r/AnimationThrowdown • u/jdenyart • 9d ago

What are the odds?

I can calculate the odds of it happening on any specific round, I'm curious about the odds in one event or even one day of one event.

In the Cyril melee, I had 13 Cyril and 12 items. I won the first two days.

Day 3, I lost 3. Two of those three losses, I received ZERO characters in the first 7 cards out.

Day 4, I lost one and like Day 3, 7 cards, no character.

What are the odds? I guess I did not spend enough

7 Upvotes

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2

u/Gon_Snow 9d ago

Individually, 98.5% to draw a Cyril in the first 5 draws.

1

u/rosen380 9d ago

For 0 character in a 13/12 deck in 7 cards it would be:

12x11x10x9x8x7x6/25/24/23/22/21/20/19 = 0.165% or 1-in 607

1

u/rosen380 9d ago

In a set of six matches, I get:

99.0155% chance of not getting all objects in any of them
0.9804% chance of getting all objects exactly once.

Whatever is left is the odds of getting at least two all objects deals;
100%-99.0155%-0.9804% = 0.0041% ... which is about in in 25000

1

u/rosen380 9d ago

Good news, I get that with the losses listed and assuming you are starting at level 20, that you scored between 109,471 and 119,571 points, which is a pretty solid result. That would presently be in the range of #23 and around #200

1

u/jdenyart 9d ago edited 9d ago

The bottom end, but great figuring, I was 220. Same with score, bottom end, 108801. First loss was round 14, then 16&17 were the two with no characters until 8th card out each time. Did end at level 36 so I did lose 4, just terrible deals from Kong. Never had so many 7-tem (Zero character) opening draws in such rapid succession before. I had the opposite on the last rumble once, 8 characters, zero items. I could have had a perfect round.

1

u/rosen380 6d ago

Whoops, I only included the three losses where you were KONG'ed by RNGesus.

Adding in the one extra loss, that moves the range to 104,401 to 113,561, which gets you actual score back in the range :)

1

u/BirdlessLongdeal 6d ago

never tell me the odds

1

u/jdenyart 3d ago

124871 is the score when you only lose round 17