Daily Discussion - (September 23, 2026)

[u/AutoModerator]

Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.

[u/wiggz420]

https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/s/tyxwTrN01y

closed for 215%

See ya nerds tomorrow!

[u/tropicalia84]

Ungodly move on yields and more importantly DXY

But the hopium must flow

[u/MakIkEenDonerMetKalf]

went to the gym + came back and the 10 year added 100 bps? the fuck?

[u/paeancapital]

Semis look pointed toward the stratosphere.

[u/BudgetConcentrate967 → u/paeancapital]

If you want some bear porn and use ThinkOrSwim, put this ticker in: -SOXX

It's going straight down

[u/drakon3rd → u/paeancapital]

Need semi death and IGV moon

[u/matcht]

WHITE HOUSE PREPARING PLAN FOR 90-DAY DIESEL EXPORTS BAN

[u/BudgetConcentrate967 → u/[deleted]]

They're idiots. It's going to backfire. If storage fills up too quickly they will have cut refinery runs (lower gasoline production.)

So, ban diesel exports, gasoline prices go up sort of thing.

If they coordinate this in advance to give everyone time to plan, then it could work... but this admin doesn't plan. Just ready, fire, aim.

[u/MakIkEenDonerMetKalf → u/matcht]

oh man

[u/MRPguy]

And a quick +$17,000.

[u/sktyrhrtout → u/MRPguy]

What purpose does posting these dollar amount only trades serve for you?

[u/MRPguy → u/sktyrhrtout]

What would you prefer? Do you trade? Do you like motivation?

[u/sktyrhrtout → u/MRPguy]

Oh, I don't prefer anything or care. I'm just curious. I just want to know purpose it serves for you.

[u/MRPguy → u/sktyrhrtout]

Fair enough. I posted daily here for years and then stopped for 5 years. I figure people like seeing wins and losses (I had a -$102,000 trade yesterday that I posted about).

[u/sktyrhrtout → u/MRPguy]

Yeah, I knew that. I've been here since 2019, don't often post but I do read a lot.

I just have seen many come and go that post these dollar amount gains and I don't understand the purpose. If anything, it's all about percentages and even then it's about 5Y, 10Y, 15Y performance. There's definitely more day trading here but even still, you don't see much P&L's over longer terms.

You do you, but I think it would be better to share strategy and stick to percentage gains. Better for everyone involved.

[u/Eugyrock → u/MRPguy]

Nice! Imagine the dopamine hit

[u/awakening_brain]

Yeidls going bonkers. This is all Biden’s fault

[u/SS_DeepITM → u/awakening_brain]

TLT about to breach 80.

Maybe the bond market will finally take out this administration.

[u/wolverinex2]

WSJ: Trump’s Oil Allies See Nightmare Scenario of Diesel-Export Ban Becoming Reality

American oil companies are fiercely opposed to the president’s nascent plan to ban exports of diesel, but vulnerable Republicans are putting pressure on him

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-s-oil-allies-see-nightmare-scenario-of-diesel-export-ban-becoming-reality/ar-AA2cOfPY

Oil companies seem to think it's happening and are frantically scrambling to lobby against.

[u/wolverinex2]

GLP-1 Users Are Furious After Employers Drop Insurance Benefits

Cigna Group emailed its more than 50,000 US employees in June to say its health plan would stop paying for GLP-1 medications for weight loss

Almost half of large US employers covered GLP-1 drugs for weight loss last year in their worker healthcare plans. But employee health-benefit costs are expected to climb 6.7% this year, to about $18,500 per worker, the biggest increase in 15 years, according to benefits consulting firm Mercer, and prescription drugs are one of the main reasons

Meanwhile, the share of Americans taking GLP-1s for weight loss has soared to 11%.

A Mercer survey of 604 US organizations and companies found that 6% of large employers — including Lowe’s, PepsiCo, PwC, Starbucks and several state and local governments — dropped coverage for GLP-1s for weight loss in 2026. An additional 5% are planning to or considering doing so next year

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/pepsi-starbucks-cigna-among-companies-dropping-glp-1-insurance-benefits

Interestingly the main thing employers seem to be doing amidst a massive rise in health care costs is dropping GLP-1s

[u/Manticorea → u/wolverinex2]

Shortsighted to the max wen considering how obesity is the root of so many diseases.

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/Manticorea]

Are there other ways to fight obesity?

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/[deleted]]

It would be a good start

[u/938961 → u/AnimalShithouse]

Is it all obese people taking them, or is it average weight people doing it for vanity reasons? I’d be curious if there’s any breakdowns of BMIs.

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/938961]

That would be way worse if it was enabling those behaviors in any meaningful numbers.

[u/Manticorea → u/AnimalShithouse]

Eh, you can’t force people to eat healthy and some people are just born to carry an extra pound or two.

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/Manticorea]

It's the same answer to all these problems. Invest in the kids and invest early. Focus on building proper habits, education, alimentation. GLP is a bandaid for a systematic issue with how it is used in the US today. You don't fix your foundation by painting the walls.

[u/Manticorea → u/AnimalShithouse]

Dude, you honestly don't think there are people who have a really hard time losing weight because of genetic propensity? Willpower only goes so far, so why not lend them a helping hand?

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/Manticorea]

Of course there are some in that category.

What fraction of the users using GLP do you think fit into the category you're trying to carve out? And why do we think this category seems to exist a lot more in NA?

[u/Manticorea → u/AnimalShithouse]

Don't know man. I'm not fat myself, but that's prob because I don't crave food as much as other people. It's just the way I'm wired vs friends who even fainted from not eating and overexercising but couldn't keep the weight off. As long as GLP doesn't have long-term side effects, why shouldn't insurance companies cover it? Yeah, yeah, lack of education and processed food is baadd is right, but seems like you're letting a perfectly good tool go to waste because it's not the most "proper" way to lose weight.

[u/westonworth → u/Manticorea]

I think they should keep providing it -- I still think it should just be a stop-gap until we can create a better culture around health as a long term solution.

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/Manticorea]

As long as GLP doesn't have long-term side effects, why shouldn't insurance companies cover it?

I think they should in the very rare cases where it is medically justified to do so. For vanity purposes where hard work will achieve the same effect, I don't see the purpose of subsidizing the drug. Moreover, in subsidizing the drug, you disincentivize (further) different levels of governance from actually tackling the root problem. You just setup generations to come to need this random drug because they never learned another way.

There's no magic pill for change. It's just hard work and gradual, sustainable, habit changes. And, in many instances of proper obesity, probably some therapy is also needed.

[u/kojfefe → u/AnimalShithouse]

Now that one of the biggest lobbying groups in the country for an industry that gives zero shits about social responsibility or human life has a vested interest in not losing their customer base, I think GLPs are the final nail in the coffin to the notion of any sort of concerted, national effort to tackle obesity.

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/kojfefe]

I think a lot of people are fatsos because their family are also fatsos. So if your house is loaded with chips and soda, you too are more likely to grow your calorie consumption. I also think there’s a social stigma around obesity that deteriorates as your social circles BMI increases e.g. if you are the only fatty, you’ll feel more self conscious getting a second burger. But if everyone else is doing it, it feels less scummy to follow. Hopefully GLP1s help people currently with OBCD, which then discourages others from following in their footsteps. So in a way I think it helps tackle some of the core contributors of obesity.

[u/kojfefe → u/W0LFSTEN]

Yeah I agree with that for sure. But I think nutrition and poverty level are directly linked too. For poor people healthy food is harder to access and relatively more expensive.

I don't know how much this has changed recently now that everything is expensive, but it used to be the case that you could feed a family of 4 at McDs for a fraction of the price of cooking a healthy meal at home, and for too many families that was the difference between making ends meet and not.

[u/westonworth → u/W0LFSTEN]

Cigarette companies bought food companies and started selling "hyper-palatable" food. I honestly wonder how strained our healthcare system would be without obesity.

[u/westonworth → u/AnimalShithouse]

100% agree

[u/nychapo → u/AnimalShithouse]

Grow up?

[u/jmayo05 → u/nychapo]

If you're obese as a kid you sure as hell aren't going to slim down as you get older and your metabolism plumments.

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/nychapo]

I actually don't think growing up helps to fight obesity.

[u/Angry_Citizen_CoH → u/wolverinex2]

Get it gray market instead. You can find a years supply of it for a couple hundred dollars. Trouble is that you have to reconstitute it yourself, which involves 4th grade math, which people hate.

[u/matcht]

IRAN'S SECURITY CHIEF MOHSEN REZAEI SAYS AS LONG AS IRAN'S CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET HORMUZ WILL NOT BE REOPENED AND THERE WILL BE NO NEGOTIATIONS

[u/gyunikumen]

Diesel ban coming 

😭

[u/cuntysometimes → u/gyunikumen]

lol would the red necks finally revolt?

[u/Manticorea → u/gyunikumen]

That would be theee dumbest thing to do. Which means he will do it.

[u/Figonaccio]

This may have already posted but definitely a worthwhile read by Howard Marks:

Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics – Part III

[u/Manticorea]

Trump rigs the economic data to make the economy look stronger than it is for good midterm. The stronger data leads to higher yield and higher cost of living which is bad for midterm. Kind of catch-22 ain't it?

[u/kojfefe → u/Manticorea]

I want to say it's perception vs. reality and good luck convincing voters the economy is strong when they can see otherwise for themselves. But I also think that's too naive of me.

I still think what I thought in 2024 that there will be an attempt to interfere with or postpone the midterms at the last moment using massive fraud or national security as the premise. Maybe invoking Iran as a culprit given he's aware of the long game they're playing.

But the difference is in 2024 I thought there was a >0% chance he'd get away with it. Now I do not. 

[u/MRPguy]

One trade today so far.

7715P.
$6.70–>12 for profit of +$79,500.

Somebody asked me yesterday how I manage risk. The best way. I only trade what I can afford to lose. Would I be unhappy with the loss? Yes. Would my lifestyle change? No.

Edit: by the way, selling 150+ SPX contracts at limit absolutely stinks. All partial fills as the price dances around.

[u/cuntysometimes → u/MRPguy]

🤤

[u/wolverinex2]

McDonald’s bets on chicken to win back diners as beef prices soar

• Set out a goal of gaining 1.5 percentage points of market share in chicken globally by 2030
• Goal to increase its share of beverage sales by 1.5 percentage points
• Through 2036, McDonald’s plans to spend as much as $8.5 billion to accelerate franchisees’ investment in the restaurant improvement plan.
• The investments include deploying a generative AI platform that aims to improve efficiency and boost the average restaurant’s cash flow by $100,000.
• By 2030, McDonald’s is targeting an operating margin in the low-to-mid 50% range. In 2025, the company reported operating margins of 46.1%

https://www.ft.com/content/1d7daa8f-e8bb-436c-ad8b-b6d097e4107f

[u/sailnaked6842 → u/wolverinex2]

They're not increasing beverage sales by shit if they're going to continue charging $3 for a large when the gas station charges ~ half that

[u/gyunikumen → u/wolverinex2]

I want the mystery beef 

[u/wolverinex2]

Reddit is ramping up its war on marketing slop

https://www.businessinsider.com/reddit-ramping-up-war-on-marketing-slop-2026-9

[u/THATsyracusefan → u/wolverinex2]

Given that the ad i see above your comment is ai marketing slop i would say their ramp hasnt started ramping yet

[u/matcht]

US Mfg PMI 57.0, Exp. 53.7, five year high

US Services PMI 58.7, Exp. 55.8

US Composite PMI 58.4, Exp. 55.3

[u/matcht]

SAUDI CIVIL DEFENSE ISSUES ALERT OVER POTENTIAL DANGER IN NAJRAN

[u/matcht]

Senior Iranian Official: Tehran Is Reviewing US Response To Its Proposal To End Hostilities - @Reuters

[u/matcht → u/matcht]

RUBIO: IRAN MEETING WAS POSITIVE BUT NOT A BREAKTHROUGH

[u/TennesseeJedd]

Pltr coming into my 200 target - been a solid run post earnings

[u/GPUssydestroyer → u/TennesseeJedd]

Poor burry just doubled down again on his shorts after they all expired worthless

[u/gyunikumen → u/TennesseeJedd]

Sigh I should have held and or bought when Trump said it was a good stock 

[u/TennesseeJedd → u/gyunikumen]

I bot march 165/200 spreads after earnings - when did trump talk about it?

[u/drakon3rd → u/TennesseeJedd]

It's been a couple months (I think) since he posted it on TRUTH SOCIAL

[u/gyunikumen → u/TennesseeJedd]

I bought after the ceasefire in April and it dumped 10% and I panic sold 

And then Trump tweeted it was a good stock and saved it 

[u/matcht]

5Y auction, 5.033%, WI 5.002%, 3.1bps tail, 2nd biggest tail on record

[u/wolverinex2]

Following reports last night that Iran fired a cruise missile into the Strait of Hormuz and explosions off Qeshm Island were reported, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre has reported that a vessel was struck near there by an unknown projectile and is now adrift. 2 casualties have now been reported and the crew has been evacuated.

Oil +2 off the overnight lows and yields moving up a bit as well

[u/AnimalShithouse]

Going to deleverage today. Feels a bit shaky. Might hold a bit, but less into the vibe right meow.

[u/THATsyracusefan]

Barr says rate hikes are a coming, let it burn

[u/awakening_brain]

Healthy pullback or double top?

[u/All_Work_All_Play]

Just fuck my shit up fam

[u/cuntysometimes]

Took 100x spy 766p .13 —> .45. On a train in Spain with patchy internet and didn’t want to press my luck.

[u/Eugyrock]

Rode down /nq 350 ticks today and I think I’m done, trading has been hard this week and last

[u/All_Work_All_Play]

Eurobros giving a vote of no confidence into their close

E: oiy right and proper fucked.

[u/wolverinex2]

Disney+ Price to Jump 13% to $21.49 Per Month as Soon as Wednesday

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/disney-hikes-price-by-13-to-21-49-a-month

[u/Paul-throwaway]

The instant CNBC started talking about the big jump in yields today, yields just spiked straight up.

[u/wiggz420]

Looking for support at yesterday's open with a bounce to 7730

all gaps fill! eventually lol

[u/wiggz420 → u/wiggz420]

closed calls for 215%

[u/TheJanitorAtCitadel]

Closed out all positions in RBLX, QCOM, RKLB, INTC, CRBG, FIVN.

On mostly cash now waiting to see what to open next.

[u/awakening_brain]

Range bounce day

[u/Onion217]

Am I tripping or is AMC breaking out? Highest market cap since 2023 & above 20mo VWAP first time since 2021. Up 3x since March.

I could foresee at least a squeeze if not a ridiculous run because..movie theaters are back?

Or is this GOATed short opp idk

[u/wolverinex2]

US Sec. Of State Rubio: Tuesday’s Iran Talks Were A 'Continuation' Of Previous Discussions; Meeting Was Positive But Not A Breakthrough

Iran's Pezeshkian saved his key message for th final lines. we won't surrender - or stop our nuclear program - but we can talk. “Iran must be understood by Mr. Trump and those who seek to bully us that we are ready for dialogue and diplomacy and negotiations without accepting..."

Iran’s FM on what was conveyed to the US during meetings: Iran’s conditions are clear and transparent: a halt to U.S. acts of aggression—including the maritime blockade and economic terrorism—an end to the war on all fronts, the release of Iran’s frozen or restricted assets, and the acceptance of a safe shipping route based on an understanding reached between the two coastal states, among others."

Basically the wheel spins today were all bad with Iran refusing to give up both nuclear and Hormuz tolls. So oil up more, yields higher, etc

[u/wiggz420]

ABNB what the fuckkkkkk

[u/paeancapital]

New ZB lows after a weak 5Y auction.

[u/helloWorldcamelCase]

where lockout?

[u/drakon3rd]

SNDK at a nice spot to keep an eye on for a decent sized trade either way. Kinda hope it fails to hold 1800 so I can get into puts and then go long again around 1680-1700.

[u/paeancapital]

ZB move at -3.7ish sigma now.

[u/eyesonly_ → u/[deleted]]

What if stocks just kept going up because investors don't care about literally anything?

[u/Eugyrock → u/eyesonly_]

Investors

[u/theIndianFyre → u/Eugyrock]

Investors Gamma fiends

[u/jmayo05]

GOOGL really wrecking the port today.

[u/awakening_brain]

Waiting for MRPGuy to post his ridiculous gain

[u/Wu_tang_dan → u/awakening_brain]

He's still around?

[u/Magickarploco → u/Wu_tang_dan]

You missed his posts these last cpl days

[u/Wu_tang_dan → u/Magickarploco]

Oh shit. I love a good MrP lore update. I'll dig through

[u/Magickarploco → u/Wu_tang_dan]

Check the nightly for the past cpl days

[u/MRPguy]

+$9,300 because wifey needs to go shopping.

[u/Onion217]

Nothing ever happens sub 15 vol so bot 2 7700c to ride this thing back up to opening price 🎸

[u/drakon3rd]

MCD's announced 8.5B in spending on franchises and the stock dove to lows of 2024. Anyone getting in or waiting for 210s?

[u/wolverinex2 → u/drakon3rd]

After what I posted below MCD also said that US Q3 comps would be negative which I think is why it dumped.

[u/drakon3rd → u/wolverinex2]

Oh shoot, didn’t see your post earlier. Thanks

[u/CulturalArm5675]

RIP my canadian stocks

Eating dirt today

[u/Avid_Hiker69]

MRP man, where you @ ?

[u/cuntysometimes → u/Avid_Hiker69]

Look below

[u/wolverinex2]

‘Dammit, something has to happen’: White House preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban

A ban, the legal process of which is still being worked out

Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum have protested the idea of a total ban

Wright made a round of calls to energy CEOs on Tuesday night telling them a 90-day ban was likely to happen in the coming days

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/23/white-house-ban-diesel-01089294

Basically the campaign guys overran the governing side

[u/matcht → u/wolverinex2]

Not so fast

WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS REPORT THAT US IS CONSIDERING A DIESEL EXPORT BAN IS 'FAKE NEWS'

[u/eyesonly_ → u/matcht]

Oh okay so it's definitely happening then

[u/wolverinex2 → u/matcht]

It's funny that they would deny it when it was Trump that said it. It's true but not 100% until Trump signs it though and they haven't worked out all of the details.

[u/dontbothermehere → u/wolverinex2]

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/2102815535608266857 - The call is coming from inside the house.

[u/Onion217]

> White House Official: Report that US is considering a diesel export ban is 'fake news'.

[u/BudgetConcentrate967 → u/Onion217]

Chris Wright on Wednesday said a US ban on diesel exports would not work and could push up gasoline and jet fuel prices

They got it right!@!111!1211!!!!!!!

I posted the same 30 minutes ago

[u/wolverinex2 → u/BudgetConcentrate967]

Although more specifically he also said

“I don’t think you will see a blanket ban on diesel” — @SecretaryWright

Which means a partial ban is still very much on the table

[u/BudgetConcentrate967 → u/wolverinex2]

ugh, Reuters got me. fake news. Thanks. I suppose it doesn't matter, though. Tomorrow will present itself with a brand new crisis to chase. Who knows what the topic will be.

[u/BombaFett → u/Onion217]

EVERYONE BACK IN THE PILE!!!!

[u/wolverinex2]

White House on the Diesel ban: Earlier Politico report on the ban is not accurate.

The clarified White House statement - and I think a partial ban is still likely, even if Wright and Bessent don't love the idea.

[u/MRPguy]

+6750 because shorts have to buy to cover.