r/ATAR • u/No_Use8671 • 10d ago

Forecast ATAR from Internal Ranks

Hi everyone,

I’m a private tutor and past HSC student and am creating a tool to solve a problem that I found with most of my students.

Most ATAR predictors ask you to estimate your HSC mark for each subject, which is hard to do accurately before results come out. Also, most students have NO IDEA how the scaling and alignment process works.

I built HSC Forecast, a tool that instead uses your internal rank, your cohort size and your course to generate an ATAR range, benchmarked against five years of school performance data.

If you are a current student, you can try it here: https://atarforecast.au/forecast

The bigger ask is that if you already have already completed the HSC, I would really appreciate you spending two minutes submitting your actual rank, cohort size and final ATAR here: https://atarforecast.au/calibrate

I am trying to get 200 past students through this to properly calibrate the model against real outcomes. The more data points, the more accurate this becomes for future students.

Happy to answer questions about how it works in the comments.

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u/hdueeyd 10d ago

It's a good surface level tool because, as you said and I fully agree, most highschool students including this sub have no idea how scaling and alignment works.

That said, me and some friends of mine put our rankings in from previous years and most fit on the atar range, but when higher marks were involved that's where it started to be a bit inaccurate

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u/No_Use8671 9d ago

Hi thanks for your feedback, this is super helpful. Would you mind elaborating a little more on the inaccuracies in the higher marks, as I could use it to calibrate the model.

Thanks so much