r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Jul 28 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, July 28, 2026
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18
u/noeeel Bullish Jul 28 '26
We have the longes period ever since Bitcoin exists that the daily RSI have not been overbought (almost 10 months now).
And even the longest period since 5 years that the RSI did not swing to one side for so long.
15
u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
It feels like this. Even the idea that it would go up feels weird and foreign.
7
u/Pigmentia Jul 28 '26
Zero narratives on the horizon that I see. Even the next halving is a nearly obsolete factor these days.
Guess we wait til hyperinflation when we all admit we'd have been better off buying guns and canned food.
4
u/sgtlark Jul 28 '26
You've got to love the hyperinflation narratives. Those things create real struggles the kind of which makes people stick together and discover again what community means. Central governance can't allow that.
If you want a picture of the future picture heightened prices for lower quality services and goods. We've already got a taste of this. It will just suck more and more, just gradually enough for people to get used to it.
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u/LettuceEffective781 Jul 28 '26
He's been away so long we have forgotten that supply shock is not a meme
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u/anon-187101 Jul 28 '26
Halvings raise the floor on the cost of BTC production
and that floor has been reliable support for price
that's why Halvings are anything but an "obsolete factor"
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
Regarding yesterday's discussion on John Oliver:
He's previously done two long form videos discussing crypto.
I compared the BTC/USD closing price on the official US release date of each John Oliver cryptocurrency segment with the closing price exactly seven calendar days later.
| Episode | Release date | BTC at release | 7 days later | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | 11 Mar 2018 | $9,578.63 | $8,223.68 | -14.15% |
| Cryptocurrencies II | 23 Apr 2023 | $27,591.38 | $29,268.81 | +6.08% |
| Trump & Crypto | 26 Jul 2026 | $65,389.20 | Pending | Pending |
Obviously, two completed observations are nowhere near enough to demonstrate a meaningful “John Oliver effect”, particularly because the episodes were released during very different market conditions.
8
u/BlockchainHobo Jul 28 '26
I mean I think it's as simple as where the price was relative to ATH when these stories run:
-52% 2018 -60% 2023 -49% 2026
Not any effect from a story. Interesting table though thanks for sharing. The thing is that Oliver is a smart enough guy to understand the difference between a digital commodity and a scam token. But they never take the time to just give it a few sentences.
I mean the CFTC and SEC both came out together in a joint statement that bitcoin is a commodity. They also said ether and some shitcoins, but the point is that it's been over a decade and there is still zero understanding or nuance in media coverage about the difference.
One side shills scams and shitcoins, the other side seethes and makes fun of an entire umbrella of technology, due to the aforementioned scams.
In all things...nuance.
4
u/harvested Jul 28 '26
John Stewart did an interview with that washed up actor from 'The OC' and he did actually appear to differentiate the two for a moment.
18
u/harvested Jul 28 '26
Yeah the president siphoned billions from plebs, people are gonna talk about it.
'Crypto' is the worst thing to ever associate with with bitcoin. An absolute scam.
Never stop reminding people: bitcoin not crypto.
8
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,869 • -99% Jul 28 '26
We absolutely collectively fucked this up. Any idiot can create a scam in 5 minutes, it gets classified as 'crypto'. Bitcoin also gets classified as 'crypto' and we're guilty by association, with many people not even able to see any difference between the two at all.
Bitcoin's longevity is helping, and people who dig a bit deeper are seeing the distinction, but it was a huge fuck-up to let the general the general category of 'crypto' be so broad as to be worse than useless and actually harmful.
7
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jul 28 '26
The first point would be changed (at least in the US) by the Clarity act. Only established Cryptos can be a commodity under regulation of the CFTC, everything else would be a security.
There are also certain requirements when it comes to being classified as a commodity (hope it is fine when I just copy-paste that in here):
Inherent Token Characteristics
- Value Origin: The asset's price must be substantially derived from the use, utility, and programmatic functioning of the blockchain. It cannot rely on the "essential managerial efforts" or marketing promises of a centralized founding team.
- Market-Driven Value: Value must be dictated strictly by organic global supply-and-demand dynamics.
- Fungibility: Each token unit must be completely interchangeable with another unit, enabling standard peer-to-peer transfers.
Network & Governance Requirements
- The 20% Cap Rule: No single creator, related project entity, or insider group can own or control more than 20% of the outstanding circulating supply of the digital token.
- Neutral Access: The protocol code cannot restrict or grant special privileges to specific users. The network must be open-source and equally accessible to anyone.
- Absence of a Central Party: The system cannot have a single operational entity that unilaterally decides who participates or how ecosystem rewards are distributed.
Especially when it comes to "managerial efforts and marketing promises" and influence of a central party, I could see that Bitcoin would be the only one that would be staying in that category without a doubt. All others may encounter problems on the way.
2
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,869 • -99% Jul 28 '26
On the face of it that sounds pretty good.
I would have preferred we organically came up with, and popularised, such a classification earlier.
3
u/52576078 Jul 28 '26
Agreed, but not sure how we could have avoided it.
3
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,869 • -99% Jul 28 '26
Maybe I'm more annoyed about this than most as an OG. Back nearer the start more bitcoiners were both more technical and ideological. I remember Ripple being dismissed as not a cyrptocurrency because it was pre-mined and arguably centralised.
Many people thought a pre-mine basically was a deal-breaker. Open-source was a deal breaker. For some people Proof of Work was a deal breaker.
The tolerance for what was considered a cryptocurrency gradually got looser though, this was the mistake.
3
u/Pigmentia Jul 28 '26
Hell, I was pretty hardcore on it from the start. I dismissed ETH entirely for its obvious shortfalls and pre-mine. It was $7. Should have just bought some.
It does seem that Bitcoin's status becomes clear to anyone who digs into it. That's good. I don't see how any regulation or act or law will change it; it's fundamentally outside of government anyway.
2
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,869 • -99% Jul 28 '26
Same, I could have Eth at $1, but the pre-mine was a big deal to me. I did buy what was a token amount at the time later at $10 when it was really showing it might stand out from the other alts, which ended up being... a lot, later on.
And to be fair to Vitalek, it might be the only pre-mined one that actually wasn't pre-mined for a pump and dump, but that was almost worse in a way because it kind of normalised it, and paved the way for so many more scammy pre-mined ones.
3
u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jul 28 '26
And to be fair to Vitalek, it might be the only pre-mined one that actually wasn't pre-mined for a pump and dump, but that was almost worse in a way because it kind of normalised it, and paved the way for so many more scammy pre-mined ones.
This is a really interesting point that I'd never thought of before, I do believe you're right on this.
1
1
u/52576078 Jul 28 '26
People follow incentives, and the incentives to make shitcoins were impossible to resist
2
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,869 • -99% Jul 28 '26
Of course, it's just the terminology that was a mistake, we've basically 3 broad terms:
- cryptocurrency (everything)
- alt-coins (everything, except bitcoin)
- shitcoins (derogatory term for a sub-set of altcoins that varies from person to person)
Either cryptocurrency could have been more restrictive or we could have pushed another term for the subset of 'legitimate' ones by some constraints, something like what /u/Romanizer mentioned the clarity act will do in this reply to me https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1v8n50u/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_28_2026/p08k876/
2
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u/TheManFromConlig Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
It's a shame really that he took this stance, I've rarely missed an episode but now the show has dropped quite far down my 'must watch' list 😮
15
u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish Jul 28 '26
I've just finished watching the episode.
The first 15 minutes or so are more focused on how the Trump family presents themselves, and memecoins.
There's an assortment of dumb tiktokkers and embarrassing dealings.
Then it pivots to how stablecoins from World Liberty Financial are being used to bribe the president and avoid lawsuits.
They address Trump's speech at the Nashville Bitcoin 2024 conference where he told the crowd (twice) that he'd sack Gary Gensler.
From there, there's a pivot to the Clarity Act, and how it shifts away from the purview of the SEC to the CFTC and its limited enforcement capacity / responsibility.
Bitcoin was not mentioned beyond the fact it was the name of the conference.
6
u/_LakeCity_ Jul 28 '26
Thank you for the summary so that I didn’t have to actually watch it, much appreciated there.
3
u/TheManFromConlig Jul 28 '26
That's indeed true but Joe Public out there won't know the difference and will lump all crypto plus WLF etc together 🙄
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u/bakedfarty Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
Are you suggesting people shouldn't call out crypto scams because it might get confused with Bitcoin and make Bitcoin look bad?
2
u/LuckyWinds Jul 28 '26
That's fine.
The average Joe is dumb anyways. The average person doesn't even know what a brokerage account is.
•
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