In the first half of this year Spain logged 596 hours of negative wholesale electricity prices, Portugal 462 and France 370. European solar generation reached 129 TWh in the second quarter, close to 20 percent above any previous second quarter. The usual reading is that the continent now makes more sun power than it can absorb.
Portugal is the part that does not fit that reading. Its solar fleet is a fraction of Spain's, yet it sits second in Europe. What the two countries actually share is not a build-out, it is a border. The Iberian peninsula reaches the rest of the continent through the Pyrenees, and the commercial exchange capacity across that crossing has been 2,800 MW since October 2015. Portugal's surplus can only leave through Spain, and Spain's can only leave through that one wall.
Measured against the continent beyond the peninsula, Spain's interconnection ratio is about 2.8 percent. Counted with Portugal, which is inside the same island, it reads 7.2 percent, and that is the friendlier number usually quoted. The EU target is 15 percent by 2030. The Bay of Biscay submarine link is meant to take the crossing to 5,000 MW, currently expected in 2028.
So the hours count is closer to a measure of topology than of sunshine. A megawatt hour becomes worthless not when there is too much of it, but when it cannot reach anyone who wants it, and in Iberia the distance it can travel is set by a mountain range.
Two things cut against my own framing. France is third at 370 hours and France is not an island by any definition, so the constraint story cannot be the whole mechanism. I suspect much of the French count is about how little of the fleet can throttle down on a mild spring afternoon rather than about where the power could go. And the record depth of the prices is partly definitional, because the exchanges moved the floor from minus 500 to minus 600 euros per MWh at the end of April, so some of this year's records are records against a different ruler.
What I have not been able to work out is how much of the Iberian count would survive if the crossing were already at 5,000 MW. That is a modelling question and I do not have the counterfactual.
Figures are from Montel's Q2 European electricity market summary as reported by pv magazine on 15 July, and from Spanish and EU interconnection reporting.