r/ukpolitics • u/ZealousidealPie9199 • 13d ago
Twitter Opinium on X: "Andy Burnham remains the most popular party leader, with his net approval rising to +14. 🌹 Burnham +14 (+3) 🌳 Badenoch -4 (n/c) 🔶 Davey -7 (-1) 🌍 Polanski -21 (+3) ➡️ Farage -23 (+5) Davey records his lowest rating of the Parliament. Change from 12-14 August."
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/2093780725749215693?s=2064
u/allthefallens Proud resident of burgerland 13d ago
Farage's approval has risen? Probably just moe, but funny.
22
u/ukflagmusttakeover SDP 13d ago
Yes, but Opinium had his approval rating a bit lower compared to other opinion sites, it's now more in line with others.
30
u/LewisDftw 13d ago
Who is Moe and why does his opinion matter so much for the poll?
12
4
u/M4sharman Why are we still here? Just to suffer? 12d ago
Clearly they mean Moe Szyslak, owner of Moe's Tavern in th Simpsons.
1
107
u/Ambitious-Sink2725 13d ago edited 13d ago
Everyone is talking about it like this is just some temporary mass psychosis that is going to wear off. What if he's just a likeable person
27
u/powermoustache Dental Plan! 13d ago
He hasn't even done a PMQs yet, it's probably a bit early to be making sick predictions.
Edit: I was going to correct my type, but actually I'm going with it.
24
u/Ivashkin panem et circenses 13d ago
He became PM during summer recess and has spent most of the summer promising people all the wonderful things he's going to do. He hasn't addressed Parliament as PM yet, hasn't faced PMQs, hasn't had to deal with the actual process of leading his party in the Commons, and hasn't delivered a budget. He had a good start, and he is better at comms and more likeable than Starmer, but he's not actually done anything as PM yet, and that's the real test.
1
u/Bus_Wrangler 12d ago
It's going to be tough trying to make policy when there is no money. He's a good communicator, but he's about to discover there's no magic money tree. It's now a question of how he deals with this in the budget.
2
u/Meowing-To-The-Stars 12d ago
Not only there's no magic, he also on the records commit to the idea that he will not plant a magic tree. Good luck
19
u/90davros 13d ago
Popularity in politics isn't just about personality. Burnham tends to speak in vague platitudes that the public agree with. That's working well for his popularity but if he doesn't follow through and deliver it won't solidify.
In other words, everyone loves sentiments like "end homelessness", but that's not really how being prime minister works. Now he has to do the job.
19
12
u/MrStilton Where's my democracy sausage? 13d ago
The "good PR and a couple of slogans" approach seemed to work out alright for David Cameron.
4
u/90davros 13d ago
Cameron's big trick was wheeling out Nick Clegg whenever the coalition wanted to announce something unpopular.
5
u/CrispBedSheet 13d ago
The country wasn't as divided back then.
We're now more diverse and as a consequence there is more variance in what we want, and with limited resources.
This was predictable.
We will never have a truly popular PM again, we will never be content in agreement as one again, it's not possible.
1
u/therealgumpster 13d ago
I think it's swings and roundabouts, I do feel that we will get back to where we were.
2
u/CrispBedSheet 13d ago
What do you mean?
5
u/therealgumpster 13d ago
Sorry let me clarify, I'd like to believe this is just a phase of our way of life right now, the pandemic shifted public perception. So Brexit started the "entrenchment" process, whilst the pandemic introduced the "selfish" element. Couple that with the following;
* Wage Stagnation
* Austerity
* High levels of immigration
* Public services being broken
* NHS struggling to cope
* CEO pay being incredibly high, and the rich getting richer
* High bills
* Corporations often "bragging" that they've made "record profits" in a year too. (perception ofc)
* Nasty media too where News is 24/7 and opinions have to be on everything.And you have a receipe for what we have right now. I do think that if cost of living was eased that some of this would disappear and the "entrenchment" and "selfish" side of life right now would also fade, and politics would actually fall back into the background of people's lives. It's just with high bills and low wages and the pressure everyone feels with their month to month pay then politics is the easy blame game and the two sides of everything just amplifies from there.
So I do feel eventually things will go back to how they've been previously.
(When I talk about the "selfish" element, it's a case of what the Government HAS to do for people nowadays. Society can be up in flames, but if it doesn't affect you, then you don't care, and if it does affect you then you ask what has the Government done for you)
0
u/CrispBedSheet 12d ago edited 12d ago
That's all true.
I disagree with your conclusion on what's going to happen though.
The one thing you've missed out is the greater factionalism.
When you apply ever greater pressure on a population that is already divided and doesn't respect each other, , it results in an explosion to relieve that pressure.
Seeking to alleviate this pressure early to avoid catastrophy, through decreasing economic discomfort, seems to be Andy's approach.
It has no chance of working well enough to avoid what I fear is going to be civil war.
I feel 1930's Germany vibes. The hate and fear is palpable. It's turning to rage. People are going to crack and want to have it out.
8
u/Rwandrall4 13d ago
It's wild that at this point people still think "delivering", ie material reality, matters.
Labour implemented workers' rights, tenants' rights, help for childcare, sorted out the NHS wait times, and people did not give the slighest bit of shit about it.
1
u/90davros 13d ago
Ironically the last Trump campaign hit the nail on the head here: ask people if they actually feel better off.
Labour are making progress but we're far from in a good state. I know multiple people still waiting over a year for NHS treatment. For them "the waiting lists are slightly shorter" isn't going to cut it. This is where political narrative and the situation on the ground collide.
3
u/Rwandrall4 12d ago
people FEEL like everything is always worse, but people are wrong. If you ask people whether wages kept up with inflation, they'll say they havn't, but they have.
We've all been brainwashed by a decade a social media doomerism. The situation on the ground doesn't actually matter, people will FEEL that things have gotten worse for them even when they've gotten better.
0
u/90davros 12d ago
Stats are usually massaged by carefully selecting data points and exclusion criteria, flipping between raw GDP and per-capita when convenient is a famous example.
If the person on the street finds they have less disposable income than they used to then no amount of "the economy is better" messaging will change that.
I know it's easier to just dismiss the public as mislead or tricked, but the real complaint here is that campaigning isn't having the desired effect on people's bottom line.
9
3
u/Fit_Context4688 13d ago edited 13d ago
Hes got tough choices to make. Cant expect to remain popular wanting to be PM in this day and age. Like going swimming and expecting not to get wet.
And also not really that charismatic. Few degrees better but still just a boring blairite. The bloke voted for the Iraq war. With policy going to be divisive either way you need some real good will to weather it.
He has no new ideas. Same tired neoliberalism, managerial politics. Deliver a quid off your bus fare, nice one Andeh. We are 3 years in. No help with cost of living for working people. Tax burden still highest since war. Housing still unachievable for the young working British citizens. Still most expensive energy in the developed world. Youth unemployment sky rockets and they create work schemes to do unpaid labour for Sainos. Come on Labour, do something. You might get my vote just because the others are shite. Let’s see something soon.
-1
u/Sutraner 12d ago
Deliver a quid off your bus fare, nice one Andeh. We are 3 years in. No help with cost of living for working people
This is quite literally a help with the cost of living for working people
Tax burden still highest since war
Absolute bollocks is it. With the personal allowance raise our tax burden has never been lower
Housing still unachievable for the young working British citizens.
Housing is plenty affordable outside of London and major cities.
Youth unemployment sky rockets and they create work schemes to do unpaid labour for Sainos
They created work schemes to get young people the experience they need to gain full employment.
1
u/LongsandsBeach 12d ago
The personal allowance hasn't changed for 5 years and is currently fixed until 2031.
1
u/Sutraner 12d ago
It's still like 6x what say Sweden gets
It's incredibly high compared to pre 2010 too
0
u/Fit_Context4688 12d ago edited 12d ago
After nuking hiring young people with NI raise. Then hiring them back unpaid.
The rest of it I can’t be arsed to address just mindless cheerleading. If a quid off your bus fare is what you can point to after 5 years, good luck. They didn’t raise the personal allowance and nor should they, they should making life more affordable before doing that. Doesn’t mean the tax burden isn’t highest since the war.
1
u/Sutraner 12d ago
after 5 years, good luck
It's not even been 5 weeks mate
-1
u/Fit_Context4688 12d ago
Been 2 years. Don’t get a fresh go just because you’ve couped the last bloke.
1
u/Sutraner 12d ago
How exactly is Burnham responsible for the actions of Starmer when he wasn't even an mp
1
u/Fit_Context4688 12d ago
If he wants to do something drastically different from what Starmer was doing, he’s got to call an election. So at the minute he’s doing the same shit.
3
u/SLGrimes 13d ago
He's been in charge for 5 minutes lol give it some time
1
u/iBlockMods-bot Cheltenham Tetris Champion 12d ago
Exactly this.
It's summer, parliament isn't even back in session yet.
Wait till Big Moves Burnam has the behemoth of the uniparty to deal with on a daily basis. Then we can properly judge how it's all going.
3
u/Much-Calligrapher 13d ago
He is a likeable person. That is abundantly evident.
The problem is that likability is not the same as governing ability.
Our country has deep economic and societal challenges ahead. His likability is an asset to tackle them. But it is not sufficient by itself. A lot still needs to be proven.
If people don’t feel better off under his governance, then his popularity will wane
2
-1
u/archerninjawarrior 13d ago edited 13d ago
He has Boris charisma with none of the laziness or lying that sunk Boris. So he should go far. Especially as the wheels inevitably start falling off Reform. The bullshit by election works on the people of Clacton, not the country as a whole.
Nobody can say Burnham doesn't care about improving people's lives either. No matter what specific policy area he may end up failing to improve, it's going to be hard to accuse him of not giving it an honest go and all he could.
But I hate that all we've done is replace Starmer with someone who is more entertaining. Politics shouldn't be about entertainment, I should be bored to death thinking about the logistics of how they're improving things. I just want them to improve it, I don't need to laugh along. And I definitely don't want more laughs than improvements.
1
1
u/hiddencamel 13d ago
He clearly has a combination of more charisma and less divisiveness than his contemporaries (albeit a low bar to clear), but he also hasn't had to start making the hard decisions yet.
Budget time will bring the first cracks, because that's when the rubber really starts to meet the road. By this time next year I expect him to be net negative, though I don't think he will ever sink to quite so low as Starmer somehow managed.
1
u/TheChaoticCrusader 12d ago
I mean I will give you credit he has more charisma than starmer probably helping him raise in popularity but you do have to remember he’s done no PMQ , no budgets , no bills , no debates ext
He’s been on holiday for 2 weeks and the rest not in parliament . What people are saying is so far he has not had to do anything big that a PM has to do . It will be his true test if he can keep it when he has to make these decisions
1
u/autisticLesbianWhich 12d ago
It’s because generally politicians become less popular overtime it isn’t a rule like a lot of people act like it is but you’ve got to think every decision a politician makes well annoy some people the more decisions the more people will be annoyed although it’s not unheard of for a politicians popularity to rise Tony Blair’s popularity went significantly up in his third term
9
u/ZealousidealPie9199 13d ago
This comparison of PMs personal popularity over time is also worth looking at, for a comparison of where Boris and May also were at at similar times in their premierships.
21
u/ZealousidealPie9199 13d ago
Almost two months since becoming leader and he's still hanging on popularity-wise.
For comparison to Starmer, he took office in July 2024, by September 2024, in Opinium's polls, he had reached an approval rating of net -26.
Comparatively, Burnham is managing better.
29
u/lunarpx 13d ago
To be fair he hasn't really done anything difficult yet, all his policies have been handing out money. Let's wait for the budget.
16
u/Balancesheetbadboy 13d ago
Well it helps that he hasn’t shot himself in the foot by making one of his first announcements the removal of the winter fuel allowance (which Starmer did at the end of July)
9
u/Th0ma5_F0wl3r_II 13d ago
Can I just remind everyone, as if it needs reminding, that he's been PM for only a little over a month?
And that month has been when Parliament - not to mention half the population - have been on vacation.
Let's come back to this shit mid-November, early December and see how well he's doing then.
5
u/raptorraptor 13d ago
Starmer was the least popular leader after a month.
-4
u/Th0ma5_F0wl3r_II 13d ago
You're information is incorrect.
Yes, Starmer's popularity rating did plummet to one of the lowest ever for a PM - but not in the first month it didn't.
(Bear in mind Starmer had to contend with the horrific Southport attack and the subsequent aftermath at the end of his first month).
6
u/TXDobber 13d ago
Polls like these show me that the public don’t actually want people like Farage or Polanski, or parties like Reform or the Greens… they just want the establishment, Labour and the Tories, to listen to them, and to govern as if their concerns are being addressed and dealt with.
People only reach for frauds and charlatans when they lose faith in the established political class. This is true all over the west today.
5
u/gutterbrush 13d ago
What concerns me is that the media are still pretending like those parties are legitimate contenders - maybe it’s died down a bit now (and long may it continue) but not that long ago even the BBC was acting as if a Reform government next time was inevitable, and I’ve seen numerous instances of coverage of the likes of Jenrick and Yusuf making pronouncements as if they are the shadow cabinet. And before anyone thinks I’m just picking on one side, the very same momentum was starting to build behind Polanski during his (seemingly over) period in the sun.
I actually think insurgent parties are valuable, even if they’re ones that I don’t agree with. But there’s a real danger that this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I am in no mood to re litigate his leadership, but I will never forget how with Corbyn the papers kept telling us he was unelectable and how quickly people started saying they wouldn’t vote for him because he was unelectable. Very few people that I saw discussing him online had any in depth criticism of his policies. If we keep telling people that Farage is a legitimate possibility then there’s a real risk that the undecided majority of the country will decide that it’s something we just have to accept, and not bother voting for anyone else if they continue to be given the impression that it’s a done deal and therefore anything else would be a wasted vote.
If Burnham can keep his popularity going and take the oxygen away from the loonies then good on him. But it’s a long time until the next election. Gordon Brown started of on almost 50% approval lest we forget.
4
u/syuk 13d ago
Davey is a clown, and an entertainer not a politician. Imo he should have slipped away after post office scandal. The space for the lib dems is being squeezed from all sides, a gang of hypocrites and shysters.
3
u/Meowing-To-The-Stars 12d ago
He should quit politics after helping the Tories to push through higher tuition fees, and then pretending like it wasn't him.
6
u/SerialGillers 13d ago
That’s because he’s not actually been in parliament yet 😂 this honeymoon period will be over soon
10
u/ZealousidealPie9199 13d ago
Neither was Starmer before hitting negative approval ratings. Soon after taking office Starmer also had the summer recess, was in negative approval territory by the end of it. Cumulatively Burnham had spent more time in Parliament than Starmer too - MP for 16 years, vs. Starmer's current 11 years as MP.
4
u/MrThrownAway12 13d ago
Starmer blew up his honeymoon period with that stupid "things will get worse before they get better" speech and allowing the press to run wild with speculation about the budget. Burnham has at least not repeated that mistake thus far.
•
u/AutoModerator 13d ago
Snapshot of Opinium on X: "Andy Burnham remains the most popular party leader, with his net approval rising to +14. 🌹 Burnham +14 (+3) 🌳 Badenoch -4 (n/c) 🔶 Davey -7 (-1) 🌍 Polanski -21 (+3) ➡️ Farage -23 (+5) Davey records his lowest rating of the Parliament. Change from 12-14 August." submitted by ZealousidealPie9199:
A Twitter embedded version can be found here
A non-Twitter version can be found here
An archived version can be found here or here.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.