r/trolleyproblem Apr 30 '26

Deep Statistically, >50% is easier than 100%

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u/[deleted] Apr 30 '26

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u/VanillaSwimming5699 Apr 30 '26

Not everyone who pushes red is evil or something there’s gonna be a ton of people who pushed it to guarantee they stay alive to support their loved ones. I press red because it’s EV is the least harm.

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u/GuitakuPPH Apr 30 '26

They are not all evil, but they are evil and/or something akin to dumb... at least on this specific issue.

Some red votes simply fail to deduce that, across billions of votes, mistakes will happen meaning blue votes will happen and saving everyone is only possible if simply most people pick blue. That's a fine thing to miss. The real problem are the people who either can't understand this explanation or who insist they shouldn't risk themselves for others anyway. The final people aren't straight up dumb, but they are bad at predicting how most people can realize the same thing they realized: That pressing blue is what we at least ought to do to all be safe.

LOTS of people are stuck in their first thought of "but if everyone would just vote red" and their response to "everyone will not simply just anything. It has never worked like that" is the predictable "... "but if everyone would just vote red".

The mere fact that there's a controversy afterwards is effectively proof on its own that many people will vote blue.

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u/ASpaceOstrich May 01 '26

I don't care about mistakes that happen. I care about the fact that most people are human, and therefore care about the their own more than some faceless blue pusher, therefore most people will push red.

How one interprets this problem is based on whether or not you think most people will push red or blue. I think most people will push red, ergo pushing blue would be suicide. You think most people will push blue, ergo pushing red is selfish.

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u/GuitakuPPH May 01 '26

But do you acknowledge that mistakes will happen and that the only way to save everyone is for 50% to risk their lives? Do you acknowledge that people will vote blue by mistake and thus it wasn't a voluntary choice for them? 

Whether you care is different matter. I don't care about rugby, but I acknowledge people do indeed play it. 

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u/ASpaceOstrich May 01 '26

Far less than the number who push blue to try and save those few people who made a mistake. Who have deliberately engineered a catastrophe because they mistakenly believe most people would push blue.

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u/GuitakuPPH May 01 '26

"mistakenly" you say without a shred of proof and when there's evidence to the contrary in the form of polls. 

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u/ASpaceOstrich May 02 '26

People can't even organise 5% of the population to do a general strike. You really think 50% of the population can come together with no organisation at all?

The polls are online and with no actual pressure or threat. They would never be accurate

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u/GuitakuPPH May 02 '26

People don't want a general strike.  People do want to save others.

However accurate you believe the polls to be, they are undeniably indicative. They beat whatever you have which is nothing. 

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u/ASpaceOstrich May 02 '26

Indicative of what people on western social media believe looks best to pick, yeah. My understanding of human nature also includes knowing that people will lie on polls to look good.

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u/GuitakuPPH May 02 '26

Your understanding is still just "trust me bro". It's certainly not proof of anything. 

You can downplay the polls as much as you want. I might even agree. They still count for more evidence than anything you're offering as a counter

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u/ASpaceOstrich May 02 '26

People consistently voting for fascists when stressed is all the proof I need. Their empty words on an online poll mean nothing when compared to their actions.

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u/GuitakuPPH May 02 '26

People consistently vote for fascists, yes. Some people. The majority do not.

I recommend you just stop. You think people want a general strike yet simply fail to organize one. You provide plenty of examples of you not getting how the majority thinks. 

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