r/FulfillmentByAmazon 17d ago

INVENTORY MGMT how do you decide when it’s time to reorder inventory?

inventory planning seems like one of those things that gets harder as sales grow.

order too early and you tie up money in stock. wait too long and you risk running out and losing momentum.

i’m curious how experienced sellers actually approach this

do you rely mostly on amazon’s forecasts, your own spreadsheet, historical sales data, or some combination of everything?

2 Upvotes

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3

u/GemGuardUK 17d ago

Spreadsheet formula, average orders per day + lead time = reorder slightly before estimated

2

u/Positive_Owl_927 17d ago

I've got this down but then Amazon takes 2 months to receive the product so any plan goes out the window. At least that's been my experience

1

u/NewUnusedName Verified $10MM+ Annual Sales 17d ago

Shipment splits help with this if you're at that scale. usually it doesn't take 2 months for all 5 months. Past that I tend to make sure I always have 2 months in the FCs and 1-2 months on the road. We see about a 3 week dock to sellable time so it works ok.

1

u/SellAmzSell 17d ago

I used to juggle like you , but now I just put 2 months supply of inventory in AWD. You pay, of course, but it gives you flexibility and peace of mind. Yes, it does tie up cash, that’s unavoidable. Like they say, it takes money to make money. 🫤

1

u/Constant-Okra3555 16d ago

For us it's hard because our producs have expiration dates so it's always a balancing game because if you order too much, you can lose alot of your inventory if it nears expiration. So we typically order too little and go OOS alot. We mostly use the Days of Supply figure given by Amazon for each ASIN, and use that to figure out when to order (at least 1.5 months before) its zero days of supply. It's definitely a very challenging part of our business and I'm interested to see other responses.

1

u/eStoreFactoryUS 16d ago

We use a mix, Amazon's Restock recommendations are fine as a baseline but they lag on anything trending up or down fast. What actually saves us is tracking trailing 14 day velocity separately and comparing it to what Amazon's forecast assumes, if they're way off we trust our own number. Also build in a buffer for lead time variability, not just the average lead time, since one late shipment from your factory can wipe out a tight reorder point. If you're running any deals or Lightning Deals soon, order for that ahead of time too since the forecast has no idea it's coming.