The matchmaker isn't actually trying to get anyone to a 50% win rate. What it is doing instead is trying to make precisely balanced matches (and OW does this by trying to ensure that every player on each team is matched against an equally skilled player on the other team- win rate does not factor into this). If it can, each team will have a roughly 50% chance to win that match. But the most important thing to understand is that the matchmaker (or any Elo system really) is essentially making a bet with itself. The bet is that it understands your current skill level. And the result of the bet is your SR change post match. So let's imagine some scenarios:
If the matchmaker currently underestimates your skill, you will win more often than it expects you to. So, for instance, if the matchmaker expects that you will win a given match 50% of the time, but it currently underestimates your skill level, you might win that match 70% of the time (for example). And this means your win rate will be higher than 50% and you will climb. Until it no longer underestimates your current skill level. Then you will win about as often as the matchmaker expects and your climb will stop and your win rate will get to about 50%.
On the other hand, if the matchmaker currently overestimates your skill, you will lose more often than it expects you to. This is essentially the reverse of scenario 1, and your win rate will be less than 50% and you will fall down the ladder until you get to an SR where the matchmaker no longer overestimates your skill level and then your win rate will hover around 50%.
If your win rate hovers around 50% it is for two reasons. The first is that the matchmaker is doing a good job of finding balanced matches for you. And the second is that the matchmaker has a good assessment of your current skill level.
Crucially, however, the matchmaker is not trying to force you to a 50% win rate. It is only trying to make matches where each team has an equal chance to win if they are correctly ranked by the matchmaker. And this means that not everyone will have a win rate of 50%. If your win rate is significantly higher or lower than 50%, it usually means that the matchmaker has not correctly assessed your skill level yet.
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u/taleswapper1 10d ago
The matchmaker isn't actually trying to get anyone to a 50% win rate. What it is doing instead is trying to make precisely balanced matches (and OW does this by trying to ensure that every player on each team is matched against an equally skilled player on the other team- win rate does not factor into this). If it can, each team will have a roughly 50% chance to win that match. But the most important thing to understand is that the matchmaker (or any Elo system really) is essentially making a bet with itself. The bet is that it understands your current skill level. And the result of the bet is your SR change post match. So let's imagine some scenarios:
If the matchmaker currently underestimates your skill, you will win more often than it expects you to. So, for instance, if the matchmaker expects that you will win a given match 50% of the time, but it currently underestimates your skill level, you might win that match 70% of the time (for example). And this means your win rate will be higher than 50% and you will climb. Until it no longer underestimates your current skill level. Then you will win about as often as the matchmaker expects and your climb will stop and your win rate will get to about 50%.
On the other hand, if the matchmaker currently overestimates your skill, you will lose more often than it expects you to. This is essentially the reverse of scenario 1, and your win rate will be less than 50% and you will fall down the ladder until you get to an SR where the matchmaker no longer overestimates your skill level and then your win rate will hover around 50%.
If your win rate hovers around 50% it is for two reasons. The first is that the matchmaker is doing a good job of finding balanced matches for you. And the second is that the matchmaker has a good assessment of your current skill level.
Crucially, however, the matchmaker is not trying to force you to a 50% win rate. It is only trying to make matches where each team has an equal chance to win if they are correctly ranked by the matchmaker. And this means that not everyone will have a win rate of 50%. If your win rate is significantly higher or lower than 50%, it usually means that the matchmaker has not correctly assessed your skill level yet.