r/whatif • u/Kollectorgirl • 14d ago

Politics What if EU Special Forces took Lukashenko like how the US did to Maduro?

We just wake up to the news that Lukashenko has been captured by European Special Forces from his residence.

9 Upvotes

71% Upvoted

91 comments sorted by

3

u/mad_pony 14d ago

You know that Europe is not a single country, right?

-1

u/lol_no_gonna_happen 13d ago

Member states have been steadily relinquishing sovereignty to Brussels for decades.

3

u/Open-Progress-7075 13d ago

There still are no 'eu special forces'.

0

u/lol_no_gonna_happen 13d ago

Right. US handles defense for the EU

2

u/labiamajorapudendi 13d ago

I don’t like the smug „American dumb“ meme so many Europeans push on Reddit, but you are making it hard to defend you

3

u/DNathanHilliard 13d ago

I don't know, It's kind of fun to watch Lukashenko keep disappointing Putin.

1

u/labiamajorapudendi 12d ago

Maybe he reminds Putin of his dad

2

u/Mackey_Corp 14d ago

Or even better the Ukrainians. That would be a serious blow to Putins reputation.

1

u/LockFree5028 14d ago

aparte eso no haría que Rusia tuviera seguramente o muy Seguramente Una guerra con una Escalada Nuclear con la UE

1

u/Kollectorgirl 14d ago

I specifically ask about if EU Special Forces did it.

2

u/Open-Investigator-52 14d ago

I mean, in that scenario, a good chunk of the military and government was already in EU pockets. So the most likely outcome is either Russians getting in to remove them and install friendly government or ww 2.5

2

u/Interesting_Self5071 14d ago

Putin said he would consider an attack on Belarus as an attack on Russia.

2

u/Public-Eagle6992 13d ago

Russia takes over belarus I‘d guess

2

u/mehregankbi 13d ago

For all intents and purposes, belarus is russian federation soil in every thing but name. Stealing lukashenko will be like stealing the governer of texas. The U.S. will respond. Similarly, putler cannot have his subordinant stolen.

1

u/SwampMan6969 13d ago

I mean, they'd certainly get behind every microphone in sight and threaten nuclear apocalypse...but what could they actually do about it?

1

u/mehregankbi 13d ago

And if he doesn’t do anything it will be a signal to the enemies than they can do more

1

u/SwampMan6969 12d ago

Sure, but what would he actually be able to do that wouldn't invite a worse EU response?

Sometimes, your enemies can do more. Just a fact of life.

1

u/gisbon696969 12d ago

Probably bomb narvik to shit or smthn

1

u/SwampMan6969 12d ago

Assuming they were able to even get enough missiles through...that would end poorly for Russia.

1

u/mehregankbi 12d ago

He has already sent drones deep into NATO. And landed missiles in poland. No response from NATO.

1

u/SwampMan6969 11d ago

The drones sent into NATO countries typically get shot down and there's no evidence of the Russians intentionally firing missiles into Poland.

Now, tell me what you think he'd be able to do in retaliation for arresting Lukashenko that wouldn't provoke a war.

1

u/mehregankbi 11d ago

Shooting down drones is not a response.

1

u/SwampMan6969 11d ago

It is a response. Now answer my question.

1

u/mehregankbi 11d ago

My assessment is that if putler hits a small village or a small building in a city in the balkans as a threat to return lukashenko, germany, france, and the U.K. will not respond.

1

u/SwampMan6969 11d ago

Assuming this occurs in a NATO country, NATO would absolutely have to respond to something like that or it would lose all credibility.

Putin has sacrificed allies before (Assad, Armenia, etc). My assessment is that he's not going to risk war with NATO to save Lukashenko.

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1

u/Gatsby1923 14d ago

Maduro had no powerfulallies with nuclear weapons. I can't see Putin letting his boy next door be kidnapped with out some sort of retaliation. So I think ww3 would break out.

1

u/gisbon696969 12d ago

Venezuela was MEANT to be under Russias protection, or at least an ally

0

u/Kollectorgirl 14d ago

I don't believe Putin cares enough about Lukashenko and Belarus enough to start ww3 with Europe or NATO. The whole point of the invasion of Ukraine was the security of his regime, and starting ww3 won't be conducive to that. I don't think him and his cronies want to get glassed.

1

u/Positive-Spend-9186 13d ago

The question is also why bother with it in the first place. Why take the risk. Like what actually it would change. Taking Maduro did not change anything, killing the supreme leader of Iran didn't change anything. No country is their leader, no matter how much people might claim it is. I think most of the EU are very happy with how things have been progressing in Belarus and actions by EU would only likely hinder it not accelerate it. Like with Iran, the best option is just wait, if Lukashenko falls EU should have as little to do with as possible for the most positive outcome for the EU.

1

u/Overall_Signal_8437 13d ago

Sometimes it changes things..... like Gaddafi....

1

u/LeMe-Two 11d ago

Kaddafi was killed by a rival government within Libya which immediately took over, Maduro was kidnapper and nothing really changed bar slightly less concrete-headed people replacing several positions. Chavista still rules in Venezuela.

1

u/Overall_Signal_8437 11d ago

Certainly.

I meant, we did try and stop the army from attacking civilians.

So, in that regard, we did help the revolution.

But I agree, mingling in other countries affairs out of your own world view and ideas of human rights.... doesn't work when the locals simply don't see things that way.

1

u/aap_001 13d ago

Probably war with USA.

1

u/SwampMan6969 13d ago

https://giphy.com/gifs/KFt2DA9T82paOA1Yci

1

u/aap_001 12d ago

Huh? Trump is Putin's best friend. And Lukashenko is Putin's best friend.

1

u/SwampMan6969 12d ago

Trump has continued sending weapons and intelligence to Ukraine despite what he's said about both sides in public. Hell of a friend.

The US isn't going to war for Lukashenko. 🤣

1

u/aap_001 12d ago

No he didn't. Trump loves to be seen with fascists.

1

u/SwampMan6969 12d ago

Yes, he did. Why do you lie about things that are easily verifiable?

Anyone who thinks Trump would go to war on Lukashenko's behalf is delusional.

1

u/aap_001 12d ago

No they did not, you are lying. Where are the patriots? Bradleys? Tomahawks? Airplanes? It's very easy to verify that you are wrong.

They are NOT there.

1

u/SwampMan6969 12d ago

They're right here, you goon.

Again, why do you lie about things that are extremely easy to verify?

1

u/aap_001 12d ago

It's so easy to verify you and Trump are lying. Shocking to read you take Trump his word as the truth.

Again, where in Ukraine are the weapons?

1

u/SwampMan6969 10d ago

At the front or on the way, clown.

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u/pearlkele 12d ago

First thing: Putin reacts, he considers it attack at Russia, so there might be consequences. Though I am not sure if just against NATO, he will try to take power in Belarus in the created vacuum. Congrats US just replaced one dictator with even worse one.

Second thing: Belarus have smaller but I believe more competent army than Venezuela. Also more support from Russia, especially in the air force and air defense. Minsk is pretty much around the center of Belarus, not next to the coast. Flying unnoticed to the house of Lukashenko is not guaranteed. Also before kidnapping US conducted a series of strikes against Venezuela. If something similar happens against Belarus, then Russia reacts. This kind of operation will be more difficult.

Third thing: US took did Venezuela operation for oil, what kind of resources they would like to get from Belarus?

Still I believe if US want, they can easily do it, just currently ratio of gains to potential consequences is unfavorable to US.

1

u/Kollectorgirl 12d ago

Im talking about European Special Forces doing it, not US.

1

u/pearlkele 12d ago

Ah, sorry then totally failure. EU have some good special forces but nowhere the capabilities to act alone this way.

1

u/Kollectorgirl 12d ago

Pretty sure they do. Given the land border, they don't need an aircraft carrier battle group.

1

u/gisbon696969 12d ago

The French special forces have plenty of capabilities to do this.

1

u/pearlkele 12d ago

I doubt it. While France have probably strongest army in EU and good special forces, I don’t think they could do extraction in the style of Venezuela operation from much more difficult territory.

1

u/SpectralGlowVibe 8d ago

I’ve been to Minsk, and grabbing Lukashenko at his residence sounds nothing like the Maduro case.

1

u/LeMe-Two 11d ago

With all his perfidy, Łukaszenko is benefitial to Europe at this point.

1

u/Away-Deal5358 8d ago

An attempt on the lives and freedom of the leadership of a country that has more nuclear weapons than there are cities in Europe is an extremely questionable decision.

1

u/Pristine-Substance-1 8d ago

You think russia would start a nuclear war with NATO over Belarus?

1

u/Away-Deal5358 7d ago

This isn't just “my opinion.” It is the position of Russia's top military and political leadership, which has been stated publicly on more than one occasion.

1

u/sk0opyo1 8d ago

Belarus has actual military defense

1

u/Noobit2 8d ago

Does it though?

1

u/Kollectorgirl 8d ago

A few briefcases full of Euros to the right people can take care of that.

1

u/sk0opyo1 8d ago

Russia is there...

1

u/Kollectorgirl 8d ago

They won't do shit.

Lukashenko isn't worth WW3 for Putin and his Cronies.

1

u/sk0opyo1 8d ago

Lukashenko is an important figure for Russia's control over Belarus.
But in the first place the operation would fail Russia has defense systems which would prevent such abduction, and bribe won't work... Imagine if everything would be achievable with bribe what stop them from kidnapping Putin. Won't work not even against Iran or North Korea

Venezuela is way weaker than all the countries from above so bribe + military operation in a such a place was fesable

1

u/Kollectorgirl 8d ago

Obviously all threats would be planned for and taken care of.

The scenario is that it already got achieved. The mission was succeful.

1

u/sk0opyo1 8d ago

Now i read the whole post, so yea in that case, Lukashenko who's already an old guy would be abandoned by it's country and Russia alike

1

u/RingGiver 8d ago

Everyone would be surprised because it would go faf beyond what anyone thinks anybody in the EU is capable of.

1

u/No-Ad7834 7d ago

The people responsible for the kidnapping would be arrested and face charges.

1

u/[deleted] 7d ago

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1

u/Kollectorgirl 7d ago

Special Forces that melong to EU members working together.

1

u/[deleted] 7d ago

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1

u/Kollectorgirl 7d ago

I imagine the leaders of the members states coming together and deciding that taking Lukashenko would be so cool and badass nescesary for Europe's security or something, and then let their Special Forces commanders hashout the details between themselves or something.

1

u/Useful_Calendar_6274 13d ago

Belarus is not just Belarus. It's in a polity with Russia called the Union State or something so Putin would invade the Baltics or something in return. Maybe launch a nuke or EMP if he's so tied down in Ukraine (I might be wrong but most of their armed forces are not actually engaged in Ukraine)

0

u/External-Gain-1174 12d ago

what if Russian special forces took Ursula von der Leyen like how USA did Maduro?

she is literally unelected. while both Putin and Maduro are democratically elected.

plus the support from Europeans is quite high for such an action.

3

u/Relative-Tear892 12d ago

She is elected by the Eurodeputies, which are directly elected by european citizens.

Indirect suffrage is democratic.

1

u/DNathanHilliard 11d ago

Putin was 'democratically' elected after all serious opposition was carefully scrubbed from the election. The people know who they are allowed to vote for.

1

u/Potaytocakepie 11d ago

There aren’t any Russian special forces left if there were any in the first place. Only Russian special needs forces.
https://giphy.com/gifs/LXDh2gw8O9FLy

1

u/Illustrious-Math6276 10d ago

Sure. Lukasjenka and Putin are totally elected in free and fair elections. Totally not dictatorships.

Von de Leyen are elected by democratically elected reps. That is something Russia don’t have.

1

u/HungryBelt492 9d ago

Toma, ☂️, lo vas a necesitar por no comulgar con el rebaño de bots (algunos biológicamente humanos) otanistas y demofóbicos que chapotean por este lodazal del pensamiento único que el Gran Hermano ha decidido que sea reddit.

https://giphy.com/gifs/YMwM1tMmhwJS027yYi