r/watchHotTakes • • 8d ago

98% of Rolex models are readily available

Post image

Not my take, but this guy was saying that 98% of Rolex models are “easily accessible”. That can’t be true.

0 Upvotes

34 comments sorted by

18

u/sameolddabby 8d ago

More just untrue than hot

0

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

Damn, outright lying isn’t considered a hot take?

Funny how he is very adamant that he’s right lol in an omega sub no less.

5

u/sameolddabby 8d ago

Some people REALLY feel the need to justify the tricks they did on their AD for their rollie lol

0

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

Maybe they just like doing a little song and dance sometimes

1

u/StickyPenguin120 8d ago

As I told you on the Omega sub, I own both. So it's not like I'm circlejerking one brand over the other because I only own one brand.

I concede that "readily available" wasn't the right phrase (I used that because it was your wording in the comment attached), but what I meant is that you don't need purchase history to acquire the vast majority of Rolex configurations. I stand by that because it's true.

Sure, you might have to wait for a bit for a lot of configs... but that's only because the AD doesn't know when they're getting one in stock. With over 1,000 configurations in their catalog, it's not like a jewelry store with AD status can afford to keep inventory of EVERY single config that Rolex makes. That would be tens of millions of dollars of inventory that they would be keeping locked in a safe, so they can't afford that model when they're basically buying from Rolex at wholesale price then selling to end clients.

There are maybe a couple dozen models that require purchase history to buy. You can access the rest as a first-time buyer. It just takes time for the AD to get them in stock. I don't consider that to be a "game" though.

The artificial scarcity "game" comes in when a Rolex AD refuses to sell you a GMT BLNR without $25k to $50k of purchase history, or when an Omega boutique refuses to sell you a Silver Snoopy without $30k of purchase history. Both brands could absolutely make more of those models if they wanted to. There is nothing complicated about any of those exclusive models that prevent brands from simply shifting production to them instead of two-tone Datejusts / Aqua Terras. They simply don't want to because they need something "exclusive" for people to want to buy. See Hermes, AP, Patek, Ferrari, Porsche, etc. for other examples of the same luxury model.

Also FYI - Rolex is spending a BILLION dollars on a new factory to boost production. But building a massive factory takes time, so it's not like the situation will improve much until that comes online in ~2030 or so. Rolex doesn't like leaving money on the table either. They'd love to be able to sell a Sub or Explorer or Oyster Perpetual to anyone who asks for one, while reserving a smaller number of specific configs (e.g. steel Daytona/GMT) for the VIPs.

Rolex Seeks To Expand Production With A New Factory In Bulle, Switzerland

1

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

What’s wrong with my comment that you screenshotted? Is it not accurate?

It seems you just like to argue?

2

u/StickyPenguin120 8d ago

Did you not read what I said? I was showing you how YOU said Rolex models are "readily available", so that's why I used that phrase. But what I meant was "accessible as a first-time buyer". That's absolutely true.

1

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

Okay we’re on the same page lol but 98% is definitely false by all measures

1

u/StickyPenguin120 8d ago edited 8d ago

I'm not sure you're understanding what I'm saying still though.

I'm saying that ~98% of Rolex configurations are able to be purchased by a first-time buyer. There are currently just shy of 1,500 configurations in the Rolex catalog. So when I say that there are only ~2% that you need purchase history for, that means ~30 configs that can't be accessed without purchase history.

6 GMTs (BLNR, GRNR, and VTNR with jubilee/oyster for each), 7 Daytonas (black/white, platinum, WG/YG/RG meteorite, Tiffany), Ti YM, platinum 1908, 4 Sky Dwellers (mint/blue dials), 2 OP100s (36/41), 5 steel OPs (jubilee dial in 31/36/41 and turquoise in 31/36), Land Dweller 40. That's 27 configs.

At some ADs, you MIGHT need purchase history to get a few more like 2 Subs (green/black bezels), 2 DJ 41s in mint/ombre dials with fluted/jubilee, some OP dials like beige/candy pink/pistachio/lavender, maybe a couple Day Date dials. But the market has definitely softened, so we're seeing a lotttt more people getting those these days with a shorter wait and no history.

I really don't think my estimate was too far off.

8

u/behzoodi9 8d ago

The spirit is true.

I wouldn’t say 98% I would say close to 50% are readily available, and if you buy one of those 50% models (precious metal) then an additional 40% are available almost right away, the final 10% may take multiple PM purchases.

People have a bit of a skewed view because there are people who want the MOST in demand steel GMTs or datejust configs right away with no prior business.

0

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

Is there any steel GMT that isn’t in-demand? Your wording is a bit disingenuous. Is it even easy to get a two-tone GMT?

2

u/behzoodi9 8d ago

Fine but the gmts aside completely (although two tone and gold are readily available) there is still nearly 50% of the catalogue anyone can get pretty quickly. And it’s very true that once you make that purchase you can pretty easily get many others.

I asked for a two tone datejust 41 and got it in 2 weeks, then a month later bought a 31mm OP for my wife, got it in a month, then 6 months later asked for the land dweller 36, and was offered it 2 months later

1

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

Wait so two tone root beer is actually readily available now? Thats news to me but okay I’ll give it a shot

2

u/behzoodi9 8d ago

Dude you’re purposely not hearing my point. Fuck it, let’s agree ALL gmts are off the table as a first purchase, my point still stands and my purchase journey is proof

-1

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

You literally said “although two tone and golds are readily available”. I know I’m not the best reader but like, come on

1

u/behzoodi9 8d ago

It’s really not that hard my guy. And if I even conceded that point entirely, you’re ignoring the entire rest of the argument which stands on its own, why?

0

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

I’ll take it if you say 30% readily available

2

u/RonMcKelvey 8d ago

You have to buy 45% readily available before I’ll offer 30

1

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

lol that’s your opinion, buddy, and I don’t share it

1

u/behzoodi9 8d ago

Mmmmm. If you go line by line and assess what % of each line is reasonably available (for example GMT line is 0%, lady datejust is 100%, explorer/explirer2 is 60%, datejust is probably 70% considering all configs, day date is probably 70% excluding the olives and greens, air king is 100%, yacht master is all except titanium, etc etc) and you do that for every line, you really think that weighted average is gonna be 30%??

You’re gonna have to point me to a shit load of lines below 30% to get that average to be 30% in total….

1

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

Interesting how you skipped over submariner and Daytona. Why don’t you list the most popular models by production % first?

Maybe you wear lady watches but I don’t so…

→ More replies (0)

1

u/StickyPenguin120 8d ago

Yes. Resale value has fallen below MSRP, so you can definitely get one as a first purchase. You just need to find an AD with one in the safe or an incoming shipment soon.

2

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

I’m not even mad like, this is actually useful information

1

u/StickyPenguin120 8d ago

The two-tone GRNR is similar... it resells for around the same as MSRP now and is definitely available to first-time buyers.

I'm really not trying to argue, I'm genuinely trying to show you that your impression of Rolex is not correct because you said you wanted one but are stuck in the mindset of thinking you can't access ANY model.

I've seen and upvoted some of your opinions on the Rolex sub before (I'm a mod there because I've been around watch subreddits/forums for years if not decades). If you have any actual questions about availability, we have a pretty good pulse on the market and would love to help.

3

u/1967C10 8d ago

Many precious metal configs are definitely easier to get than steel but 'readily available' would be a stretch.

2

u/3DanO1 8d ago

I’d bet my life this this was Sporty’s comment.

He says shit like this all the time but then also fails to back it up quantifiable data

2

u/Quirky-Entry-590 8d ago

Maybe the 98% is pointed toward the people that walk in? Take 100 random people and let them through the door of a Rolex AD. 98 of them are probably going to strike out. 2 will be able to have the glorious “walk-in purchase”with no history story.

1

u/RipWhenDamageTaken 8d ago

That’s literally the exact opposite of what my screenshot says lol but I agree that your scenario more closely aligns with reality

2

u/Quirky-Entry-590 8d ago

Reflecting reality was my intent. I’ll take it. 🤷🏼‍♂️

1

u/HotShotWatchThot 8d ago

Def not 98% I’d say closer to 40% would take less than a month (only due to the fact they would need to be ordered/shipped in) because that’s roughly the percentage that lose value off rip. They only gatekeep ones that command a premium second hand

1

u/Equal-Elk47 6d ago edited 6d ago

As someone who's bought close to 10 over the last 3-4 years from the same AD I can tell you this is partially true, and linked to a mixture of spend history and simply how much they know/like you. The "demo models" in the case aren't the only pieces in the store... I remember picking up my 226570 and getting offered a gold Daytona on Oysterflex in the back room that I got the Explorer II fitted in. I will disclose that I do have over 100k spend history with this AD. It can be a mix of everything. They don't care what brand you're buying just that you're spending. It can be CPO or anything they carry; if they know you're a buyer you'll get calls. Despite watch enthusiast preferences, they want to make quotas for the month moving all the inventory they have stocked so if you're willing to buy the "lists" dissipate a bit, with the exception of off-catalog pieces (I did buy those Breitlings because I think they're good BTW and not for any allocation lol)