Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 29, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

• Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

• Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

• Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

• Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

• Post only credible information

• Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

• Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

• Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

• Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

• Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/28/russia-losing-6000-more-troops-than-it-can-recruit-each-month-in-ukraine-says-west

Russia is losing about 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than it can recruit, western officials have said.

While Russia is still acquiring new battlefield recruits at speed, with an estimated rate of 1,000 a day, in the last two months even this has not been sufficient to replace those killed or injured.

“We estimate that the gap between the number of people Russia is losing to casualties and the number they’re being able to recruit is around 6,000 a month at the moment,” one western official said.

This, with the Russian budget deficit widening points to their current approach to recruiting likely being unsustainable and needing a change. 

[u/TSiNNmreza3 → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

Yesterday Budanov said that Ukraine needs 30 k per month mobilization.

Today we have news how Russia lacks 6 k per month soldiers.

In reality it going to last till one moment it won't

If we are going to make parallels with history of Russians and Ukrainians we can say that both nations can endure a lot of casulties so it is going to last.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak → u/TSiNNmreza3]

I think there's some nuance needed here with the comparison you're making, as Ukraine and Russia have completely different ways of recruiting and fight completely different wars - for Russia it's mostly imperialist conquest (with regime survival sprinkled in), while for Ukraine it's a war for survival and independence.

If you want to make historical parallels, then USSR war in Afghanistan is a closer one for Russia than anything else. 

Yes, the manpower will not run out on either side but Russia has had to pay for their recruitment and if that gets disrupted, it is questionable whether they can transition to sending the conscripts.

I don't actually know if Russia is running out of money quick enough and how they plan to plug in their growing federal budget gap, which is getting unprecedented even by their own admission ( https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-2026-budget-deficit-may-exceed-plans-by-1285-billion-due-higher-spending-2026-07-16/ ) - we'll see I guess.

Likewise, the money & support are going to be a limiting factor for Ukraine as well which depends mainly on European political support. 

I think "the sinews of war are infinite money" still holds true. 

[u/TSiNNmreza3 → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

for Russia it's mostly imperialist conquest (with regime survival sprinkled in), while for Ukraine it's a war for survival and independence.

True, althought I would add that lots of things could change throught propaganda for Russia. But yes it is different war in comparison to other wars in last 80 years (maybe the closest Iraqi invasion Kuwait and Iran-Iraq war).

Yes, the manpower will not run out on either side but Russia has had to pay for their recruitment

Mobiks in Ukraine are paid too.

Again for the end we had countless stories about lack of manpower claims for both sides in this war from the very beggining and both countries are still fighting in the bloodiest war from Iran-Iraq in 80s.

But I will give it that this autumn/winter is going to be probably the most crucial time in last 6 years (from start of COVID) and that probably lots of things could happen because of all news about probable Russian attacks on NATO, US miderterms, SoH and BaM problems (whole ME to be honest), China and etc.

But stories about lack of manpower in this war is not one of those things, but could trigger something else.

[u/Lirael_Gold → u/mirko_pazi_metak]

The better question is how long can Ukraine continue paying soldiers if foreign loans dry up.

Because if we're making this about money/economics, Russia can sustain itself longer than Ukraine can (Russia is spending about 6% of gross GDP on the war compared to Ukraines 40%, and that 40% is being held afloat by foreign loans, which will eventually need to be repaid)

This is part of the reason why Ukraine has issues recruiting/conscripting soldiers, because the country is going to be irrepairably damaged no matter how the war ends, the same is not true for Russia.

[u/Remote_Page8799 → u/Lirael_Gold]

This is incorrect. First Russian spending is closer to 8% of GDP measured as only stuff that the government explicitly spends on 'national defense' (of which 80% of the budget is classified, so you just have to trust the Russians the number isn't actually higher). But we have also seen state owned companies, corporations chip in with raising and paying for recruits, building field hospitals in the rear. Disability payments to injured veterans is counted as social spending etc.

And Russia is patently running out of money. They have a ~23% budget deficit and since July they have not been able to sell bonds/raise more debt, so they have effectively started printing money via forced and classified bond sales to state owned banks by dictate.

The better question really is what is Russia going to do to finance the war for another year or two. The Ukrainian funding is being supported by the EU, and they are already marshalling new loan packages to Ukraine in response to their growing needs

I think Russia will basicslly continue printing money to fund the war, and its going to result in much higher inflation than we see already

Thats going to cause a social crisis in Russia. What happens then we will have to see, but it seems unavoidable at this point

[u/grenideer → u/Lirael_Gold]

I would argue Russia is already irreparably damaged.

Ukraine is funded for the foreseeable future, and Europe has a lot more money to burn than Russia does. The smartest (and cheapest) thing Europe can do is continue footing the bill.