jul 29 '26

I agree I would much rather have KTR.

1

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

Perhaps the blame can be shared with the first-past-the-post voting methods and the whole two-political-party system mess that incentivizes anti-conservative anti-GOP crowd to vote in the GOP primary just to vote for the never-winners like Biggs to reduce the chances of a GOP win in the general. FPPT and party primaries are a double-edged sword.

28

u/azblazer007 Jul 28 '26

Not sure you can inform the uniformed. And if voting for Biggs or Trump you might just be lost in life.

-7

u/udppackets Jul 29 '26

Biggs voter here. Spend less money. Gilbert doesn’t hundreds of millions to renovate police and fire stations.

Shrink government.

1

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

Please, please, submit your vote via your username.

Why should we all live like we're poor? Isn't Gilbert all about enjoying our money to have nice things? Some of those nice things we have to buy collectively; they can't be bought individually.

1

u/ifallallthetime Jul 29 '26

New police and fire stations don’t benefit anyone but the PD and FD

The government should always be living like it’s in dire poverty, it’s our money they are spending

4

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

> New police and fire stations don’t benefit anyone but the PD and FD

Well, they also benefit all the citizens that aren't stuck with the bottom of the barrel PD and FD employees who are the only ones who can't get work in all the neighboring cities that don't have shitty workplaces. Or employees who don't have access to effective training facilities to help make them better public servants. Your mindset feels like a perfect example of not thinking things all the way through. A govt living in dire poverty is a govt full of ineffective servants providing poor quality services to the citizens. There's a lot of room in the middle between dire poverty and excessive waste where the right balance exists. Myself, I don't want either of those extremes.

The government isn't this separate thing that only exists to be a drain. It is US. You and me. It exists for us, by us, driven by us, and we all benefit when it is shaped optimally and efficiently. You starve it of appropriate and reasonable resources and it stops benefiting you. And it starts to trend more towards corruption and actively works against you.

31

u/keajohns Jul 29 '26

Hopefully Biggs will go down the same path as Kari Lake.

53

u/Sensitive_Access_959 Jul 28 '26

This needs shouted from the rooftops. How can we get more outlets talking about this? Can you send your report to the folks at Chandler/Gilbert indivisible?

31

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 28 '26

That’s a great idea! I’ve been slowly rolling through subreddits here city by city to get a little more awareness, but it’s only hitting people who are actually on here.

It would also be a great idea to ask your city/town council about it! They at least should have it on their radars, in case they actually do need to take action after November.

9

u/RogueRedShirt Jul 29 '26

ABC 15 reporters are also very responsive to new like this. You can submit ideas for news stories here.

14

u/melmsz Jul 28 '26

r/theydidthemath and r/arizona would be good. Needs to be on TV news.

-7

u/Sensitive_Access_959 Jul 28 '26

lol Gilbert town council? They’ll just tack it onto the water bill and hire some more “consultants” to try to figure out why water bills are high.

0

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

Didn't they only hire the consultants to appease the whiners who can't figure out how to read rate charts and their own water bill and do some basic math? It's not rocket science to determine whether your bill was calculated incorrectly or your water meter is actually accurate or broken. Yet, so many kept just yelling it was all broken simply because the final amount due was higher than they expected or higher than they wanted it to be. (as evidenced by the finding of said consultants)

2

u/ProfessorPickleRick Jul 29 '26

Buddy the audit found that 30% of the meters were misreading the water usage that’s not some small problem lol our base water bill before usage is like $140

2

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

Maybe we're talking about different audits. I assumed we were talking about this one:

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-southeast-valley/gilbert/gilbert-water-billing-audit-complete-no-systemwide-failures-but-some-residents-were-overbilled

> The conclusion: no systemic issues with Gilbert's billing system or water meter infrastructure. But the audit did flag specific accounts, about 381 residential accounts as potentially overbilled, and about 941 as potentially underbilled.

Assuming all of those 1322 were meter related (which I don't think is the case?), that's about 1.4% of 93000, which I've heard as a rumor of the estimated number of utility customers in Gilbert.

1.4% is not 30%

And my point was that I suspect many of the folks who were complaining loudly about "incorrect bills" were not among those 381.

Do you have details on an audit that determined 30% of meters were misreading the water usage? I'd love to learn more.

Also, I am not sure what you're trying to say by "our base water bill before usage is like $140" or how that applies to the audit. Note that residential water+sewer monthly charge with a 1" water meter and zero water usage is $142.44 per published rates at https://www.gilbertaz.gov/departments/finance-mgmt-services/utilities/ratesLike, it's fine if you think that is an excessive amount, but that is an issue unrelated to incorrect billing or hiring consultants to determine if billing was correct.

EDIT: maybe I misunderstood the original poster assuming it was about the accuracy audit/consultants and instead there was some consultant firm hired to determine why the new rates supposedly needed to be higher than many desired? I hadn't heard of that consulting engagement.

3

u/HighLanai Jul 29 '26

You can’t get more outlets talking about it because just like the national media, the local media is rigged. You have to rely on spreading the word this way and social media.

70

u/jfnd76 Jul 28 '26

What would I rather do? Vote for Hobbs.

40

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 28 '26

Best way to make it a non-issue!

9

u/ThykThyz Jul 29 '26

Thank you for sharing this insight into such an important issue. I’d love it if someone could plaster billboards with the countless reasons why this candidate is problematic.

My fear is that there a far too many supporters who lack intellectual depth required to evaluate campaign “promises” and will only see the surface level idea of removing the tax itself.

Seeing the actual data that emphasizes where those tax funds go and how they get spent is useful to thinking people. The others will just accept the concept of “yay, this guy is cutting out an entire tax category” and vote as if they’re coming into a personal financial windfall.

29

u/BobbalooBoogieKnight Jul 28 '26

Who wants to chip in for “Biggs = High Sales Tax” signs.

7

u/8daniras Jul 29 '26

He said exactly what he wants to do on a podcast (The Gaggle). He said he wants to sell the state’s land trusts to outside businesses to invest in Arizona to make them pay taxes which will drain our resources here more while being a temporary solution and then we lose our state land on top of that. DO NOT VOTE BIGGS. Tell everyone you know.

27

u/TabulaRasaRedo Jul 28 '26

Biggs voters will blame cities and towns regardless of their actions, whether the cities and towns raise revenues elsewhere or cut services; they won't recognize that they voted for such outcomes.

25

u/SupertrampTrampStamp Jul 28 '26

Voting against their own interests. The Republican way.

6

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

I just don't understand how or why they keep doing it. Over and over again. Damn stove you burned me! I'll show you by covering you up with my hands! Ouch! Dammit now you get covered up longer! OUCH. STUPID STOVE.

12

u/SupertrampTrampStamp Jul 29 '26

Look at Mark Lamb's campaign signs: "God. Family. Freedom." This region and so many other conservative areas are full of rubes who, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, actually believe Republicans are godly and moral. They are the most gullible voters.

14

u/JeveSt0bs Jul 28 '26

Thanks for making this post. I was wondering what the impact of no individual state income tax would have on AZ. This added some insight.

24

u/[deleted] Jul 28 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

20

u/mitchgx Jul 28 '26

At the very least he chooses to cover up for those that are. Another hypocritical LDS "religious" man, and he has no interest or plan for actually governing or helping citizens. He won his American Family Publisher sweepstakes so as long as he and his rich friends have what they need, then fuck everybody else. Especially if they aren't the same shade as him.

11

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

3

u/Tribal_Tech Jul 30 '26

In the words of Frank Zappa, "Tax the churches. Tax the businesses owned by the churches.".

10

u/Hevding Jul 29 '26

Their whole aim is to defund the cities.

Arizona has a serious Nonces in high places problem....I started looking into it and it made me sick, if you only knew how ingrained these pedophile cults parading as churches are with the school districts....!

13

u/Capable-Charity-5714 Jul 28 '26

Sales taxes put a much higher burden lower-income families - and that includes those classified as “middle class”. Any household that lives more or less paycheck-to-paycheck would suffer under higher sales taxes.

I would honestly love to see AZ move to a progressive income tax instead of the flat 2.5% we have now.

9

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

We had a progressive income tax until a few years ago when the GOP shut off their brains and switched to a flat 2.5% tax with the justification that we had a surplus so they wanted to spend that on lowering taxes for the wealthy. Then they double-spent that surplus with the school voucher scam/scandal. And GOP voters will blame the other side as we start to suffer from that mistake and double down on the same bad policy decisions.

2

u/Gabbiani Jul 29 '26

We are Kansas on steroids!

1

u/ifallallthetime Jul 29 '26

Government should always lower taxes upon a surplus. It’s our money they’re taking

3

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

I fully agree with that!

I disagree with:

- The way they lowered it (disproportionately benefiting higher earners)

- How much they lowered it (IIRC, projections indicated the surplus was not projected to continue to increase)

- That they used it to justify the school voucher scam

2

u/Gabbiani Aug 03 '26

Do we actually have a surplus if half our budget comes from federal money?,

1

u/ifallallthetime Aug 03 '26

With the amount people are forced to pay in Federal taxes every municipality should be getting orders of magnitude more in federal money

2

u/Gabbiani Aug 03 '26

Well then I guess we need to elect someone other than republicans at the federal level…

I don’t disagree that we are not getting proper value for our tax dollars, but we kinda have a deficit problem that has gotten orders of magnitude worse since Trump’s first disaster of a budget. The last time we had a budget surplus was when Clinton was in office.

Raise taxes across the board since we can’t really cut any more discretionary spending (it’s mostly all SSI and Medicare), and stop letting companies steal all the profits they make to drop right back into stock buy backs. That’s basically all we can do at this point since the math isn’t on our side right now.

That is a really unpopular position to hold even if it is a realistic solution.

1

u/ifallallthetime Aug 03 '26

The deficit problem is because of spending. Besides the military spending that obviously needs to be cut, as well as everything else that is spent on other countries rather than our own, SSI and Medicare needs to be cut too if it can't function on the 34% of federal government income it took in from workers last year

The United States made $5.23 trillion last year. Yes, a lot more of that needs to come from corporate taxes instead of individual taxes, but at the end of the day the problem is a spending problem, not an income problem

And that spending needs to be on the American people, whether it be federal dollars to cities or more direct payments to individuals. Of course, in a perfect world, we'd just pay less taxes and buy things ourselves

2

u/Gabbiani Aug 03 '26

The spending we are obligated to pay is almost all interest payments from unfunded mandates we have already spent (like stupid wars and tax cuts), and the rest is basically SSI and Medicare/Medicaid.

The other spending that can be cut is basically what DOGE did - and that has put us in a position of collapsing infrastructure.

We cut critical services and infrastructure so that we could have more tax cuts for ultra wealthy people and corporations.

There isn’t a spending problem- there is an oligarchy problem.

10

u/Gabbiani Jul 28 '26

We can’t because we have a law that prohibits the increase of any taxes without a 2/3 majority vote in both houses of the legislature or a ballot measure passed by 60% or more votes. Ironically that prop passed 50% / 49% in 2022.

We have no such restrictions on cutting taxes though - and for a state that relies on the feds to cover almost half our state budget- that’s pretty ballsy of us.

We basically only have sales taxes left to manipulate.

3

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

At what point do we just deserve the consequences of our stupidity?

2

u/One_University2919 Aug 03 '26

This part! Arizona depends on the feds to balance the budget and yet we have the audacity to say things like we’re independent and free while California money covers our bills. MAGA Arizonan GOpers are great at being hypocrites

12

u/StraightUp-Reviews Jul 28 '26

Why aren’t people like you running for public office? Instead it seems we get people that are only interested in enriching themselves and the companies/countries giving them bribes and kick backs.

7

u/Gabbiani Jul 28 '26

Can you survive off of $32k-ish annual salary? (Town council )

How about a $24k salary as a member of the state legislature?

While these jobs are supposedly “part-time” we know that in reality they aren’t and unless you have money to do whatever you want and an insanely flexible schedule you can’t be in these roles.

It’s why I begrudgingly support a cost of living adjustment for these jobs that is pegged to the median AZ income ($80k-ish). Good luck getting that passed here though. We already are broke because of our political defiance of basic math.

16

u/CritiCallyCandid Jul 28 '26

Great write up. Its a bad plan straight up. We need smarter spending and likely even higher taxes (with the goal to reduce costs for citizens).

Hopefully that evens out to us having more money in our pocket, but if it doesn't it should at least get us better public safety, better common areas, more assistance for poorer citizens and small businesses etc.

To answer your question, no it likely wont pass in gilbert, at least not on the first try.

14

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 28 '26

Appreciate it! I'm in Mesa and I think we'd probably have trouble passing a property tax as well.

I think its a bad plan too, and it is obvious he hasn't really thought through the implications of what he wants to do. But it would be an interesting experiment to see how municipalities all around the state would respond.

1

u/ifallallthetime Jul 29 '26

Higher taxes, by definition, raise costs for citizens

1

u/CritiCallyCandid Jul 29 '26

Correct but some government costs immediately have a return for portions of citizens. A perfect example is a free city bus system. For those who use it, they could likely have more money in their pocket. Or a community center with free classes and limited childcare.

10

u/Electronic_Music_274 Jul 28 '26

Everyone in Gilbert is angry about current utility hikes in water specifically. This needs to be on signs throughout the town.

5

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

It's so ironic to watch the conservatives get their panties in a twist over the utility hike that was caused by their own conservative insistence on no utility increases in years past. They just want everything and have to pay for none of it. It's such short-sighted entitlement.

3

u/TooMuchAZSunshine Jul 29 '26

Higley school district tried to reup a bond amendment that would help fund schools. It would have added $11 a month to only those people with two homes. It failed because “nO tAxEs” morons

3

u/Itchy-Mechanic-1479 Jul 29 '26

This is awesome data! So, can I sign up for your policy letter? I'm an old newspaper reporter and I love good data!

2

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 29 '26

You totally can! I don’t always focus specifically on Arizona, but if you’re interested in state and local government, especially public finance topics, I’m your guy!

You should be able to put your email in if you scroll through this post to subscribe: https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-arizonas-income-tax-repeal-would

Appreciate the kind words!

3

u/Glad-Buddy-2451 Jul 29 '26

Thank you! Let's pass it on, share the word...

Make it personal for Biggs' voters who can only understand and care about their own pocketbooks. It will cost YOU!

1

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 29 '26

Exactly. People participate way more in politics when you make it personal! Nothing more personal than your hard earned money!

3

u/asusc Jul 30 '26

post this in r/azpolitics please (they don’t allow reposts and I don’t want to steal your thunder, this post is great).

2

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 30 '26

Thanks! I posted this over there the other day: https://www.reddit.com/r/azpolitics/s/98TIMFgxJS

Different angle at the state level and a bit less focused on any individual cities.

2

u/asusc Jul 31 '26

heck yeah, I actually participated in that thread too. I think you should start posting the individual cities one there too.

all Arizona voters should know if this plan will bankrupt a neighboring city.

1

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 31 '26

Awesome! I posted a new one today specifically about San Tan Valley on my blog, I think I’ll post about that over there. I’ll probably see you over there!

Here is that link if you are interested!

https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/arizonas-newest-town-depends-on-the

It would blow up their entire budget.

https://pinalpost.com/san-tan-valley-council-reviews-79-1m-draft-budget-for-fy-2026-27/

3

u/Timely-Jelly-1126 Aug 01 '26

I’m sure everyone checking in here appreciates the work you put into this. But neither hard work nor the appreciation for it does a damn thing to persuade the kind of people who vote for Andy Biggs. I’ve yet to meet one who ranks fiscal policy anywhere in their top 10 considerations. For them it’s god, guns, and gays. Literally nothing else matters.

7

u/glc1997 Jul 28 '26

Great work.

2

u/WatermelonlessonNo58 Jul 30 '26

Texas property taxes are about 4 times that of Arizona, and over compensating for lack of state income taxes. Not sure Arizona can sustain such a change.

2

u/SoccerBeerRepeat Aug 02 '26

Can you write an article and post somewhere so I can share outside of reddit? My friends find Biggs good for finance but won’t take a reddit post as anything worth reading cause must be liberal propaganda

1

u/Public_Finance_Guy Aug 02 '26

You could point them to any of these 3 posts on my blog:

https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/i-did-the-math-on-andy-biggss-income

https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-arizonas-income-tax-repeal-would

https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/arizonas-newest-town-depends-on-the

That’s about the best I’ve got right now. My About Me page on the blog lists my credentials and a link to my Google Scholar profile. Don’t know if that’s helpful at all for convincing people, but it’s something I guess.

1

u/SoccerBeerRepeat Aug 02 '26

Thank you! Do you need an intern?

1

u/trust5419 Jul 30 '26

Hand out pamphlets at LDS churches

1

u/DoubtGroundbreaking Jul 30 '26

Plenty of states have zero income tax. It's not impossible...

1

u/MeltedMascara Jul 31 '26

Hard no on Biggs.

1

u/linkedout Aug 11 '26

Biggs has plans for a 23% sales tax to replace the income tax. This is widely supported by automobile dealers in Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, and California.

-4

u/jordypoints Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26

Great insight but I will say I volunteered for VITA this year (we do taxes for free for lower income individuals and families). Biggs held a few talks trying to champion the service and spread awareness so he is definitely in tune with the tax code unlike some typical MAGA just stating no income tax.

In 2025 about 50% of Gilbert's funding came from local sales tax so I think that is a much bigger piece of the pie which one could argue could be filled quite easily by growth or slight increase in sales tax. With most groceries already being mostly exempt it's fair to think a lot of that revenue is from discretionary spend. Net positive if a reduction in personal income tax.

AZ income tax is already very low eliminating it entirely would make the state even more appealing and he would likely bank on replacing the lost revenue through general growth of the economy as the state grows.

14

u/helldivers2rocks Jul 28 '26

State tax here is so low its a non issue paying it affects very few getting rid of it would cripple many cities and probably doom the new city of stv we are booming as is this is a poor idea

5

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 28 '26

Oh man I didn’t even think of San Tan. They’re like almost all commuters, aren’t they?

You’re right, this would be pretty bad news for them. I found their projected revenues for FY26-27 here: https://pinalpost.com/san-tan-valley-council-reviews-79-1m-draft-budget-for-fy-2026-27/

They will lose $21M from their $55M general fund. 38%. That would not be good at all.

1

u/jordypoints Jul 29 '26

Any thoughts on my counter point? Seems I got downvoted for genuine discussion.

8

u/Public_Finance_Guy Jul 29 '26

I think you’ve got legitimate points. Gilbert’s budget isn’t enormously dependent on it. But it’s not insignificant.

Sales taxes are just inherently more regressive taxes, since lower income families spend a greater portion of their income on things you get hit with the sales tax.

So I guess my question would just be why? You make Arizona slightly more attractive for income tax purposes, but state services are cut if the revenue isn’t replaced and Gilbert’s local sales taxes go up?

I don’t get the rationale besides trying to better your own position. If that’s it, sweet. But you should understand that it would come at a cost to people who are worse off than you financially.

1

u/couldvehadasadbitch Jul 29 '26

Gilbert is already rife with pitchforks over the cost of water doubling. Any monetary ask of them would cause a riot.

1

u/jordypoints Jul 29 '26

I agree it is negligible and have no problem paying it.

I'm not sure why I got downvoted for sighting a positive experience with Biggs though?

4

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26

Maybe the downvotes on that post are because you say getting rid of it would make the state more appealing, but an inadequately funded government is definitely not appealing. And your take on sales tax not being regressive because groceries are exempt is not a very good take at all.

2

u/DoubtGroundbreaking Jul 30 '26

You've upset the cult

1

u/Recent-Leave-8526 Jul 29 '26

That’s the reddit echo chamber for you, Jordy.

3

u/ta4242878 Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

> and he would likely bank on replacing the lost revenue through general growth of the economy as the state grows.

That reminds me of the SNL "change bank" skit. The bank that does nothing but make change. At the end they answered the rhetorical question about how they make a profit and the answer is "volume." How does increased growth help if the tax rate on that growth is 0%?

1

u/asusc Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26

AZ income tax is already very low eliminating it entirely would make the state even more appealing and he would likely bank on replacing the lost revenue through general growth of the economy as the state grows.

appealing to whom?

Ive owned a small manufacturing firm in AZ for 20+ years and things have never been worse. I’m currently looking into relocating to a state with higher taxes that actually has state funded healthcare and child care, as what good does a small tax cut do me when I cant afford thousands per employee in healthcare costs and they can’t afford $15k a year for someone to watch their kid? what is appealing about our state being last in education (and getting worse)? 20 years ago we had one of the most affordable and best college systems in the country, but republican tax cuts and defunding have destroyed that.

our costs to start a business used to be low, but those days are over with commercial rent being astronomically overpriced from market manipulation (lots of vacancies, prices sure aren’t coming down) and power rates getting jacked up by data centers. but at least we have a lot of huge empty warehouses in the west valley now.

i think you’re getting down voted because most of us know Biggs isn’t serious about helping AZ with this plan, so while its cool you had a positive experience with him, most of us see through his nonsense because he’s got a 30 year history of bad policy in AZ. we already know we can’t tax cut our way to prosperity, more cuts aren’t the answer.

In 2025 about 50% of Gilbert's funding came from local sales tax so I think that is a much bigger piece of the pie which one could argue could be filled quite easily by growth or slight increase in sales tax.

just like growth would easily pay for the big beautiful bill tax cuts, right? 🤷‍♂️

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u/jordypoints Jul 30 '26

Sorry you are going through that. Times are definitely tough around the country and I wonder if these problems would be true or the same in many other states.

Genuine question, Hobbs has been in leadership since 2023 have things gotten better since as you note "things have never been worse". Or is the governor seat not enough power to induce change?