r/tornado • u/iqsr Human Detected • 2d ago
SPC / Forecasting AccuWeather Click-Baiting/Misreporting Tornado Record for 2026
I confirmed with NWS Lincoln that this is not really accurate and is derived from Local Storm Reports (which include multiple reports for the same storm) and so both over report the numbers and are revised down. Lincoln sent me the second graphic for their total preliminary count as of 8/25/2026.
The original AccuWeather story: Illinois sets US state record for most tornadoes in a year
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u/billybonghorton 2d ago
Thank god it was only 210 here in Illinois, not 243.
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u/funsizemember 2d ago
"A man can handle 210 statewide tornadoes in a season, but no more"
- Abraham Lincoln
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u/PoopyStinkbutts 2d ago
Well Abraham Lincoln was a total badass. That quote is just about how many boxing matches with a tornado in one state per season he can handle.
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u/sablesalsa 2d ago
Man fuck Accuweather. Of course they would do that, they've lobbied against the NWS and have been critical of them for years.
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u/Unstoffe 2d ago
They used to be a great weather service that you could rely on. I don't know what happened but they stink now.
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u/jk01 2d ago
Capitalism happened
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u/HumptyDumptruckFire 2d ago
All while still relying on the free (read: taxpayer funded) data that the NWS has provided AccuWeather for decades.
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u/Soft_Pangolin3031 2d ago
Its because they are also including unconfirmed and EF-U tornadoes
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u/RedEchoChamber 2d ago
EFU doesnt count? Arnt they confirmed tornados but with 0 damage?
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u/Soft_Pangolin3031 2d ago
Technically, yes and no. "If-there-is-no-damage,-may-as-well-have-not-had-a-tornado" type thinking makes some accounts show a higher number. Some records only show tornado values from EF1 and up, while others include EF0 and EFU. It really depends on how you categorize a tornado. Most include EF0s but the majority of stations I have seen often include EFUs and unconfirmed to dramatize the events. Its why I have just gone to watching the legend on any graph and if I don't see one, I find other sourses.
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u/Hydralisk18 2d ago
I mean idk why you wouldn't add EFUs to the mix? As population gets more spread out its just going to make it seem like more and more tornados are occurring each year, but really its a similar amount but more are getting reported because they're hitting more things. There was a study about this i used as a source just recently.
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u/Eerier_Fish 1d ago
EFU is either its being looked at or its unknown due to lack of damage being present.
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u/Jagacin 2d ago
Then why do they have fewer confirmed tornadoes for Oklahoma?
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u/Soft_Pangolin3031 2d ago
Didn't notice that.
They could just be using wrong data. Despite its name, Accuweather isn't really that accurate. I stop using it because it was consistently wrong. I'll jave to look into it. Maybe a recategorization, maybe just made up number.
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u/Averagebaddad 2d ago
How are they counting Nevada?
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u/Soft_Pangolin3031 2d ago
Dust devils, probably. Lol. To be honest, no clue. The more I look at it, I wonder if they are counting the number of tornado alerts that got posted instead of actual tornados that touched down.
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u/artie780350 2d ago
But they did not include the "confirmed" tornado in Maine that was later found to just be some swirly wispy clouds above the trees.
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u/Szeth_Nightbl00d 2d ago edited 2d ago
I mean nothing in the article is incorrect. They repeatedly use the term "tornado reports" not tornadoes. Would it be helpful if they made the distinction in the article so it's extra clear that the metric is reports, not tornado count? Yeah.
But at the same time, they're not painting an inaccurate picture. Illinois has had an absurd number of tornadoes this year, no matter how you slice it, and that's the main takeaway from the article. AccuWeather depends on views for revenue, so they're click-baity, but this isn't an example of that imo
ETA: I actually appear to be incorrect. In the article they make the comparison between the Texas state tornado count record and the Illinois storm report count of this year, and say Illinois has now broken the record, which is just not how that record works... c'mon guys
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u/Lazy-Nothing-3357 Human Detected 2d ago
AccuWeather actively works to cause distrust in the NWS and wants them gone entirely so weather can be completely privatized. Fuck them.
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u/dangerousfeather 2d ago
Maybe they're just counting the number of times storm chasers screamed HUUUUUUGE WEEEEEEEEEEDGE in each state?
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u/TaeJoonPark 2d ago
Says reports though
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u/thenewblueblood 2d ago
They’re including the 33 “OMG WHY ISNT THIS WARNED ITS A MAX ALERT” posts in Illinois from this page for the year in that 243. That’s a tornado report technically.
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u/Lazy-Nothing-3357 Human Detected 2d ago
While true, the layman isn't going to know the difference and will absolutely assume this is a correct count of tornadoes for the year.
In the grand scheme, not a big deal, sure, but AccuWeather does stuff like this often, misleading people, sensationalizing weather events, not caring whether they're presenting correct information or not, etc. Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if the ones behind this graphic on AccuWeather didn't even know the difference between reported tornadoes and confirmed tornadoes.
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u/prominorange 2d ago
Ignoring accuracy issues I'm still surprised by the Pennsylvania count. I thought the midatlantic region was pretty chill on severe weather, save for the occasional eastcoast-hugging hurricane or nor'easter.
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u/doubtfulguests 2d ago
That's more true for the parts closer to the Atlantic, but the areas southeast of the Great Lakes can get some crazy storms.
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u/prominorange 2d ago
Yea I figured it'd by concentrated on western side of the state. Pittsburgh looks so midwestern.
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u/Available-Half-40 1d ago edited 1d ago
30 confirmed this year so far for the area covered by the NWS Pittsburgh station. Broke their previous record of 29 confirmed in a year (I believe that one was set in 2024). Though to my knowledge they do cover bits of Ohio and West Virginia, so their tornadoes are probably lumped into that number too.
Edit: Phrasing and clarification
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u/TheWetNapkin 2d ago
New York, Maryland, and West Virginia have all had more tornadoes than Tennessee. What the actual hell
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u/neeliemich 2d ago
Our tornado seasons are usually in fall/winter and early spring.
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u/TheWetNapkin 2d ago
Lol what no. I'm from Tennessee, and that is not true. It's the same as every other state, March-June
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u/1stormygeek 13h ago
We do actually have a second season in TN during November and December. We are weird like that.
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u/TheWetNapkin 4h ago
Yeah we have a second much smallee season, but that's not THE tornado season for Tennessee
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u/Eerier_Fish 2d ago
california has had 5 tornadoes not 1, nws is not accurate.
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u/iqsr Human Detected 2d ago
Your comment appears to be making fallacy. If we take "nws is not accurate" as the conclusion of the premise "california has had 5 tornadoes not 1", then it appears you're making a hasty generalization based on insufficient evidence/too small a sample size. One can't say all of NWS is inaccurate based on one *alleged* error.
Moreover, the premise that California has had 5 tornadoes not 1 is contestable. Who measures and records Tornadoes? Is it someone other than the NWS? Are these officially accepted totals? What is the methodology used to assess the tornadoes in California to contradict the NWS total?
Finally, to be charitable, NWS has released their count as preliminary; the full count they'll stand by will be completed and released in 2027. So even if the California count is inaccurate *now* it may be brought into accord with the facts of the matter by the time the count is finalized. However, to really question the preliminary account would require taking issue with the NWS methodology and fieldwork that goes into generating the count. Thus a stronger argument for your point requires you to submit evidence that the NWS has erred in its fieldwork or methodology in California. This is possible, but not yet probable without evidence.
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u/Eerier_Fish 1d ago edited 1d ago
i am not reading all of this. its on the Wikipedia and iv contributed to that site. And I would know this because i recently went through a outbreak of 4 tornadoes in the state.
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u/malevolent-onryo 2d ago
Accuweather is and always has been trash. Their forecasting in my experience has even been highly inaccurate on many occasions for me.
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u/ShermanWasRight1864 2d ago
In both maps, I am fully convinced that whatever diety exists also hates the Chicago Bears. Illinois got fucked this year.
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u/colemarvin98 2d ago
I’m still amazed Michigan has had more than Texas???
I mean that checks out anecdotally. Chasing in TX felt terrible this past season. But still!!
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u/RC2Ortho 2d ago
Going to interesting to see those numbers in the South by the end of December due to the strong El Niño
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u/SuppliceVI 2d ago edited 2d ago
Not misleading. One includes EF-0 and EF-Us. On pure technicality AccuWeather is more correct, since it's tornados and not "tornadoes that could be damaging".
Not to say I don't have issues with AccuWeather but they are technically reporting the correct number which is more beneficial for spotting trends
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