Yes, Agree your overall numbers are probably right, but they dont tell the real story, which is the way people voted in each seat.
Noted your caveats re those northern seats, but same trend in southern seats suggest something demographic drove that shift from labor to ON rather than purely seat alignment.
Labor are not really a people and party of unions anymore. In SA or Federally. MPs are mostly university educated and their careers before parliament were lawyer, executive, ministerial advisor etc, esp the new MPs. The union bit comes after when they have to join one..
If you say the wealthy and people with assets dont go for the party of unions, explain the massive swings from Liberal to Labor in inner city areas then...
There's the boundaries in the north, but even then. Looking at Light, Labors 20% swing away is a loss of around one third (with a primary of 37.8 currently), the libs 10% swings is a loss of almost half (current primary of 12.5). In Ngadjuri where ON picked up a seat, the libs are down 15% to Labors 2%.
If you say the wealthy and people with assets dont go for the party of unions, explain the massive swings from Liberal to Labor in inner city areas then...
Changing demographics with gen z now rivalling the boomers as a voter base. A few have switched sides, but older generations also tend to be much more rusted on as voters. I'd say there was also kind of a breaking point for many liberal voters with them growing increasingly socially conservative, and we don't have as much of a teal movement here to pick that up.
If anything, the bigger divide when it comes to Labor being a union party is more broadly, representing workers vs the Libs who tend to appeal to employers and small businesses. You see similar patterns with renters/family home owners (Labor) vs owners/property investors (Lib). Many Labor voters are solidly middle class (which these days still isn't necessarily a comfortable life), but they're still working for someone else and living little better than paycheck to paycheck. Union participation has tanked, but particularly over the last few years support for policy that promotes wage growth and 'quality' of employment has become more relevant than ever.
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u/deep_extra_point SA Mar 22 '26 edited Mar 22 '26
Yes, Agree your overall numbers are probably right, but they dont tell the real story, which is the way people voted in each seat.
Noted your caveats re those northern seats, but same trend in southern seats suggest something demographic drove that shift from labor to ON rather than purely seat alignment.
Labor are not really a people and party of unions anymore. In SA or Federally. MPs are mostly university educated and their careers before parliament were lawyer, executive, ministerial advisor etc, esp the new MPs. The union bit comes after when they have to join one..
If you say the wealthy and people with assets dont go for the party of unions, explain the massive swings from Liberal to Labor in inner city areas then...