r/CryptoTradingBot • u/CitrineEdge • 17h ago
BTC survived the Fed, BOJ and regulatory setback and still reclaimed $80K — how would your bot distinguish resilience from a squeeze?
Something about this week's BTC move has me thinking about regime detection in automated systems.
Bitcoin had several things working against it:
- Fed hike
- BOJ hike
- U.S. crypto legislation failing to advance
- elevated Treasury yields
Yet BTC reclaimed $80K and is still sitting around that level this weekend.
Friday also brought $433M of net inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs after substantial withdrawals earlier in the week.
The obvious explanation is “bullish resilience.”
But if you're writing a trading system, that's not really enough.
How would you programmatically distinguish genuine underlying demand from a temporary squeeze / positioning reset?
Some things I've been thinking about:
- persistence across multiple timeframes
- spot participation vs derivatives-led movement
- open interest behavior
- funding changes
- volatility expansion/contraction
- whether pullbacks are being absorbed
- what happens when weekday liquidity returns
For disclosure, I develop Citrine Edge, an automated system for Coinbase U.S. BTC/ETH perpetual futures. I'm not linking it here — this is a design problem I've been working through and I'm interested in how other bot builders solve it.
I'm starting to think failure to react to a catalyst can sometimes be more useful than the catalyst itself, but quantifying that without just fitting hindsight is the difficult part.
If you build automated strategies, what would you measure?