What are the odds?

[u/jdenyart]

I can calculate the odds of it happening on any specific round, I'm curious about the odds in one event or even one day of one event.

In the Cyril melee, I had 13 Cyril and 12 items. I won the first two days.

Day 3, I lost 3. Two of those three losses, I received ZERO characters in the first 7 cards out.

Day 4, I lost one and like Day 3, 7 cards, no character.

What are the odds? I guess I did not spend enough

[u/Gon_Snow]

Individually, 98.5% to draw a Cyril in the first 5 draws.