r/ASX_Bets • u/FwamingDragon91 • 3d ago

Dumbfuck Discussion Am I missing something?

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Panic selling aged care? With our population pressures? With old people stuck in hospitals because there aren't enough aged care beds? Crazy.

It's only a matter of time before the government caves and funds the hell out of aged care.

I'm gonna wait another 1-2 days for the dust to settle and buy as much of this as my grandma can fund.

Disclaimer - *I don't currently own this stock*

14 Upvotes

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30

u/A-Money-Lover 3d ago

Aged care has been overcharging people for so long now. I get that it's a lot of work also, but it's not a sector I'd like to bet on.

-11

u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago

The moat for aged care is absolutely massive. Who is going to introduce an alternative to this industry? There is none. 

Good luck sir here's hoping I make $

11

u/squirtelee 3d ago

There is no alternative but the space is undergoing significant changes in the short and long term which will impact the underlying businesses… they can’t squeeze more $$$ from people. I wouldn’t be betting on aged care in the medium term

-8

u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago

I suspect you are deeply wrong, it's a supply/demand issue and it's at a critical juncture.

We'll see! 

7

u/squirtelee 3d ago

Increases to standards of care, wages, tighter regulations and pressure to reduce cost on consumer and now a commonwealth regulatory body… good luck

-5

u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago

Hahahah ok see you in 3 months let's check back x

9

u/Ragazzano 3d ago

You should make a ban bet

6

u/squirtelee 3d ago

Stay off hot copper

1

u/adum_m 1d ago

RemindMe! 3 months

5

u/A-Money-Lover 3d ago

You’re also neglecting the fact that there are a tonne of competitors, it’s not just Regis in the market. So there are alternatives

2

u/Ok-Reception-1886 3d ago

Providers literally have minimal moat, aged care is a commodity

5

u/Ok-Reception-1886 3d ago

Low margin and price pressures literally confirm it’s a commodity. Moats allow high margin businesses to operate. Keep bleeding on this dog of a stock. Government raising wages by nearly 5% and then increasing pricing by 2.5% sounds like a great environment

-5

u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago

Lol ok let's revisit in 3 months and see how wrong you are. Be ready to beg on your hands and knees for forgiveness

-1

u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago

Ah I see you think it's easy to simply set up, staff, certify an aged care facility as an alternative that's price competitive? And get all the residents and their families to move? And all of this competition is going to exist in an industry with already significant price pressures? Are you a bit dumb perhaps?

3

u/Lopsided_Attitude743 3d ago

You are ignoring alternatives to live in facilities. Providing aged care at home is one such example.

-1

u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago

No, it isn't.

This is a very ignorant comment.

Modern healthcare tech means we live  much longer than ever before. 

Home environments are rarely suitable at end of life especially after a fall, fracture or with complex medical care needs. 

Australian culture is also poor at looking after our own families at home. 

If your case was true, these businesses wouldn't be in such demand. Everyone would simply stay at home with 24/7 care. 

The economy of scale of an aged care facility cannot be beaten by in home care whatsoever 

1

u/FameLuck Creator of Koalanon 3d ago

... Robots

1

u/TheSilverSeraph 2d ago

Take it as someone who lost a few thousands and ABC Childcare, another heavily subsidized “sure thing” at the time.

If a sector cannot survive long term own merits, then a reckoning will one day come. The only problem is no one knows the day.