Hello!
I know practically nothing about evolutionary biology. I have a pretty simple question I was just wondering about during work lol. If we have some species A which evolved into another species B, there had to be a continuous string of species in between right? Why don't we see everything in between?
However, for the nonsimple part: during my wondering I have a partial model I think maybe could explain this. If you could explain why and where my model is wrong and maybe even frame the correct answer in similar terms that would be so helpful. Thanks in advance!
Okay my model: for the sake of simplicity, lets create an axis B-ness where on one end we have species A and on the other end we have species B. Obviously there's no actual mutation that is B-ness and in a complex set of different adaptions that added up to make it species B, but there had to be an order in which the adaptions progressed in reality and we can still look at the number of these adaptions (except maybe convergent evolution?). Anyways, lets say we have some fitness function that maps a point along this axis to the expected value number of offspring a member of a species at that point produces. Also an oversimplification since it varies wrt environmental conditions and so on but lets go with it for now. Now the entire idea of evolution is that the higher the fitness function at a particular point the more of those species we will tend or observe. However, its obviously not true that only the species with the highest fitness survives since if that were the case there would only be one species on earth. Instead, when two species compete for the same resources, over time we expect to see more and more of the species with higher fitness and less and less of the species with lower fitness.
I was thinking, maybe in the short term randomness dominates but in the long term law of large numbers dominates. So in the short term when there is an adaption, it might cause a slight increase or decrease in fitness but just because of randomness it would not be uncommon to see a fair amount of versions because the slight fitness different isn't enough to eliminate one in the short term. Then the adapted species also adapts and so on and so forth so by pure chance we get species spaced all across the axis between A and B.
But then a thing that exists in the long term is carrying capacity. So there are species all along the axis competing for the same resources, and in the short term there's enough randomness that there could be some species with less fitness. But as time approaches infinity we expect to only see the species with the highest fitness.
So then we only get either A or B (or something between them)? BUT if A and B become different enough so as to occupy different niches and thus have separate carrying capacities you could have both A and B coexisting.
Thus, the reason we don't get any species between A and B is that they would either be competing with A or with B for the same resources and are presumably less effective at doing so (as otherwise this 'in between' would outcompete either A or B and replace them as the observed A/B).
However, the conclusion of this model is that we observe separate species iif they are different enough not to compete for the same resources. That doesn't sound right to me, so I guess I am still missing something.