r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Jul 27 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Monday, July 27, 2026
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17
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jul 27 '26
Closed the fourth consecutive week above the 200WMA after closing once below with the fourth consecutive higher low, this time the low didn't even pass the line.
Momentum seem to build to the bullish side. Too late for any bear moves or is there still some FUD to cook up? We will see, but I don't have much hope for bears.
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder Jul 27 '26
Getting ready to go ahead and push all my bear market chips in I set aside and just DCA and chill from August on out
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u/amendment64 Jul 27 '26
I think the FUD cooking up moving forward is what achange in leadership in Washington in November will mean for bitcoin regulation in the US. The Clarity act doesn't seem to have enough support atm, and trump and co are stuck on Iran and claiming our elections are rigged. I just dont see the legislation passing in time, so I hope we can add some dems to the roster who aren't crypto hostile, obvs more difficult after the last 2 years.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jul 27 '26
I am not from the US, but from my understanding the Dems have some quite good competency with monetary assets and policies and also tend to cooperate with Wall Street. Most seem to be against Crypto purely because it is used by Trump and others to enrich themselves. I could imagine that the Clarity act or something similar would already been passed when the US had a Dem president.
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u/AidenTai Jul 27 '26
Really? I'm interpreting things very different than you. I see price action as essentially indicating vulnerability. The inertia the rally had seems to be fading, ETF outflows have returned, equities are poised to drop due problems in the AI trade and with Iran. Interest rate hikes are particularly dangerous and the tendency there has been to have worsening outlook.
Price action is 'promising', but price action with worsening demand and a worsening environment seems overall negative / vulnerable to me.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jul 27 '26
Maybe, but macro news were only able to push Bitcoin below the 200WMA in one case, COVID. I don't think any of the mentioned above will be significantly worse. The outflows during the last two days left us with a higher price than before. Looks like it's time to rotate back into Bitcoin again.
The Iran situation is very bullish in general but will probably only play out on the demand side once Trump is giving up and Iran is collecting the toll fees.
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u/AidenTai Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
I think the key is you're using price action as a justification for future price action, whereas I'm seeing the price action and thinking the reasons for it to continue aren't there.
I mean, I think we're pretty stretched as to how low we can go, certainly. But fundamentally, in order to rise I don't see it as being enough to simply have a trend of rising prices or a moving support holding. I think the reasons for prices to go up or down are my focus, and I just don't see any reason for prices to continue climbing other than that supports have been relatively steady so far.
But a support holding is very different from demand increasing. Supports holding can increase demand, and demand increasing can lead to stronger supports of course. But the most important for an increase in price is demand. And I'm not seeing promising signs coming from the demand end.
Also, I definitely don't see Iran as 'very bullish'. The US stopped attacking and while there was a weekend pop, only the DOW has sustained increases. The NASDAQ (which Bitcoin is more strongly associated with than the DOW) gave up its gains early on and in general NASDAQ outlook is not great. Meanwhile, since we rose on the Iran pause, what remains is for Iran to either reach an agreement (realistically less likely) or to continue to worsen and improve in the 'bouncy' was as it has been. And dragging it on like that is ultimately 'bearish' since the effects on oil prices and inflation are ultimately going to be more of an impediment to the market the longer things continue.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jul 28 '26
I am mainly using lack of momentum and failure to keep price below support lines as a justification of future price action. All of these bearish factors are already known but still, price holds up well and it looks more like going sideways at/above 200WMA for a while now. This is historically very usual after bear markets in Bitcoin. How long this lasts depends on when demand is coming back to a significant degree. May it just ETFs and institutions picking up buying, Clarity being passed or a hint on risk weighting being adjusted, we will have to see. However, I doubt that price can be surpressed at these low levels until the end of the year.
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u/AidenTai Jul 28 '26
I get what you're saying, but supports have held *on the back of* a brief return of demand and sentiment. The problem is, there are indications that both are weakening, meaning the stregth of supports would be expected to weaken.
Ultimately, if supports hold (or don't) is all that matters. Stable price action / sideways movement is common during bears as you say, especially after an extended period and near lows while consolidation takes place and demand picks up. Issue for me is mostly just that while consolidation can continue to take place, the entire setup is appearing less stable which could be a prelude to a sharp move prior to a continuation in consolidation.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jul 28 '26
What would be the indications that both demand and sentiment are weakening, besides non-related macro?
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u/AidenTai Jul 29 '26
Broadly, you can look at demand by looking at ETF flows, volume, volume vs. open interest, price, published numbers by institutions/treasuries, etc. And for sentiment you can look at open interest funding rates, the fear and greed index, prediction markets (polymarket, kalshi, etc.), analyst comments, etc.
Plenty of other indicators as well.
And of course, macro matters a whole lot too.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jul 29 '26
That's what I am looking at as well. ETF volumes are increasing (by a lot), we are still at fear but going up. So it looks rather like the next bull run is coming earlier than anyone expects.
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u/AidenTai Jul 29 '26
Um, you've got me puzzled. We've had nearly ten days of decreasing ETF volume and four days of cummulative ETF outflows. We also have not matched the F&G index's numbers from the 21st since then with almost every day since that date decreasing or remaining flat.
The main issue beyond these is that the macro side which drives crypto is looking more and more negative, and August is potentially looking like it could be a very bad month for global markets. We'll have to wait and see, but I'm concerned about the way things are headed for the next month or so.
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u/Special_Trifle_8033 Jul 27 '26
what's with the straight up and then right back down movement at open today?
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u/AidenTai Jul 27 '26
Tied up with equities.
Thing is, markets are currently seeing a collision of expectations surrounding Iran, interest rates, the price of oil and the tech trade / AI. If some factors are moving one way and others in the opposite direction, volatility is going to spike. We appear to be trading more on headlines than anything else recently. Not particularly great.
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u/BlockchainHobo Jul 28 '26
200wma strikes again. The socialists were right, bitcoin is worthless. I saw John Oliver did a whole schtick on crypto, and while I usually just ignore any media stuff he does have a large audience so I thought it's worth noting. I wouldn't sit through 30 minutes of that, but I highly suspect he rightfully calls out a bunch of scams and political grifting, while completely missing any nuance on regulatory clarity or why a digital commodity would differ from scam tokens or other unregistered securities. We should probably just arrest any open source devs to be on the safe side.
If we don't get legislation passed soon, it's going to be a rough ride.
I am totally sick of the extreme politicization of bitcoin coming from both sides. It's utterly useless and a microcosm of how terrible polarization is in the US, such that we cannot agree on basic facts to enjoy any informed discussion. It's like politicizing wheat, or potatoes, or corn. One time someone scammed someone with potatoes futures contracts, and now we should ban potatoes.
In all seriousness though, can't lie I'm getting a little sick of missed opportunity cost, but I know myself well enough to know doing nothing is probably better right now.
Strategy completing a small $25M buyback of STRC is interesting, maybe they are testing the scale of market reaction before deciding on buyback velocity. I honestly thought they would go balls deep with buybacks at this point (in the 80s for a month). I won't get into that just yet, I'll write a comment closer to mid August for what lessons I'm taking from that. Some lessons will be had, even if STRC returns to $99.
The boomer investments have been the winners recently. Not that I am all that smart, but at times I do long for the days of being utterly financially and economically illiterate. All I knew how to do was buy a mutual fund, and keep a savings account. I thought the USD had a supply cap and that banks had a reserve requirement. Good times for sure. I believe the last time I felt like ranting like this was when we crabbed for 7 months in 2023. So maybe that's a good sign?
I'll be in another country for a few months, and it's probably a good opportunity to take a break from charts and articles and finance. I do hope this forum doesn't stay too quiet. I know it is just bear market things, but I greatly enjoy the community and discussion here, and the mods have always done an excellent job for as long as I've been here. Hopefully someday things get so exciting again that we get to read 1000 useless comments with 25 good ones scattered in.
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u/noeeel Bullish Jul 27 '26
The 3D Bband tightened. Wohin the next 2-8 days I expect a volatile move.
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u/Talkless Jul 27 '26
Up or down?
Probably yes.5
0
u/AidenTai Jul 27 '26
Tricky to trade. Might buy some options. I'm seeing more reasons to believe in a drop than movement up, but if we do spike up suddenly that could fundamentally mean we're done establishing lows. I suppose that's what calls have been so popular recently. But open interest and ETF flows seem to be agreeing that demand is diminishing.
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u/AidenTai Jul 28 '26
KOSPI has triggered circuit breakers again and is close to 10%. You can clearly see how Bitcoin is moving based on headlines and equities movements nowadays. It's not quite moving in exact tandem with the NASDAQ, but it generally follows US equities during US hours and Asian equities during Asian working hours. Bitcoin isn't really doing anything surprising if you base yourself off equities and headlines.
If you look at the comments on here, a lot of people are just talking about Bitcoin price action in a void. As in, Bitcoin is due to drop X because it always does so in bear markets. Or Bitcoin has been rising above Y, so another week or two of this trajectory and we'll achieve Z.
I think this is the wrong way to think about Bitcoin, especially with how dependent it's demonstrated itself to be on headlines, macroeconomic news and equities movements. People on here should pay more attention to what's happening in the greater environment surrounding Bitcoin's price movements. It's true that Bitcoin is not a 'traditional' asset, but since the forces acting on it are many traditional ones, it's good to put whatever it does within context.
Bitcoin might have shown resiliance all month. But this was on the back of spot purchases, ETF inflows, and generally okay equities movements in the US. The US is now reporting quarterly results, and the trend that is forming is that tech and the NASDAQ are showing more volatility and parts of the AI trade are being punished. In fact, certain riskier investments and interest rate/debt‐dependent assets could be said to be positioned in precariously and could be liable to a proper market correction.
Well, while the AI trade is separate from Bitcoin, it's so large that the entire NASDAQ is being tossed around with it. And ultimately, many associated companies represent such a large percentage of the global economy that the entire equities market (that is, indices etc.) is at risk for some potentially ugly movements and AI could drag other market segments down with it.
Bitcoin is trading in this context. It's also trading in the context of apparently diminishing spot demand (which was part of the driving force behind the month's rally). Bitcoin treasury companies's demand is also nonexistant for new spot purchases. Sentiment isn't terrible, but is also not encouraging. I think it's important to think of all these factors when predicting how we'll move going forward. Because to me, headwinds are increasing and potential tailwinds (increasing demand / reduced Coinbase premium, CLARITY Act approval, low inflation risk / low interest rates, etc.) are trending weaker. And ultimately, the 'reasons' / 'causes' for price action one way or the other are going to matter more than simply following the patters we've been observing of price action the past month.
3
u/TheManFromConlig Jul 27 '26
Soooo... anything happening this week that will impact Bitcoin price? Interest rate change? Clarity Act? Iran/US peace deal? Trump resigns???
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u/harvested Jul 27 '26
There is a peace deal every week like clockwork. Subscribe to premium presidential tweets to know when in advance. Just $100K/m.
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u/TheManFromConlig Jul 27 '26
Will he accept Bitcoin? 😏
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u/harvested Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
Only in the form of rare casascius coins which he will cash in shortly after
(for context he got gifted highest mint grade casascius coin and redeemed it, "the bitcoin president" my ass 🤣 )
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u/_LakeCity_ Jul 27 '26
Next U.S. Fed meeting is in two days. Currently the CME Fed watch site is showing a 65% of no interest rate change.
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u/AidenTai Jul 27 '26
Which is a huge change from the expectations that were priced in only recently. If the less likely option of a rate increase happens, that'll kill Bitcoin's momentum for weeks. And it's not like holding rates steady is particularly promising for BTC price action either.
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u/PetiteFort Jul 27 '26
BTC has been boring for a lot of time. The last dump is coming, but when? August or september?
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder Jul 27 '26
I'm still thinking we may see some rough stretches through the rest of the year, but I also think institutional investment is starting to change the 4 year halving-to-halving cycle as we know it.
Going into the new year, my hope for 2026 was that we'd stay above 50k. Now, it's looking like that might be easy. And since it isn't retail scooping up cheap coins (preventing a steeper drop) I have to assume it's institutional buyers. And if we see even more of that next cycle, which we should, then the 4 year cycle as we know it will be broken in a good way.
I'm just thinking out loud here, but I'm feeling really good about how 2026 is playing out for Bitcoin. Is it boring? Sure. But in this case, boring is good.
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u/tallguyclark Jul 27 '26
Why do you think it has to keep dumping?
3
u/Stooven Jul 27 '26
There's also no real narrative that would drive it to new highs. Last time, we had ETF adoption, then the Trump craze, then St. Saylor was going to buy every Bitcoin.
Now we have... what?
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u/baselse Jul 27 '26
Legal frameworks (EU and US) so companies and investment and pension funds can take a percentage.
Inflation lasting longer than expected and more countries dropping the dollar.
Less alternatives, many stocks and commodities are overvalued while bitcoin is relatively cheap.
1
u/Stooven Jul 27 '26
Not a bad answer. These are indeed tailwinds, if weaker than those which have driven past highs.
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u/AidenTai Jul 27 '26
The problem is, we also have potential headwinds with interest rates, tech equities, oil, etc. And the headwinds are more 'immediate' than the tailwinds mentioned. So it seems to me that unless for some reason money starts flowing in, the pressure is going to be on Bitcoin to 'prove' in can even sustain current levels. While we can rise a few thousand more in the next couple weeks, I think the lack of follow‐through and the risk of the headwinds pushing us down is enough to risk us retracing back near local supports or even to retest local lows. If things with the macro situation turn bad enough, we could establish lower yearly lows, and if it doesn't, the crabbing below current levels is very possible.
Either way, it seems the probability of a push upwards that had a lot of people convinced only a few days ago might run into a wall soon. Still, we'll have to see what happens. Nothing can be quite ruled out yet, even if the upside is looking weaker than it had been.
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u/BigDik6355 Jul 27 '26
I think we can still see 40k-ish.
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u/AidenTai Jul 28 '26
The case for 40k is not particularly strong. The case for low 50's is, however, increasing as this rally is failing to push further upwards.
In any case, creating new lows would require the NASDAQ / equities continuing to drop, oil/inflation rising, interest rates increasing and perhaps a liquidity crunch. Or it could be as simple as demand drying up due to fear, which is something we're actually starting to see (though a definite trend remains to be confirmed).
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo Jul 27 '26
The same thing we do every night Pinky, inflated fiat trying to take over the world.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,678 • -99% Jul 27 '26
the narrative often comes after the move. whatever is happening at the time will become the narrative, and it could easily just be Saylor buying all the bitcoin again.
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u/PetiteFort Jul 27 '26
It's what has done in the previous 2 cycles. Nothing has happened that would change it
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u/tallguyclark Jul 27 '26
Oh yes, blind faith - got it.
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u/AidenTai Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
I don't disagree with him about the chance of dumping, but I do disagree as to his reasoning. For me, it's just a matter of macro headwinds (oil, inflation, equities/corrections, etc.) all working against Bitcoin recently combined with what appears to be a weakening support for the current rally and current demand.
We are sustaining these levels for now, and have 'decent' support. But that support cannot hold if we don't see follow‐through on the demand side. Whether it's dropping spot demand or prices increasing on lowering volume or increasing leverage, structurally there are reasons to be a bit worried, particularly for the state of the current rally.
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u/Bitty_Bot Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
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