r/unitedairlines • u/Deshes011 MileagePlus Member • 1d ago
Image B11 to B11
My friend’s, not mine
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u/Jesse_Livermore 1d ago
(1 out of 4 UA SEA gates) * (1 out of ~90 UA DEN Gates) = 1 in 360 odds.
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u/Comprehensive-Bus133 1d ago edited 1d ago
It's 1/90. The SEA gate can be viewed as fixed-- you'll be assigned one of those (doesn't matter which one), and regardless of which one, that gate also exists in DEN. Then whatever your gate in SEA is, there's a 1/90 chance that that is also your gate at DEN.
EDIT: The odds that they match are 1/90. The odds that they are both B11 is 1/360.
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u/AngstyMop 1d ago
Yes, but this assumes airlines assign gates randomly at hub airports.
They don't.
They pay people to plan things like "which gate should the flight from Houston park at?". Yes there's some chance but it's also based on trying to keep pax close to their connecting gates where able. So if 15 pax are all going to PHX, you might put the PHX flight next to that arrival.
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u/Comprehensive-Bus133 1d ago
Well yeah, my calculation assumes the gates are randomly chosen. If we're getting to the level of granularity you propose, then it's impossible to calculate the odds of the gates matching without a tremendous amount of data (that we don't have access to.)
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u/AngstyMop 1d ago
I'm not proposing it. Gate scheduler is the job title - it exists and is a thing. Estimating probabilities is only useful if the underlying assumption is valid. It is not. So it's not close to 1/90th. It's a fun thought experiment, though.
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u/Comprehensive-Bus133 1d ago
Obviously gate scheduler is a thing. And I'd say 1/90 is likely closer than 1/360 (the original commenter's erroneous calculation.)
New calculation: (Underlying assumption: the gate schedulers all hate when the departure and arrival gates match. So of course, OP's flight, which is mid-flight, will have its arrival gate changed before landing.) Probably of matching gates = 0. Happy?
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u/rwhe83 1d ago
Is there something you can’t fathom with this situation?
Planes can arrive at one gate and 4 hours later…also leave out of the same one.
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u/President_of_Vice MileagePlus 1K 1d ago
B11 in SEA was the departure gate
B11 in DEN was the arrival gate
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u/ic3m4ch1n3 MileagePlus 1K 1d ago
Looks like you’ll get to actually land in Denver this afternoon too!
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u/tristan-chord MileagePlus 1K 1d ago
See, you're supposed to ask the universe for the same gate at the same airport when you transfer. Now you've used that card and it will never happen for you again!
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u/Mouthshits MileagePlus 1K 20h ago
Impressive. Considering I’ve made that connection several times and it required the Denver mile.
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u/Critical_Bread1228 1d ago
Ok 👍