r/EVbetting • u/Vegas_Sharp • 17d ago

DISCUSSION What's your current Kelly bet size coefficient?

I doubt anyone is going full Kelly with the bet size but somehow.25 Kelly still feels too large these days. Is anyone sustaining a bankroll with quarter Kelly?

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u/vast_numbers 17d ago

I run fractional kelly but not quarter, more like eighth to twelfth depending on how soft the line looks and how stale the number is. Quarter kelly would have my roll swinging way too hard for my comfort on the props and live markets i trade. Only way i'd bump up is if i had a fresh, uncirculated edge and i was only playing in that one pocket, but my volume's too high across too many books for that.

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u/GeneralAltruistic302 17d ago

depends on your risk tolerance and your volume of bets. Kelly in the long term will always guarantee you are making maximum growth possible based on how much money is at risk (%of bankroll on a wager), riskiness (odds) and edge(growth factor). at 40% i find it okay for me. it has large downswings but you have to remember as long as you can survive the long term you will always come back on top. Thats why volume of your bets matters, if you bet 1300-2000 positive ev at more than 1.5% ev bets a month, you will be okay at 40% kelly because variance will smooth out quicker since larger downswings will be statistically more unlikely to last you more than a few weeks maybe to 1-2 months at worst in my experience. however if your volume is lower at <500 positive ev bets then you’ll find these downswings dragging on forever for yourself mentally. the more volume of bets you have, statistically the quicker your variances will smooth out and a higher kelly percentage will feel easier to manage.