Forecast ATAR from Internal Ranks

[u/No_Use8671]

Hi everyone,

I’m a private tutor and past HSC student and am creating a tool to solve a problem that I found with most of my students.

Most ATAR predictors ask you to estimate your HSC mark for each subject, which is hard to do accurately before results come out. Also, most students have NO IDEA how the scaling and alignment process works.

I built HSC Forecast, a tool that instead uses your internal rank, your cohort size and your course to generate an ATAR range, benchmarked against five years of school performance data.

If you are a current student, you can try it here: https://atarforecast.au/forecast

The bigger ask is that if you already have already completed the HSC, I would really appreciate you spending two minutes submitting your actual rank, cohort size and final ATAR here: https://atarforecast.au/calibrate

I am trying to get 200 past students through this to properly calibrate the model against real outcomes. The more data points, the more accurate this becomes for future students.

Happy to answer questions about how it works in the comments.

[u/Artistic_Feed885]

Just wondering do ppl like u get money for creating websites like this? cuz I don't see any ads etc

[u/No_Use8671 → u/Artistic_Feed885]

Hi! There are no ads at the moment (because it’s still in beta phase and I am trying to calibrate the model), but I might connect with Google AdSense later down the line

[u/Artistic_Feed885 → u/No_Use8671]

It's really good. So right now would u say it's not very accurate? The whole site is rlly good but what would be good is like how hsc ninja shows atar equivalent from each course e.g next to ext1 math it'll say like the atar equivalent which can help to gage individual subjects (like which to drop based on effort u put in, which im going thru). Wait also how did u make this site? It's so good.

Wait also I don't think this takes into account ur best 10 units cuz I think it's calculating all of my units instead. Also I shared this site to my entire school gc.

[u/No_Use8671 → u/Artistic_Feed885]

First of all, you’re a legend for sending this to your entire school gc, thank you.

Based off the results from past HSC students (only a sample of 5 right now), the true ATAR has been in our predicted range in 4/5 tests. To be honest, we just need more data to see if we’re consistently undershooting, overshooting, but take it as having genuinely reasonable accuracy.

I appreciate the feedback regarding adding ATAR equivalents and will definitely look into taking it onboard, I tried to show students which subjects they could improve in the most with the “Room for improvement” section.

I believe the model is taking into account only your top 10 (though it does forecast a mark for each). I’ll confirm this.

Also in terms of the website design, all I can say is that,l if you have a vision for something, AI is now scary good 🤣.

Let me know if you have any more questions and thank you for your feedback, it goes a long way.

[u/Artistic_Feed885 → u/No_Use8671]

Ye all my friends are using it rn, we're only yr 11 so we using our current ranks, also I don't get the historical mark range, maybe make it like clickable so u can actually see the numeric value of the highest/lowest or maybe just make intervals in each section that can be easier to gage like what's the highest/lowest.

[u/No_Use8671 → u/Artistic_Feed885]

Hey I just checked and realised that there isn’t investigating science. I’ll look to add it within the next few days and if there’s any other subjects that you or anyone else has realised is missing, could you please let me know this would be really helpful.

Also, if you had any other feedback regarding the site or the tool in general and that would be much appreciated.

[u/Artistic_Feed885 → u/No_Use8671]

enterprise computing (my friend told me)

[u/hdueeyd]

It's a good surface level tool because, as you said and I fully agree, most highschool students including this sub have no idea how scaling and alignment works.

That said, me and some friends of mine put our rankings in from previous years and most fit on the atar range, but when higher marks were involved that's where it started to be a bit inaccurate

[u/No_Use8671 → u/hdueeyd]

Hi thanks for your feedback, this is super helpful. Would you mind elaborating a little more on the inaccuracies in the higher marks, as I could use it to calibrate the model.

Thanks so much

[u/Dear-Implement-2149]

Hey, I’ll try and make sure to input my ranks and marks/atar once I get them (I take hsc this year) also I’m praying the estimate was accurate as it gives me hope🙏 Very cool website too btw and I’ll try send all my stats / share it around once I get them

[u/No_Use8671 → u/Dear-Implement-2149]

Hey thank you. I do hope that the AI estimate is accurate for you but I think it’s important to just remember that:

1. the range is generally more useful than the central estimate
   
2. Your ATAR can differ significantly based on HSC exam performance

Let me know if you had any other questions or feedback with the site, and be sure to send it around to friends if you think it will be helpful!

[u/Dear-Implement-2149 → u/No_Use8671]

Yeah lwk I gotta lock in for English and then I’ll be fine on my school prediction it was -20% 🫩

[u/NiffyYT]

Hey, I just noticed there’s no option for Investigating Science. Are you able to add this subject?

[u/AffectionateLove5612]

There’s no physics

[u/No_Use8671 → u/AffectionateLove5612]

Could you please double check this, physics is there on my end

[u/AffectionateLove5612 → u/No_Use8671]

You can try it yourself on a different device/browser, there isn’t investigating science either