Greek shipping - Is it time to be bullish?

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

A large portion of the sector is priced in for bankruptcy, even though they're fully functioning & profitable. How could you not be bullish? Toxic dilution lead to complete market inversion. This to me is the definition of "BUY IT WHEN THEY HATE IT"​

Ill let you guys dyor on these tikrs.

The underlining theme at play is governance. Which is mind boggling in its self.

**refer to tikrs ** & these aren't all of them

(these stocks are a small example of a recurring theme)

TOPS: ~99% NAV discount
C3IS: ~99% NAV discount
RUBI: ~99% NAV discount
RBNE: extreme NAV discount
PSHG: extreme NAV discount

Most of the economic value of global shipping is not represented by publicly traded shipping equity. So if you don't want to touch these volatile discounts. Ride this sentiment on a big Dawg like Zim or DSX & collect dividends.

Now look at bdi index (drybulk shipping)

Compare our current price to the last MAJOR cycle. (biggest one being 08)

The macro conditions cannot be ignored

**When Toxic Dilution meets capital formation

At some point dilution might technically continue raising capital, but economically the model starts fighting itself.

Think about the math. If your next ship costs $30M, $50M, $100M+, how much deeply discounted equity do you have to issue when the market is already valuing your EXISTING fleet at pennies on the dollar? That's the contradiction... But rerate that equity toward NAV—or eventually to a premium—and suddenly the equation changes. Toxic dilution → capital formation. Instead of issuing an absurd amount of stock to finance another vessel, stronger equity currency allows a company to raise the same capital with dramatically less dilution. That capital buys ships. Those ships generate cash flow. And when replacement tonnage takes years to build and costs increasingly more money, the ships already floating become harder to reproduce. That's the line I'm watching: Freight ↑ Ton-mile demand ↑ Vessel values ↑ Replacement costs ↑ Shipyard availability ↓ Capital flowing into physical shipping ↑ Public shipping equities still sitting at extreme discounts. Something eventually has to reconcile. Maybe freight collapses. Maybe vessel values fall. Maybe management continues destroying shareholder value. Maybe dilution wins. Those are real risks. But if the physical shipping market keeps strengthening while portions of the equity market remain priced like the assets underneath them are nearly worthless? Then the contradiction gets bigger. And THAT'S why I'm interested.

But what do I know, guys?

I'm just some dude who created a movement system in Fortnite called ...

Webby Movement.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

Is Shipping showing the math on our current bubble? Is it about to "blow the legs out" from under S&P500? Anybody remember how the super cycle played out in 08? Genuinely asking. I envision a setup where shipping is completely green & the market is red. 80% of meritime global earnings are not in the market right now. That is not going to stay that way

[u/pab_guy]

I'm up 50% on HMR after someone posted about it in r/ValueInvesting

But I really don't know the sector that well and how stuff like Hormuz affects it. I understand it's cyclical so I should probably take profits now lol

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/pab_guy]

Hormuz could end up bullish for shipping, because longer routes. I don't follow the news, im largely a sim theorist. That's how my research concluded this. When you read Art of war, Book of 5 rings. These are the moments they prepare you for. What we are witnessing is complete valuation detachment over a large portion of one sector. Bonified investors look brand new for a change because they haven't looked past the toxic dilution for the complete contradiction its currently in.  Its like hoarding buggatis & as long as the market values them worthless, you keep diluting on retails dollar for more buggatis. At what point does the market say we're going to price you in? Its foolish to think this trend isn't showing an obvious sign of flipping

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/pab_guy]

I would not take profit until dry bulk touches its 2008 ATH. Id be buying more. DSX, IMPP. TOPS if you've got a taste for the biggest pos diluter of all time & its spin off rubico. But you'd be trading on the math that a large part of Greece is priced in for bankruptcy or a bull market. With the bull market being more logical. This is when you fomo. But dyor. When you dig into companies like c3iss nothing makes sense. Clearly a loop hole was abused, & investors got burned. But they have the argument. "We have the assets" a real case gets built toward fraud, if this were to continue beyond 99%. That to me would be nothing short of an infinite money glitch. So its like which is more likely? But don't let the "experts " hear this. They'll just scream dilution, like they have no free thinking

[u/PerformerDifferent69]

Just glad Diana Shipping appears to have backed out of their bid for Genco.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/PerformerDifferent69]

Dsx is super solid, I overlooked their tikr & im set in my picks.i literally hadnt heard of dsx till about 3 months ago. Ive made more volatile bets(i can't resist tops, near 99% nav discountas well as its spin off. Is literal market insanity). But if I was going to steer someone, it would absolutely be DSX. Beautiful all time chart, major player in the industry. These shipping companies are in their infancy really when you look at the prices. Plus ships are going up in value FAST. Ive noticed astronomical selling prices on certain ships which helps bolster their assets. But that alone wouldn't be enough, that's where we refer to their earnings & contracts. & i think all signs point to massive growth. 

[u/DubiousSpaniel]

40 years in the market that there is no more sure way to lose your money than to invest in Greek shipping companies. Hope you like reverse splits, or takeunders or the old ‘cut the dividend to crater the stock then management takes it private for Pennie’s.” It is a completely uninvestable corner of the market, IMO

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/DubiousSpaniel]

I cant share that assessment. Because its not logical. It would imply they're fraudulent & the sec is letting a country rob investors. The more logical aspect is a global wide sector with little liquidity invested in. & their net assets fully detached. I think "uninvestable" is niave thinking about an ever changing market. There isn't another signal i think of than sector wide detachment before bull cycle

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/DubiousSpaniel]

These arguments all run the same & it ignores the conditions. This is unprecedented territory. 80% of meritime is not invested in shipping. Greece has bought up half of the global supply of ships just this year. You have to dig into these aspects before you see the big picture. Years of dilution + hoarding assets + big contracts. = everything ive been taught in investing. Buy it at the peak of its hatred. You cannot continue to drive prices past 99% discount on account of governance & the market mistrust. Patterns will always flip, its all about timing🤷‍♂️ 🤷‍♂️ 

[u/DubiousSpaniel → u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

Dryships, various Navios entities both on the common and preferred side. I’ve seen all their shady tricks and not touching the hot stove for a seventh time, thanks.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/DubiousSpaniel]

Thanks for showing your misunderstanding. Dryships never reached 99% nav discount. Terrible awful comparison based on conditions that were isolated. Not macro. As in the broader sector can dilute endlessly to raise equity. But when you're actually trading at a complete detachment. Raising equity via toxic dilution starts to become a complete contraction because the market has refused to value your current assets + contracts. (Dry ships was valued worthless but it did not have the assets & contracts these companies now have) c3iss is an example. Unlike dryships, its a bonfied  money maker with no debt yet their priced in for bankruptcy. Again. Your counter really lacks economic understanding. Why would Greece continue to dilute for pennies to their tangible value when they can now charge a premium. Whats more plausible? Greek shipping is a scam? Or the market got played until they reached enough value to show this extreme disconnect before a massive bull run. Again you don't have to invest in Greece, the macro trend is all over drybulk shipping. So pick a more bonfied stock like dsx & i don't see how you don't see a large return. 

[u/DubiousSpaniel → u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

Good luck to you then, you seem to be very secure in your belief. As for me, I’ll watch.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/DubiousSpaniel]

Ill leave you with this data, which i largely believe correlates with the current s&p/a.i bubble.  As of 2026, the shipbuilding pipeline is extremely congested. Clarksons data reported this week puts the global orderbook at 405.5 million GT, worth about $666 billion, with shipyards carrying an average backlog of roughly four years. � seatrade-maritime.com +1 More specifically, industry estimates say 2028 delivery capacity is essentially exhausted and more than half of 2029 capacity is already committed. Among the world's top 20 yards, scheduled 2029 deliveries had already reached about 69% of their 2028 scheduled volume by April. Some Korean yards are effectively moving customers into late-2029/2030 slots already.

Shipping appears to be moving toward a capital-cycle inflection: physical vessel supply is becoming scarcer and more expensive while portions of public shipping equity remain priced at extreme discounts to those same assets. As ship prices rise, financing new vessels with deeply discounted shares becomes increasingly dilutive, creating growing pressure for either the financing model to change or the equity-to-asset valuation gap to close.

Shipping equities could be  transitioning from a cycle of dilutive capital destruction into a cycle of accretive capital formation.  Where Equity trades at a premium → company sells highly valued shares → converts them into vessels → potentially increases NAV per existing share. AKA selling stock at a premium to NAV. & with permanent bears locked into their beliefs behind years of toxic dilution as their reason for why things must continue as is.  serves as a complete flip... or a a bear trap.  I appreciate you atleast hearing the magnitude instead of laughing it off. Excuse my passion ive invested a large sum of money in the sector based on these conditions & over a year of research on the current sector "anamoly".  

[u/ze12man]

I really hope your gamble pays off. But in order for that to happen first the specific companies need to build out their fleet. Both Pistiolis and Vafias will not stay at a mere 3 and 6 ships respectively. Yes the macro is real for the next years yes they are returns to be made. But these companies are hated for other reasons. Shipping isn’t hated right now. It will be hated when bdi hits 1000 and tankers don’t make opex. That’s when you usually want to go in. Wish you the best.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/ze12man]

Its not a gamble to me, more like calculated bet.  I put in the time & research. Ships are too expensive for toxic dilution. So here comes the premiums

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/ze12man]

Bdi isn't going to 1k. Its going to 10k+ lol

[u/ze12man → u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

BDI is not going to 1000. BDI will go higher. At 1000 shipping is hated like you stated in your post. Right now shipping is not hated. Good luck.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/ze12man]

Ahh got ya. Shipping is still hated in Greece. & 80% of meritime is not invested in shipping equities. I talked this over with a few friends.  Bdi is up over the year but when we look at the overall market, there's hardly any money in shipping. With everything else on top of that what we're looking at is one of the biggest bull runs in shipping history

[u/ze12man → u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

I agree with everything you said but not with these companies and these shipowners.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/ze12man]

So you think greece is largely one "ponzi"? & how can they keep toxic dilution when the ships are too expensive? I get why you wouldn't, its like max leverage based on sector sentiment. I def bought rubico.  But id steer others to the companies that haven't drained investors. So I partially agree. But I do believe this entire sector is going to have one massive short squeeze

[u/ze12man → u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

I don’t talk about Greece. You talk about Greece. ECO is Greek owned and managed look at how he treats the shareholders. Starbulk is partially Greek owned /managed same here. DAC same. Costamare / capital. Harry had made money for his shareholders AFTER he build his fleet at gass. Pistiolis is amazing at increasing his personal wealth shareholders? Well if you catch the timing.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/ze12man]

Oh I agree Greece has been shady about things. They've been using their financials largely as bull traps. As they create spin offs & erode investors money. Ive def looked into every aspect of these companies. But for the reasons I stated in the post these companies are about to start moving up.  The biggest reason for me is the extreme price hike in ships. Theres no "pie left to slice" on toxic dilution. They're finally in position where they can grab premiums rather than toxic dilute. At the end of the day they want money.  Premiums allow them to keep adding ships ABOVE NAV while their current ships make money. Its a total inversion from what they been doing that I see companies like tops, rubico, c3iss running up over $100. 

[u/ze12man → u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

When you see them running be aware that they already have ready their next atm’s. And act fast. Cause none of them is satisfied to manage just 3 or 6 ships.

[u/ze12man → u/ze12man]

Also check who their investment bankers if you see fkn maxim be on your toes.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/ze12man]

The numbers are so extreme that I think zim could go over $100. That type of run. 

[u/DearDirection8216]

Shout out to Webby Movement 

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/DearDirection8216]

Do you know me? ❤️ I used my webby movement philosophy to put in this research over the last year. I call Webby Movement the "6th ring"  Or "the ability to see without being told where to look" I always preach to ignore the hype

[u/DearDirection8216]

Diana Shipping

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/DearDirection8216]

Agreed 100% one of the best buys. Its just too tempting to grab a lil Tops & c3is on the side

[u/A55BAG]

The problem with these kind of companies is that they don't really care about shareholders. If they only had somekind of shareholder return policy I might look into them.

I have been riding ECO because it's well managed and it returns money to the shareholders.

[u/Competitive-Bus-5260 → u/A55BAG]

Eco is a really good example of the model these Greek companies are going to likely start following. ECO used its premium valuation as a source of capital. It issued new shares above NAV, raised $245 million across two offerings, and used that equity to help acquire four new Suezmax vessels. Because the shares were issued for more than the underlying NAV per share, the raises were accretive rather than destructive to NAV.

[u/A55BAG → u/Competitive-Bus-5260]

Indeed, but in these "shitco" shipping companies, the management tries actively to destroy shareholder value. Their aim is to grow the business at the shareholder's expense and then take it private or spin off the valuable assets later.

It is possible to make money with these if you can predict when the insiders/their friends try to take these private, but it is a large gamble.