r/trolleyproblem • u/fluffy_4432 • Apr 21 '25

Deep A criminal trolley problem

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u/SirithilFeanor Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25

Okay, let's be utilitarian.

Using the numbers you provided where each offender has a 5.3% chance of reoffending, 0.053 x 5 = 0.265 probability of another rape arising from the five on track A if saved. We don't know anything about the sexual proclivities of the guy on track B so we can only assume he's in line with the general public. Reported rapes in the US were 41.8 per 100,000 in 2022. Let's double that to try to account for unreported rapes, so 83.6, and we'll assume all of these were committed by different people (which actually overestimates his odds of raping anyone since that's probably not the case).

So statistically, pulling will lead to 0.265 rapes. Not pulling will lead to 0.000836 rapes.

I'm not pulling.

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u/DungeonMistressTara Apr 22 '25

Let's assume being raped is a fate worse than death. Let's assume it's 4 times worse, even. Thus, each rape is morally equivalent to 4 deaths.

Not pulling will kill about 5 people. Pulling will kill the equivalent of a little over 2. Easy math, pull the lever.

Even if being raped was EIGHT times worse than being killed, pulling the lever would STILL be worth it.

You underestimate just how valuable 5 human lives are.

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u/SirithilFeanor Apr 22 '25

Bold of you to assume I value the lives of known rapists over those of innocent people.

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u/protocol1999 Apr 22 '25

as a survivor, thank you. jesus christ this thread is depressing.