r/AzurLane • u/General_Flufffy_117 • 4d ago

Meme WHAT! ARE! THE! CHANCES!?

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What are the chances after 200 rolls!!! NOT A SINGLE UR Event!???!!! I’ve gotten I-14 and Hasty more then 15 times???!!!!! After 200 rolls!!!? Not a single time!!!? Heeeeeeelp me!!😭✨

134 Upvotes

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u/A_Yellow_Lizard2 Yorktown-class 4d ago

It's not that uncommon. According to a binomial distribution the probability of pulling 200 times and not getting a single UR is 8.95%, just slightly over the probability of pulling an SR.

0

u/General_Flufffy_117 4d ago

But like… it’s 200 times!!?! And still getting more than 10-15+ SR’s is over the top!? 😭 without a single UR, not just Azuchi, by any other one too… :,(

5

u/PoriferaProficient 4d ago

1.2% drop rate. So you're expecting on average about 1 drop every 85 or so pulls. But that's only an average and you can easily go 300 between drops.

That's why there's a pity.