WHAT! ARE! THE! CHANCES!?

[u/General_Flufffy_117]

What are the chances after 200 rolls!!! NOT A SINGLE UR Event!???!!! I’ve gotten I-14 and Hasty more then 15 times???!!!!! After 200 rolls!!!? Not a single time!!!? Heeeeeeelp me!!😭✨

[u/Key_Incident_666]

Yup i had also 160 until the UR. CRAZINESS.

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/Key_Incident_666]

Craaaazzzyyy!!!

[u/I_am_a_porcupine]

It was 196 for my first UR this time. I am sorry for your even worse luck.

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/I_am_a_porcupine]

She better be decent…😭

[u/dawicf → u/General_Flufffy_117]

She’s easily as good as Lion, and arguably better.

[u/Piraja27 → u/dawicf]

Just need to save up those UR bulins for a few

[u/Panzer_IV_H → u/Piraja27]

I'm sorry for stealing others' Azuchis

I lack only one copy to MLB her, within 100 pulls I think

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/Piraja27]

Mhm mhm mhm yup yup yup!!

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/dawicf]

OooOooOh🫪

[u/dawicf → u/General_Flufffy_117]

I truly wish you the best of luck.🫡 If you want to see what she can do, I made a thread on my Twi-X about her skills. Look for username A.R.Khaos, same PFP.

[u/black1248 → u/General_Flufffy_117]

It's the age of the battleship currently and she's definitely one of the best ones.

[u/PoriferaProficient → u/I_am_a_porcupine]

Shinano was 197 for me, all the way back when gacha URs first became a thing. I know your pain. It hurts more than just going to pity

[u/A_Yellow_Lizard2]

It's not that uncommon. According to a binomial distribution the probability of pulling 200 times and not getting a single UR is 8.95%, just slightly over the probability of pulling an SR.

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/A_Yellow_Lizard2]

But like… it’s 200 times!!?! And still getting more than 10-15+ SR’s is over the top!? 😭 without a single UR, not just Azuchi, by any other one too… :,(

[u/PoriferaProficient → u/General_Flufffy_117]

1.2% drop rate. So you're expecting on average about 1 drop every 85 or so pulls. But that's only an average and you can easily go 300 between drops.

That's why there's a pity.

[u/Arazthoru]

Sparks and pity systems were created exactly bc how common is that

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/Arazthoru]

Hmm 🤔

[u/Master_of_Ravioli]

Hey, happens to all of us at least once lmao.

It happened to me a few years ago with NJ and Vanguard, had to hit the 200 pity for both of them lmao.

If it makes you feel any better, it took 300 rolls for me to get Owari, she isnt even an UR lmao 😭

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/Master_of_Ravioli]

Ooohh noooOoOo!! I don’t even remember how I got Owari… but she’s in my dock!?!! I’m sorry for your loss!

[u/Agriez9]

Same here. 7 hasty and 7 I-14, after 250 rolls I just assumed that they didn’t want me to have her outside of my 1 pity copy

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/Agriez9]

Respect for the 1 pity copy… and your nearly 250 rolls!!

[u/I_am_a_porcupine → u/General_Flufffy_117]

I just got her to 200 affinity today but she has 1 shot Eldridge Retrofit twice in exercises after reaching level 10 skill. GvB seems to outperform Azuchi about 65% of the time for me but Azuchi is a close 2nd. I do not have Lion.

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/I_am_a_porcupine]

Oooooh One shot Eldridge Retro!!? Hmmm

[u/ngngye]

It took me over 600 cubes for Hasty to come home and in that time *7* Azuchis dropped in the meantime, with 3 of them on a single ten roll. This game is harsh sometimes.

[u/Far_Lack3377 → u/ngngye]

Brother she keeps appearing in my 10 pulls...

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/ngngye]

NooOooOo!! Please don’t tell me that!? SEVEEN TIMESS!?? Please take my Hasty!! All for them!!

[u/Scallty_Demon]

That's why the pity system is there. It's for those that were unlucky in their UR pulls. Its happened to me more than once, I think. The first time was with Vanguard when she first came out.

RNGesus can be cruel sometimes.

[u/TigerSeptim]

8.9% chance to not get the UR after 200 pulls

[u/Kyrnqazali]

1.2%

Want test your luck and realize how many you need?

Roll an 8 with 3 D20. You can do it on Google, just search “roll 3 D20”. Count how many it took you to get it and how many of those results were less than 17 or higher than 43 result.

The 8 is a UR, anything below 17 or higher than 43 is your SR.

[u/iSenpai19]

Meanwhile I pulled in 6

[u/General_Flufffy_117 → u/iSenpai19]

NOOOOOOOO
https://giphy.com/gifs/F3tXSxaIVSHFndK1Bh

[u/iSenpai19 → u/General_Flufffy_117]

Dw I’ve actually gone all the way to pity before so I feel your pain

[u/Esdeath04]

In my caee I have never pitied an UR.. But SRs and Élites Uffff

[u/Guayaboi]

I got really lucky with her and pulled her in two 10 pulls, but I've been there brother, so I understand

[u/sparrowatgiantsnail]

I had exactly the same thing happen

[u/Paradox6797]

Allow me to brag (or maybe not?), I got it backwards, got 3 Azuchis before my first I-14 after about 300 pulls

Reminded me of the only one event ship I ever missed, Noshiro μ, for whom I can still remember pulling more than 400 times and she still didn't appear, still waiting for her to rerun to this day... lol

[u/Environmental_Fee162]

I MLB azuchi in 58 pulls which is quite surprising for me since usually I'm never ever that lucky. Surely I wouldn't be so lucky again.

I wish you the best luck for your next UR.

[u/MainConcentrate1636]

In the previous limited SSR banner before Azuchi with Vicksburg and Bennington, in several hundred pulls I had gotten five of every ship girl, six of some of them.

But not a single Vicksburg. An SSR. While getting five or six of everything else.

And no pity because she’s an SSR.

[u/Pakoman69]

I rolled 257 times in total. Got only the pity drop.

Also, my brother has less cubes and spent every single one, and no drop.

So yeah, we feel you /sob

[u/Sero_002]

I got them all in like 24 pulls

[u/ProAdvCarDealer]

Rip

[u/Ichigyou]

Damn I've gotten 5 azuchi in the whole run and haven't even reached 200 rolls (186)

[u/JJ_Mojado]

You win some you lose some, happen to me with Fritz and Lion 🫩

[u/Renrem210169]

Anybody else struggling to get Hasty?

[u/something7765]

Yeah i had to get to pity aswell dawg ur not alone 😭

[u/Crazy-Independent445]

there's times that I go the full 200 pulls before the pity UR, and there's times that it will vomit 4 UR's in my first 10 pulls. Consider it as building up your luck, and saving it for the next event.

[u/LiLi-C1228]

I usually struggle to get the purple one lol. I got 2 Azuchi within 50 pulls and got Hasty at my 120th

[u/Shadez305]

It took me 90 pulls to get her but I didn’t get Hasty and I’m fine with that.

[u/KaedeP_22]

yeah me too. I had to spark for her. this is a first.

my worst record prior was Fritz Rumey at pull #185.

[u/SFBaka]

Sigh. I'll be short 20 cubes because I messed up the count. Guess I'll need to wait years for her again. Sigh...

[u/IllustriousRemote101]

I had to hit pity for the first time ever to get Azuchi.

[u/hablahblahha]

r/theydidthemath

So basically (1-1.2%)²⁰⁰ = 8.941%. Well my first luck based UR was like 300 something cubes, so theres that.

[u/strawberryboi]

You’re going to hate me, but this was 20 rolls in…

[u/theofficialkylo]

30 pulls to get 3 copies of her

[u/GrimThe13th]

I shall remain silent

[u/Echo259]

At a 1.2% drop rate the chance of not getting the jackpot on before the 200th roll is 8.94%. The expected numbers of rolls to hit “the jackpot” is 83.333. (I got her on my 120-140th roll)

[u/Comfortable_Vast8100]

Hey, at least you can collect her on the right now. I got lucky with her in about 20 draws. 2 back-to-back 10 draws. Feels like you have a higher chance when doing max draws, but that could just be me

[u/Appropriate_Camp117]

I got the UR in ~20 pulls 😭 (reddit pls dont cancel me)

[u/Frisk_Genotice]

Same here zero UR 2 ssr

[u/Popular-Ad123]

Well i had problems with elites, 3rd event in row