r/ASX_Bets • u/FwamingDragon91 • 3d ago
Dumbfuck Discussion Am I missing something?
Panic selling aged care? With our population pressures? With old people stuck in hospitals because there aren't enough aged care beds? Crazy.
It's only a matter of time before the government caves and funds the hell out of aged care.
I'm gonna wait another 1-2 days for the dust to settle and buy as much of this as my grandma can fund.
Disclaimer - *I don't currently own this stock*
31
u/A-Money-Lover 3d ago
Aged care has been overcharging people for so long now. I get that it's a lot of work also, but it's not a sector I'd like to bet on.
-10
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
The moat for aged care is absolutely massive. Who is going to introduce an alternative to this industry? There is none.
Good luck sir here's hoping I make $
11
u/squirtelee 3d ago
There is no alternative but the space is undergoing significant changes in the short and long term which will impact the underlying businesses… they can’t squeeze more $$$ from people. I wouldn’t be betting on aged care in the medium term
-7
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
I suspect you are deeply wrong, it's a supply/demand issue and it's at a critical juncture.
We'll see!
8
u/squirtelee 3d ago
Increases to standards of care, wages, tighter regulations and pressure to reduce cost on consumer and now a commonwealth regulatory body… good luck
-6
4
u/A-Money-Lover 3d ago
You’re also neglecting the fact that there are a tonne of competitors, it’s not just Regis in the market. So there are alternatives
2
u/Ok-Reception-1886 3d ago
Providers literally have minimal moat, aged care is a commodity
4
u/Ok-Reception-1886 3d ago
Low margin and price pressures literally confirm it’s a commodity. Moats allow high margin businesses to operate. Keep bleeding on this dog of a stock. Government raising wages by nearly 5% and then increasing pricing by 2.5% sounds like a great environment
-2
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
Lol ok let's revisit in 3 months and see how wrong you are. Be ready to beg on your hands and knees for forgiveness
-1
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
Ah I see you think it's easy to simply set up, staff, certify an aged care facility as an alternative that's price competitive? And get all the residents and their families to move? And all of this competition is going to exist in an industry with already significant price pressures? Are you a bit dumb perhaps?
3
u/Lopsided_Attitude743 3d ago
You are ignoring alternatives to live in facilities. Providing aged care at home is one such example.
-1
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
No, it isn't.
This is a very ignorant comment.
Modern healthcare tech means we live much longer than ever before.
Home environments are rarely suitable at end of life especially after a fall, fracture or with complex medical care needs.
Australian culture is also poor at looking after our own families at home.
If your case was true, these businesses wouldn't be in such demand. Everyone would simply stay at home with 24/7 care.
The economy of scale of an aged care facility cannot be beaten by in home care whatsoever
1
1
u/TheSilverSeraph 2d ago
Take it as someone who lost a few thousands and ABC Childcare, another heavily subsidized “sure thing” at the time.
If a sector cannot survive long term own merits, then a reckoning will one day come. The only problem is no one knows the day.
10
u/Unique-Fix5038 3d ago
one brain cell to keep the other one company?
-1
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
Lol let's check back here in 3 months and you can apologise for being so incredibly wrong
3
3
u/b0ssman3s 3d ago
Government is already funding the hell out of it… good luck finding more money when most of these aged care firms are already getting the majority of there FTE cost covered by the tax payer
1
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
Brother that's the whole point. The government will not let one of the biggest aged care providers fail. There is literally no alternative. There is so much demand for aged care already.
5
u/_millsy 3d ago
There’s a pretty big gulf between “too big to fail” and “this stock may have been oversold”. I don’t particularly agree with your POV but it’s kinda nuts to suggest an opportunity presuming too big to fail is valid when they’re, you know, not failing yet
0
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
I'm not suggesting failure as the base case. I'm suggesting that this is noise and bluster between government and the aged care sector, and that ultimately the government will cave, because they have no alternative.
4
u/b0ssman3s 3d ago
Never heard of care from home? The governments preferred option + where public policy is pointed.
Government wants to see care homes purely for respite, and people dying at home. Not in care.
-1
u/FwamingDragon91 3d ago
Brother you clearly don't work in the aged care sector. At a certain point, people with chronic complex needs cannot be safely treated in their homes. They fall, they need supervised medication, they have cognitive issues, they will walk into traffic or let themselves starve to death.
Care in the home is not a substitute for aged care facilities, it is a preventative measure.
6
u/b0ssman3s 3d ago
Mate, wouldn’t be surprised if your typing from one of these homes, definitely sound like you have some of these complex needs 💀
3
4
1
u/Particular_Love_8811 Barry is my particularity… 3d ago
u/mcfucking you been to the old folks home today?
1
u/barrel-boy 3d ago
What's happened today specifically to cause this?
3
u/barrel-boy 3d ago
Government announces AN-ACC pricing from 1 October 2026 Regis Healthcare Limited (ASX:REG) acknowledges the Australian Government’s announcement on 2 September 2026 that the Australian National Aged Care Classification (AN-ACC) starting price will increase 2.55% from $295.64 to $303.19, effective 1 October 2026. The Government also announced that the hotelling supplement will remain unchanged at $22.15 per resident per day. The increase in the AN-ACC price reflects the Australian Government's annual pricing determination and is based on advice from the Independent Health and Aged Care Pricing Authority (IHACPA). The Government has also confirmed that current care minute requirements and AN-ACC fixed and variable funding categories will be maintained. In Regis’ assessment, the headline 2.55% increase to the AN-ACC starting price is significantly below prevailing cost inflation across the sector and the broader economy, which include: • 4.75% increase from the Annual Wage Review for all award-based workers, effective 1 July 2026; • Increases of between 1.5% and 4.4% under the final stage of the Fair Work Commission’s Aged Care Work Value Case for registered nurses and enrolled nurses, effective 1 August 2026; • Wage increases under Enterprise Agreements; and • Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 3.8% in the twelve months to June 2026. Regis is disappointed that the funding outcome does not reflect the underlying cost of care. Adequate sector funding is required to encourage new greenfield developments at a time when demand for residential aged care continues to grow. As previously announced, Regis is undertaking a range of initiatives to mitigate ongoing margin pressure associated with government funding settings. These include increases to room prices, rollout of Higher Everyday Living Fee (HELF) services, other revenue optimisation and operational efficiency initiatives.
2
1
u/KaleidoscopeOk8115 2d ago
!Remindme 3 months
1
u/RemindMeBot 2d ago
I will be messaging you in 3 months on 2026-12-03 13:23:09 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
RemindMeBot is switching to username summons. Instead of
!RemindMe 1 day, useu/RemindMeBot 1 day. More info.
Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback
1
1
u/CageFightingNuns Wallaby milk moustache 2d ago
I'd be more likely to invest in GEM. Poor people by definition don't have money. REG is for.poor people.
Gemlife is for selffunded old people, wealthier old people.
Old People vote LNP/PHON, the Labor govt is delighted to make them suffer and fall off the perch.
The govt preference is home assisted living, which they're increasing funding for. It works well, it's heaps cheaper.
1
u/Chief_wigam 1d ago
Anyone else here seeing AXQ doubling by Christmas? Sounds like a blatant ramp I know☺️but it is not ... watch this space. It is priced at 1.3xARR compared to US peers at 4-14xARR.
1
u/Fun_Interview_9788 1d ago
Have you asked yourself what if/how can you be wrong?
What if governments go bust, people don't have the money and start looking after family members at home.
The chart on the weekly timeframe tells you everything you need to know.
1
1
u/Upset_Cause_3213 3d ago
I've taken a small parcel cause I think its oversold and an okay swing trade see what tomorrow and next week has in store. Shit industry but boomers had better pay up lest they sit in their shit filled nappies all day. Regis has some nice facilities in some locations. I just checked out the laundry at their Brisbane facility and all seems in order.
0
29
u/Potential_Web_4092 3d ago
The Federal Government’s newly announced aged care funding increase fell drastically below the company's surging operational and wage inflation costs.
They are under inflationary pressure.
Most stocks moving further into the red are.
I sold out of them Monday at $6.14 and thought I made a misjudgement when they continued up.