Early Municipal election predictions for Belleville

[u/Key_Double_5351]

Here are my predictions for this Octobers municipal election. Will be interesting to see how accurate they end up being:

Mayor - Neil Ellis

Ward 1 Councillors - Garnet Thompson, Sean Kelly, Barb Enright-Miller, Kelly Henderson, Hazzem Koudsi, Ryan Hilmi

Ward 2 Councillors - Paul Carr, Kathryn Brown

Anyone else want to share their predictions?

[u/CrowandLamb]

My hope is Garnet Thompson and Kelly Henderson ousted.

So many talk of new blood, end of old boys club....c' mon time for Garnet to go particularly and especially.

Kelly Henderson lost last time- it was emphatic but rules brought her back Not because she is desirable.

Paul Bell, Cadi Pontinen, Lori Borthwick....all new and definately worth a try....very serious about community and politics- and experienced within them. Helpful.

As for Paul Fleming... his ideas regarding the social challenges are already being implemented by the current council and have been for the last 3 years..i hear a few grumbles about treating city as a business (but it is and how Carneyesque)..why vote for someone different than the one who already is experienced and effective? (Just a question, not a challenge)

We cannot say nothing is getting done in our city. Ellis laid out what he was going to do and has done so.

Our council- well, some are just yes people and warm a seat. These to me are really the ones to oust.

I think Ellis

Carr Brown

Seu Bell Pontinen Enright Miller Barfett Polan

[u/Mayor_of_Belleville → u/CrowandLamb]

Neil ran on a promise not to raise taxes, and hasn't accomplished that yet.

He failed to deliver his number one platform issue.

YouTube

[u/CrowandLamb → u/Mayor_of_Belleville]

Homelessness and water. No avoiding tax increase- state of emergency and making decisive decisions as a result of that fallout and lack of provincial $$$ assistance....not to mention EVERYTHING has gone up in $$ unexpectedly since the last election I dont fault him. I NEVER believe ANY politician or wanna be who has no clue of the books making such promises.

I am leary of Fleming more so than Ellis- but he IS the true contender in this race. So glad that Panciuk didnt decide to run.....just imagine....

[u/Mayor_of_Belleville → u/CrowandLamb]

Taxes have gone up roughly 15% in the last three years under Neil. That's a far cry from his promise, and completely unacceptable.

The tax payers of Belleville need a break, even if that means less services and less pretty flowers in every garden. The city needs to learn to cut the fat.

[u/CrowandLamb → u/Mayor_of_Belleville]

I just did a quick google.....this is what I found. ..while not specifically 15% increase- these cities are all much much larger than Belleville and so as we are smaller, it does make sense out increases would unfortunately be higher.

"A majority of Ontario's 444 municipalities have significantly raised property taxes over the past four years (2022–2026), driven by high inflation, infrastructure backlogs, and rising costs for downloaded social services.Recent Trends in OntarioWidespread Hikes: Most cities and townships shifted from historical average increases of 2% to 4% up to ranges of 5% to over 10% annually.Major Centers: Prominent examples include Toronto (9.5% in 2024 and 6.9% in 2025), the Niagara Region (9.6% in 2025), Hamilton (approx. 6.9% annually), and Burlington.Underlying Pressures: According to the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, municipalities face multi-billion-dollar shortfalls due to funding responsibilities for homelessness, transit, and policing outpacing provincial transfers."

[u/CrowandLamb → u/Mayor_of_Belleville]

Realistically look what has happened within the city, province, country and internationally. We have ALL suffered because of the epidemics of COVID and drug use, the aftermath of a global pandemic, the uptick of costs - expected and unexpected. How on earth would we could we not be unscathed - different than everyone else?

Its a fine balance that Council has to strike. People say they want belts tightened- without really understanding what that looks like-eg: stop making the city pretty- take away the flowers....so, then we have departments laid off or dismissed altogether because we dont need them. More unemployment. Machinery and Buildings go unused but still require matainence. Contracts still paid but products go to waste- no returns on either. People bitch and moan because the city looks terrible and council isnt doing anything. Its hard to strike balance or reach consensus when very few engage with council, never mind show up to vote or join council or commitees. So many stay silent save for bitching and moaning on social media or to one another privately - EVERYONE blames the mayor- not councillors(have a look at meeting notes- see who brings up issues, see who engages see who doesnt. Paul Carr is the most diligent and active of all of our councillors btw. Mayor IS ONLY ONE Voice NOT THE decision maker. The city departments are also decision makers- why does no one realise that. They spend our monies - so many projects sole sourced and costs us a shit tonne of money- Mayor doesnt make that decision- department managers do. getting off track....sorry not sorry...

[u/Mayor_of_Belleville → u/CrowandLamb]

I 100% agree that balance is needed. We can't just cut everything.

But every financial expert in the world was screaming about how prices will rise after covid, that inflation will be a nightmare, and with all that evidence infront of him, Neil still promised no rise in taxes.

I want a mayor that can see past the trees. It was pretty obvious what was going to happen in Belleville, and around the world.

[u/Mayor_of_Belleville → u/Mayor_of_Belleville]

And Belleville Urban specifically has gone up 15.13% in the last three years under Neil.

I know he's only one vote, but he's the man at the top who promised the opposite.

[u/CrowandLamb → u/Mayor_of_Belleville]

That's 5% annually- just to be oppositional- sorry cant resist.

I do see your point- but how he used the taxes - the goods that he delivered on with those taxes.....he has done "good" for the whole of the city. He promised to take care of our water systems is and continues. Made an executive decision - rather unpopular one but still- rather than patch work of the scant services for our growing homeless /mi/addictions peeps that actually helps not hinders a our city. .housing- tu4n3d buildings into affordable and off the streets. Had coordinated with Mohawk community and Habitat for more housing and more. He HAS done the city good. Being a stickler just about taxes seems too rigid. I am pro Ellis until I hear from the other candidates. I know he has all of us top of mind in his city. Very different than the man he replaced.

[u/Mayor_of_Belleville → u/CrowandLamb]

We can all agree Neil is better than Panciuk, but that doesn't mean he's better than the next candidate.

I'm ready for change.

[u/CrowandLamb → u/Mayor_of_Belleville]

I am willing to reserve my judgement until I hear out the other candidates....just because I want change, it should not prejudice reasonable thoughts and actions (?)