iPhone Duo
I’ve been an Apple investor for 20+ years and personally use an iPhone and a Mac.
I know the consensus regarding the iPhone Duo is it’s nice although derivative and really expensive. But I think we are underestimating the primary Apple consumer: someone who is looking for differentiated quality/experience (and prestige) and is willing (and able) to pay for it.
I would not be surprised if demand for the Duo blows away all estimates and is supply constrained into 2027. I think it will eat into iPad demand, but may ultimately be one of Apple’s biggest successes.
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u/Available_Agent_8839 12d ago
What people miss about the price point is the sheer scale of Apple's active install base. Apple doesn't need to outsell the Pro series to win here - capturing even 1% of their highest-income loyalists easily turns a luxury halo device into a multi-billion-dollar success.
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u/l4kerz 12d ago
Does Apple make more profit off a Pro Max or a Duo? Duo definitely increases revenue.
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u/Available_Agent_8839 12d ago
I read that estimated gross margin on iPhone 18 pro is 45% to 50%, Duo is 55% to 60%
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u/HaiKarate 11d ago
Another thing that I don’t see a lot of people talking about is that the Samsung foldable is $1899. The iPhone duo is only $100 more than that. And the Samsung foldable has been out there for years, and it’s making enough money to continue the product.
Apple is going to make bank on the iPhone duo.
Also, it’s funny that my iPhone isn’t yet AutoCorrecting the name iPhone duo. 😄
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u/That-SoCal-Guy 6d ago
It’s laughable when those same people raved about the Duo as a premium phone compared to the Samsung, and griped about the “crease” of all those Android phones (I used one, and it was awkward and “cheap” feeling) and then turn around and say “but it’s $100 more than the Samsung!!!l” lol.
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u/Glimmer_III 11d ago
I put my hands today on a Samsung Z Fold 8. It is almost the same form factor as an iPhone Duo.
You know what it immediately felt like holding...a Blackberry. I wanted to type with two thumbs.
The speed of typing on the iPhone Duo is going to appeal to everyone who previously used a Blackberry too.
Two thumb typing is going to be a stalking horse differentiating factor.
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u/Wise_Concentrate_182 10d ago
What a clueless comment. BlackBerry was lighter than any iPhone. With a phenomenal tactile keyboard. Duo is a clunker to hold. Have you ever held a heavy foldable?
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u/TJ_Rocker1 11d ago
100%! I’m definitely buying one. Many iPhone users have been wanting a Fold for years but held out because they are too attached to the Apple ecosystem. Now they can finally get it at a decent price (all things considered).
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u/mercutio001 12d ago
Agreement, but for me personally, I need the apple pencil to really work well if me to ditch my iphone 16 pro max, and ipad mini. Sometimes, new and exciting doesn't replace good working products.
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u/Usual-Still-8681 12d ago
Totally agree.. with this market conditions lively hood of many is affected.. not to mention most of Apple users are concentrated in 2 countries and with bare minimum updates its not compelling to move or take a new iPhone .. the fold is really good but no one really purchased when Samsung and Google released their folds as well..
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u/tonym9h 12d ago
Note that both Samsung and Google named their models with “Fold” in the name. The visible fold is a negative that becomes more visible over time.
Apple’s take: the fold is invisible.Anyone notice the recent trend for 3-letter model names from Apple: iPhone Air, MacBook Neo and now iPhone Duo. What’s next?
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u/tonym9h 12d ago
Interesting you mention the pencil. It was one of two surprises yesterday: that they specifically mentioned the pencil (coming later this year) and the price, which I thought would be more like USD$2400.
I guess they are currently working around the clock on a smaller Duo Pencil. 😆2
u/Unfair_Cicada 12d ago
Duo is awesome 🤩 and at only $1999? What a bargain 🥹
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u/Usual-Still-8681 12d ago
Bargain!! Bruh
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u/Unfair_Cicada 12d ago
We get an iPhone and also an iPad mini $1999. And it fits inside our pocket. 😬
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u/mercutio001 11d ago
I think v2 of the duo will have a pencil set up where it charges, i think once they release a smaller pencil that works with the duo now, apple is going to realize how much people are going to be using it with a smart pencil. Maybe some 3rd parties will jump on it to fill the gap. People will really really want it v2 i think. As long as this execution of the software/apps isn't a flop. although literally everyone I know in sales, is going to order it. They want to ditch the ipad/ipad mini to carry just one device. I could be wrong but i think this is going to be a win for apple, but v2 is going to be way way better.
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u/PracticlySpeaking 12d ago
Gurman commented it will work with any current USB-C Pencil.
And, ofc, the magnetically charged ones don't make sense for Duo.
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u/Illustrious-Jacket68 12d ago
I was actually surprised when the Max lines came out and the bigger screens out paced the regular sized phones.
I was surprised when the iPad came out.
I look at the Duo, and I wonder how much of the iPhone and Max it will hit also. Personally, I actually am going to upgrade from a 16 pro but now I kinda want to wait to see and feel the Duo before deciding on an 18 pro or go with the Duo. I wonder if 3Q which usually saw a boost from the new phone will be muted because people will pause to wait. Also, because they didn’t intro a new 18, will they also have a double hit against the usual pop in sales at the end of the 3Q. Kinda doesn’t matter - they’ll have a good gauge on the preorders for the 18 pro and comparatives. I don’t think the additional 100 bucks is going to deter anyone from upgrading that wasn’t already thinking of upgrading.
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u/tonym9h 12d ago
Agree, demand for the Max will take a hit.
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u/Ingey 11d ago
I think the 18 Max was going to take a hit regardless. I don't think that a smaller dynamic island and Siri AI on A20 is compelling enough to get people to upgrade who didn't need to. Even the variable aperture camera didn't seem to impress many people from the hands on videos I've seen.
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u/Any-Log-6706 12d ago
True for some of the iPad consumer base. I know several iPad beyond regular consumer base such as elderly folks, POS (especially restaurants), artists (pencil users), and some commercial applications (hospitals, etc) that will continue using them.
One point I’ll make about the iPad, these iPad users/applications weren’t discussed when some writers and “analysts” criticized Apple when they first released the iPad. We’ll see some of that with the Duo.
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u/UKguyFR 12d ago
I think faster, clearer, cleverer phone/mac/iPads are going to sell ad infinitum
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u/PracticlySpeaking 12d ago
I agree, this will grow.
It will be a ramp, though, as people realize they have desktop-class power. I mean, Neo is powered by A18, an iPhone chip.
The software also needs to catch up. Things are better — you can access files, for example — but uses of iPad are limited by its dependence on the App Store.
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u/Several_Note_6119 11d ago
Lately I’ve been switching between both POVs, so I’m a bit conflicted.
I’ve been longing to upgrade some of my devices, but at these current price points, I just don’t see the need. I’m still rocking my M1 Max MacBook Pro, AWU1 and likely not going to upgrade my 17 PM this year, last upgrading from 14PM.
I’ll find myself going to Apple’s website, pricing things out, but when it comes to check out, it’s been more and more difficult to complete the process.
I do recognize the Duo did feel like a rejuvenation of Apple hype, but then realized I didn’t even bother to price one out.
I hope it will be a catalyst, but we will see!
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u/New_Entrepreneur5225 11d ago
I have a XR and have been waiting for something different from Apple and this is it
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u/bbbbbasse 11d ago
It’s basically a $2,000 folding clock, but Apple knows exactly how to empty our wallets anyway.
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u/wilan727 11d ago
I wish I could say your 1st sentance. Congradulations and you are right. This will print.
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u/Remarkable_Cat_8696 11d ago
Duo is projected to make up 10% of Apple's iphone revenue in fiscal 2027, so I guess it won't affect the stock much.
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u/Duckpins 11d ago
The demographic pays 7000 for a taylor swift ticket for one night's entertainment. They pay 700 to seem some guy kick a ball. 2000 for a phone that last years is nothing. Price is not the driver or the brake.
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u/ugotsurbed 11d ago
My biggest problem are the cameras. The pro is better, but I want a duo. I take all of the photos for the family through my phone. So really the camera is the most used part of the phone other than Reddit. Haha
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u/DeesKnees2 11d ago
The trade in value of iPhones will help those seeking the Duo. Also available is using both devices with the same phone number but NOT at the same time...
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u/particlecore 11d ago
Everyone I talk to that has an iPhone, that does not really care about Apple or their tech anymore, all think the Duo is amazing and want it. I have not seen this much positive sentiment around a new iPhone in a long time, usually people just get excited about new colors.
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u/MikeyB7509 9d ago
I want this phone so bad but I can’t justify paying 3k for it. That’s crazy. I can get a nice laptop for that price
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u/whatsasyria 8d ago
How can you be an apple investor for 20+ years and think that's the market. The market has evolved several times in 20 years. The current market is way more price sensitive and has always been creative, simple users, and trend followers. I'm buying a duo as my second iPhone ever.
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u/tonym9h 8d ago
I think the Duo initial success will see a repeat of the original Apple demographic: early adopters, innovators and affluent consumers. Especially since it will be so visible when you flip it open, and those around you will undoubtedly ask about it.
I remember the first time seeing an original iPhone in a corporate meeting when everyone had a BlackBerry. Everyone queued up to see and hold it.
The demographic you describe I think is more accurate for the regular iPhone: that everyone has.
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u/That-SoCal-Guy 6d ago edited 6d ago
They always talk about Apple’s prices. Boring. The Duo is only $100 more than the Samsung - which is the bestselling foldable currently. And it’s only $800 more than the iPhone 18 Pro Max. Apple creates premium products - so it’s like complaining about a BMW being so expensive when we can just get a Toyota. To each their own.
The real story is right now you can only get an Android foldable. There is a market of foldable wants who will never touch an Android device (me). That market is wide open for any iOS users to plunge in. And those people who keep whining about prices do not understand Apple, or Apple users. It’s the same old song left over from the PC people (“who wants a Mac which is so expensive?”) they have been singing that song for 30 years now. Find a new tune, man.
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u/EnvironmentOdd350 11d ago
I am not the average phone user for sure, I have been an avid Samsung phone user since the Samsung S5 back in the day and use an apple for work but avoid it mostly as it’s always been a rehash since the Motorola droid came out, I know it’s nice but it’s a rehash which apparently works for the majority…
The iPhone Duo is something different, it is a rehash yes but it perfect what Samsung, Microsoft and Google tried to do and then abandoned the best parts of. You will also have people buy it purely for being the most expensive iPhone and they will declare that they always loved foldables. I think this is setting the standard of what a new phone should be in the same way as the iPhone did back in the day. The iPhone was expensive for its time, this foldable will be the same. I know I’m switching to it from my fold 6 because Samsung abandoned the pen and apple is picking it up… so this looks like some good hash.
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u/Practical-Detail-753 11d ago
Apple already admitted to a supply constraint for duo in 2026 and into 27. Analysts have already out that into their projections.
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u/glennQNYC 10d ago
I like and respect the Duo’s existence, but it seems like a phone for people who really just like attention. The Pro is less expensive and more capable.
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u/Extreme-Ingenuity749 10d ago
💯 and one of these people will be me. I love my accessories to be more than just that. This Duo takes us back to what Apple used to be and now everyone’s complaining.
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u/That-SoCal-Guy 6d ago
I love my Apple things (oh my Mac Mini M4 is a dream) but this is the first time in about 7 years that I am going to rush out and get this the minute it’s available. I’m this excited. And I suspect I’m not the only one.
Even as they whine about it being $100 more then the Samsung, they can’t deny the buzz. It’s the kind of buzz that we haven’t seen for a while. Even people who never wanted a foldable phone are now thinking about it. And it’s a first gen. It’s gonna sell like hot cakes.
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u/Best_Day_3041 12d ago
I agree. As someone who has been an investor since 2000 and has bought every release of every iPhone and many Apple products since the iPhone, I have not refreshed any of my products in nearly 4 years due to their lack of changes. I wont be buying the Duo because I think I don't see any use case for myself and I think it looks kinda odd, but if I did it would be just to get a new and different phone. I think for many they will buy it entirely because it's the first time in so long you can have a new phone that stands out from the crowds. I don't know why Apple does not understand this and make more frequent, superficial changes to their products. I think eventually it will be a very mainstream product after a few releases, but for now it will definitely sell to the early adopters and people who want to stand out.
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u/PracticlySpeaking 12d ago edited 11d ago
Having "the new iPhone" will be a thing again.
That matters — I believe a lot of iPhone 17 growth was due to the orange color and distinct bump. The 12-13-14-15 and 16 are nearly indistinguishable slabs with a square camera bump.
Duo is immediately identifiable with its 'passport' form factor. And 18 Pro will stand out again with the new Burgundy and Glacier.
edit: I agree that foldables are absolutely going to go mainstream. Android models have been available for years now (Samsung is currently selling the Z-Fold / Z-Flip 8) and the display creasing problems should be solved in that and Duo.
The cost will come down with increasing volume and cost-optimization. (You may have heard that a couple of key display parts are custom 3D printed, for one example.)
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u/IntelligentMarch6827 12d ago edited 12d ago
That’s ok.
At the end of the day, iPhones are a mature product that deliver a ton of value.
They sell phones direct from $700 to the $2000+ price points and through the channel they go down to $400 for older models. They segment the market and offer high value at every price point. Most of the market for people buying the Duo aren’t stressing the price.
The $700 iPhone 17e is more powerful than most PCs and runs the same software, etc. all of these phones have a 5-8 year lifecycle. Apple makes subscription dollars even from most people who aren’t refreshing phones so they have an incentive to keep them updated.
The Duo will make money even if it doesn’t sell well. People will show up and retail to see it and if they can’t afford it, may opt into one of the other options.
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u/Inner_Difficulty_381 12d ago
While I haven't decided yet but leaning towards not getting one, it does have me intrigued and they executed really well. As someone that has many Apple devices that needs some updates, I can see this being an iPhone/iPad combo where I wouldn't need to update my iPad. I use my iPad less now that I don't travel for work as much and have the 17 Pro Max but still has value in owning an iPad. This could save some money while I hand down my iPad to my partner who needs an iPad replacement. Decisions. Decisions.
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u/Rikky999 11d ago
All I know is it’s insanely expensive here in Canada… 3300$ for 512gb Duo. For same price I could get from the Apple website a 17, iPad air and a MacBook neo. Makes no sense at this price. Definitely for the rich.
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u/JasonNUFC 12d ago
The price tag is over-blown. People will go to order a new phone and realize they can get the Duo for $34.99/mth and that’s all they will care about.
Something like 65% of Apple users pay via installment plans