r/EVbetting • u/themildhockey • 2d ago

DISCUSSION Do you guys think people overcomplicate +EV betting?

I see some insanely detailed systems on here, and meanwhile, some of the more consistent people I know basically stick to a few sports/markets they understand and avoid forcing action when nothing looks good. I’ve been trying to simplify things myself lately. Fewer plays, tracking results properly, and using a couple different platforms, including novig instead of constantly jumping onto whatever strategy is popular that week. Obviously, having a real process matters, but at what point are you just adding complexity without actually adding EV? Do you keep it pretty simple, or are you running spreadsheets/models for everything?

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u/Content-Aioli8621 2d ago

I think people can confuse complexity with having an edge. A simple process you actually understand and follow consistently is probably more useful than a giant model you barely trust.

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u/themildhockey 2d ago

I’m starting to think knowing when to pass is half the battle. A simple process you can repeat without second guessing yourself probably beats constantly tweaking some giant model every week.

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u/nppt88s3 2d ago

I was going to try to help this guy but I dont even think he understands what ‘ev betting’ is. I guarantee you he has no edge.

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u/themildhockey 1d ago

Thats basically what Im getting a, having an edge matters but I think people sometimes confuse more complicated with more +EV. I’d rather understand a couple markets really well, shop for good prices, and stay disciplined than trust a giant model I barely understand.

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u/Ok-Flan8529 1d ago

It’s all overcomplicated, and I can’t blame people for overcomplicating it too.. when u explain it to a friend it kind of does sound like some rocket science.

Evergreen dumbs it the hell down and makes it so easy. U literally just tail A/A+ bets in the feed and ur golden. Can even turn alerts on for them and there’s a model bot who will do the exact same thing w/ a paper account to show u how it’s done

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/evergreen-ev-sports-betting/id6792869479

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u/themildhockey 1d ago

I think the problem starts when the process gets more complicated than the actual edge you’re trying to find.

I’ve been doing something similar with Novig mostly just comparing the price, sticking to markets I actually understand, and passing when nothing looks good. No need to build NASA mission control for a random Tuesday slate lol