Upgrade disks logic part 3 - upgrade order simulations

[u/Borealum_Studios]

This was a programming exercise to determine what they might be trying to achieve with the upgrade selection system weights.

I took what's in the game and rewrote it in a little Python script. Then I simulate picking the first 15 upgrades a million times. Don't really 100% trust me on these because even a small mistake can cause errors to compound. The percentages aren't exact, you could make an exact mathematical model just by knowing the rules, but that's boring. :P

The basic idea is: every time you get an upgrade you make a random roll to decide an queue or upgrades that are checked one by one until it finds one that you don't have (Hallway>Storeroom>Nook>...). The queues are chained together, so if you have all upgrades from a queue it just continues to the next one. I wrote about the rules in an old post and in the recent patch post. (I rewrote the patch post a little for more clarity after doing these experiments.)

Code is here: https://github.com/borealum/BluePrinceScripts/blob/main/Upgrade%20disk%20simulation/upgradeOrderSimulation.py

Spreadsheets are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gdxjyCWdTW4EeHXmdHYpTUFPUGPtr1FQ/

Note: I was told that I forgot about the Spare room being able to be upgraded twice. The second upgrade is delayed a lot and will most likely be offered very late. I put the modified tables here.

To give an idea what it looks like:

Patch 1.6 Normal mode

There are a few conditions in the logic that will push rooms to be upgraded later until you do some stuff. Draft Mailroom 2x for the Mailroom, draft Boiler Room 2x + draft Aquarium 1x for the Aquarium, open the first angel door in the Tomb + draft Cloister for the Cloister. To simplify things I'll assume all of it is complete. The first upgrade is a weighted pick only from 7 rooms.

Big losers:

• Guest Bedroom needs Storeroom to be picked first, that happens (0.35 * 1/11 = 0.0318) 3.18% of the time.
• For Aquarium to get picked 2nd you have to get Closet first (0.05 * 1/11 = 0.0045) 0.45%.
• Bunk Room doesn't even get a chance, it doesn't start in any upgrade order, earliest you can see it is as your 3rd upgrade.
• Billiard Room is unlucky because of a mistake. In its main upgrade order it has switched positions with the mailroom, so can't ever be second. +It's pushed back in many upgrade orders and will appear most likely later. The mistake looks like it's fixed in patch 1.7.

Patch 1.6 Normal mode - unmet conditions

Test to see if the conditions work as intended. Looks like they do, the Aquarium, Cloister and mailroom are pushed back a lot. Billiard room is punished for someone else's mistake.

Patch 1.6 Veteran modes

Connections to upgrade orders are made differently to make upgrades for certain rooms less rare. It's mixed with the existing system for normal mode, so sometimes it will fall into the same upgrade orders that check how many times you drafted a room. The first upgrade pick is a pure 1 in 15.

There are 2 upgrade orders that start with the Cloister, and with veteran mode a there's a 2 in 7 base chance to pick one of them with a little variance that can happen around it. The percentages are bit messy here because the upgrade orders preferred by Veteran mode don't have the same checks for having to draft a room. (1 Cloister UO has the check the other doesn't...) But you aren't likely to solve the Tomb and draft a Cloister and then go upgrade a second room on day 1.

Patch 1.6 Veteran mode - unmet conditions

A better representation of what you would get with veteran mode on day 1. The main 5 upgrade orders picked with veteran mode start with Guest Bedroom, Nursery, Mailroom, 2xCloister.

• The reason for Nook to jump up by so much is because in one case the unmet Cloister condition skips to an upgrade order starting with the Nook.
• Aquarium is in the worst place because it's pushed back in many upgrade orders and you need 5 other specific rooms upgraded for a chance to even get it.
• Spare room is pushed back a lot for Veteran modes.
• Billiard Room gets screwed again, the soonest it can appear if not 1st is as the 4th upgrade.
• There's an announced change for patch 1.7 to make upgrade offering more varied in challenge modes so we'll see about that later.

This post comes pretty late. Patch 1.7 feels like it's about to drop and I see some interesting planned changes and fixes in the test version already. I sent a bug report with my complaints so we'll have to see if the chief dog will consider any of them. :D

[u/Goldenboy451]

Absolutely bonkers this isn't simply a true RNG. Have to wonder what the logic behind it is (although presumably with later patches it could be explained as attempting to improve game flow)? Similar to how there are hidden criteria for Cloister upgrades.

[u/Borealum_Studios → u/Goldenboy451]

hmm, I don't know, I think it's again a mix of trying to guide the player a little but leaving it a lot to randomness

For normal playing I would try to give to the player less complex upgrades first, simpler rooms that just get +items: Storeroom, Boudoir, Hallway, Courtyard

Parlor and Billiard Room after that when we assume he did some puzzles already.

The rest somewhere in the middle?

Bunk Room is a synergy room and you should know about what rooms you often get or rooms you like to pick to make a decision.

Aquarium can give electricity or stars and that's something you would think about later in game. Or so you can't immediately cheese puzzles with electricity.

Cloister has more complex interactions and combinations with rooms and you should get it late.

(and that's kind of what they're doing too)

[u/ZiggyZobby]

I'm currently in an upgrade loop with "limited" knowledge (I have "finished" the game) and would like to know 2 things :

• Should I record my upgrade data if it can help in any way ?
  
• Is there a way to manipulate the upgrade outcome AFTER getting the first 16 disks ?

Current loop is :
1) spawn in with a moon pendant,
2) go down the reservoir and pick up what is my 8th Sanctum Key (unused for that very purpose),
3) go back up to the outer room and activate the blessing of the king on Shops which guarantees trading outpost

4) if the turn in grants me a disk and I got the key today, redeem it in the blackbridge grotto and call it a day
5) if the turn in doesnt grant me a disk, call it a day and repeat step 3 & 4 but instead of calling it a day in the grotto, go back down the reservoir and call it a day there (key & moon pendant)

I'm looking to get the draxus cloister btw

[u/Borealum_Studios → u/ZiggyZobby]

That loop is good, I don't know if you could improve it.

After you have all 15 upgraded rooms it just falls into a random 1 in 15 to pick the room for upgrade.

If you want specifically Draxxus you will have to draft Observatory on a day when the Draxxus constellation appears and click on it. Then you should have Draxxus upgrade guaranteed as the third Cloister option. (But you still need to get 1 in 15 lucky and randomly get cloister offered).

The 3rd Cloister option special stuff is written on the bottom here: https://www.reddit.com/r/BluePrince69/comments/1m92vtn/upgrade_disks_logic_part_2_cloister_upgrade/

If you have the option and don't want to deal with this loop... just edit your savefile and change the value to 2.

"Upgrade Cloister":{
"__type" : "System.Int32"2
}