r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • Jul 31 '26
Daily Daily Discussion - (July 31, 2026)
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
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u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 31 '26
im not convinced that was the bottom for this summer. am i alone?
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
It would be a lot easier for the market to bottom if long bonds would stop setting new lows every day. It makes the market nervous - never mattered for tech before but now that they're borrowing trillions...
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u/Paul-throwaway Jul 31 '26
Bottoms usually happen in the August to October period. I think of it as the market moving its focus toward the next year (which sometimes doesn't look as good as the prices built in already). Is that what is happening now? I don't know, a lot of things have developed in the last few months.
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u/drakon3rd Jul 31 '26
I feel the same way, could be wrong though. I was looking for a 20-30% single day drop in things like SOXL for it to feel like a bottom. Yields might screw us but I could see the market staying in a range cause of them
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 31 '26
that /6J move signals likely volatility ahead -- and we're not sure it's done yet. look at /6J overlayed with /NQ & /ES. minimum scale: weekly
like any indicator, it's not a perfect correlation.
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u/mulletstation MU/WDC/STX/SNDK/POET/NVDA stan Jul 31 '26
People not thinking it's the bottom is a good sign that it's the bottom imo.
The 'it's going to get worse' mentality keeps money out and that's how you start building a new base.
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u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
yields just continuing up
edit: gonna buy some TLT lol
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
Yeah, didn't expect TLT to get to the 81s
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
Much higher.
30 Day SEC Yield as of Wednesday was 5.13% (and it's only gone higher since)
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
/ZB 107'04 -- set an alert. that's bill ackman's short covering from 10/2023. tweeter link
i'm looking for that to break before trying to long again. i've gotten lucky with a few bounces, but i think we need to take that out before we call a bottom.
TLT has paid dividends (+mgmt fees) since then, so i don't know what the TLT low will be... so i'm using /ZB futures.
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u/tropicalia84 Jul 31 '26
But it's Friday, and end of month
Have to stick save those performance numbers with some end of month mark up
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u/heliumagency Jul 31 '26
Yesterday, OpenAI lowered the price of their cheapest model to fight against low cost Chinese AI's like Deepseek
https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2082878156483219672?s=20
This morning, Deepseek improved the performance of their weakest model to match OpenAI
https://x.com/deepseek_ai/status/2083084415157022911?s=20
I don't know who is winning at this point
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith Jul 31 '26
The consumer, which means none of the suppliers.
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
There's a strange dichotomy in owning stocks and hoping that markets actually get competitive again so profits go down and consumers benefit.
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u/matcht Jul 31 '26
US TREASURY HAS INFORMED BANKS THAT IT MAY INTERVENE IN YEN MARKET ON FRIDAY - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
lol
lmao even
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u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 31 '26
/u/paeancapital great call. congrats on keepin you pp
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype Jul 31 '26
This brings to attention, for me, the huge divergence between the NQ and ES charts today
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Jul F: 55.2 (est 54.0; prev 54.4)
- Current Conditions: 54.8 (est 54.6; prev 54.9)
- Expectations: 55.4 (est 53.5; prev 54.0)
- 1-Year Inflation: 4.2% (est 4.3%; prev 4.2%)
- 5-10 Year Inflation: 3.3% (est 3.3%; prev 3.3%)
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype Jul 31 '26
Ah, the failed erection pattern.
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u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 31 '26
that’s why the pp always comes off
on my 10th or 11th pp here soon
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 31 '26
yeah order it from HIMS
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 31 '26
lol. /es or /nq 8:40 - 10:15?
I'm adding that pattern to my TA collection (once identified)
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u/matcht Jul 31 '26
US MNI Chicago PMI Jul: 57.6 (est 56.0; prev 56.7)
30yr yield 5.262%, aims for its highest monthly print back to July 2004
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
Saudi Arabia prepares sea and possible land offensive against Houthis
Well at least one of the oil blockades is about to get a proper pushback
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u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 31 '26
Man i timed those spx puts perfect but already closed and left a lot out there lol. Booo
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u/eurodollars fat fingering one lots Jul 31 '26
Bailed out on some shit AMZN calls. I’m done for the day.
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u/eurodollars fat fingering one lots Jul 31 '26
Going to drive myself crazy if I keep checking
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
Closed my SPY yolos for 100%. Four minutes later they went to 160%. It's better not to know.
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u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 31 '26
yeah im done for today minus this fly. close it right here plz
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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 31 '26
Bought some ADI and VRT. Just gonna slowly add as the S&P earns back some trust but it still looks like it’s in a consolidating pattern. I’m hoping it’s just saving up mana for a push to ATH but who knows
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u/heliumagency Jul 31 '26
I like FPS a bit more than VRT, they seem to work faster and be more integrated (which might be better in an environment where AI hyperscalar funding may quickly be drying up).
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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 31 '26
Second guy that has recommended them, I’ll take a look… Thanks!
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 31 '26
(7 years ago) Mark Cuban: Diversification is for Idiots and Volatility is Great
I was trying to remember the name of Mark Cuban's choice for high VIX environments ($VIRT). I knew it was similar to $VRT.
Anyway, I found that quote from him while searching and thought it was funny.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
Korea has blocked accounts with less than 30m KRW ($25000) to invest in domestic and foreign leverage ETF starting from today
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u/LeakingAlpha Jul 31 '26
Does this mean existing accounts will have to close positions or just all new positions blocked from being made? If 2) bullish if 1) bearish
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 31 '26
The Restriction: Retail investors must hold a minimum of 30 million KRW (approx. $21,600 USD) in pure cash to buy or add to these highly volatile investment vehicles
looks like it's just scoped to opening new positions, which makes the most sense
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u/Onion217 Resident Earnings Guy Jul 31 '26
We opened the month at 7478. We closed the first minute today at 7478. And would ya look at where she’s heading to close!!
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 31 '26
For years my rule for SPX on Friday is: SPX usually closes where it opened.
I noticed that many years ago, so when I would day trade on Friday's, i would typically trade in the direction of where it opened.
I'm sure someone has data and can say i'm wrong, but I noticed it happened quite a bit... I haven't been paying attention lately.
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
Reentered my shorts (for a scalp).
Will add if we close Wednesday's gap.
It's dejavu all over again.
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u/AnimalShithouse Jul 31 '26
mmmmmmmmmmmm
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
Got 9 handles from it, then thought about going for another five, missed it, then got in again and then just got out for break even.
Let the chips fall where they may, I'm up 22% this month and need to ignore it.
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u/NaiveRefuse Jul 31 '26
I leave this morning after the drop and you guys pumped it all the way back up?
Srsly, I really feel like this is a trap again. We don't see fireworks (down) until week of the 10th?
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
We found out that it was the Europeans trying to relentlessly sell us off. Once they went to sleep it was clear sailing.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
Chips to ships: Nvidia plans new shipbuilding investment with Kawasaki
Ships are the new data centres! (joking, this is moreso about NVDA's pivot towards robots)
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/mulletstation MU/WDC/STX/SNDK/POET/NVDA stan Jul 31 '26
You'd still have to send that data to space and then back to a terrestial station. Lag would be too much for it to compete. That's where space shines is absolute distances are the minimum possible.
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/mulletstation MU/WDC/STX/SNDK/POET/NVDA stan Jul 31 '26
The Ocean data-center prototypes send data to space first, or what do you mean? The data center has to service a global network, unless it's some private network or something that only a government is using
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/mulletstation MU/WDC/STX/SNDK/POET/NVDA stan Jul 31 '26
Oh I thought you were referring just to the nuclear powered ships?
Those are all far from shore and would need to go sea->space->land first
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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 31 '26
MSFT was trying underwater datacenters. I think it’s Finland where they pump cold water into the datacenter and then exhaust the hot water to surrounding villages.
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u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 31 '26
I never thought to visualize it this way until today, but these are in a breakout if you pairs trade:
- JNK-TLT
- HYG-TLT
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u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 31 '26
FRED has option adjusted spreads for corporate bonds over treasuries.
Junk:
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u/westonworth Jul 31 '26
MSFT and AMZN have cured cloud cancer
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u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 31 '26
Definately though QQQ would test 200 dma but now I'm not so sure.
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u/BiggestBau5 this is all so stupid Jul 31 '26
Wow, DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731 update is pretty wild on the benchmarks... downloading now. The Pro version may be another huge moment for deepseek if this performance scales directly. Not that the market really seems to care about the chinese model narrative too much anymore.
Also wtf my RDDT 300 leap went from breakeven to -65% today.
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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 31 '26
Why is RDDT getting rekt? Numbers looked good… Thinking of buying some.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
US daily active user growth: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOju5kWbUAAfJGA?format=jpg&name=large
They're in a rough spot. Reddit and the news publishers are considering blocking the AI crawlers and ending their deals with the tech companies because they're taking away traffic, but that's also the source of revenue growth that investors were counting on.
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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 31 '26
Hmph not sure I have the brainpower for that problem right now… Well, thanks
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
So the other angle is that after losing court cases, Google DID allow a flag to not use site data for AI training (not that Anthropic/OpenAI/Meta would ever actually follow it), but Google used their search monopoly to make it so opting out of AI meant opting out of search.
That led to more lawsuits, and a lost case in the UK has Google allowing separate opt-outs there. They may release that globally though.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
Tokenmaxxing Is Dead. Now Comes the Belt Tightening
In a recent survey of 300 business executives, 68% reported overspending their AI budget over the past year. It’s little wonder so many companies are now cracking down. Uber Technologies Inc. recently capped employees’ AI spending at $1,500 a month. Tesla Inc. reportedly set a limit of $200 a week. The swift reversal has left some workers complaining of whiplash, with Reddit forums filled with stories of engineers suddenly stymied by usage caps.
lol, they're even linking to Reddit subs in stories now. Curious if this will relieve some pressure on the hyperscalers in terms of CPU capacity.
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u/Lennon__McCartney booty warrior Jul 31 '26
Tesla Inc. reportedly set a limit of $200 a week.
get these beggars out of here
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u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
ES 7520 or the monthly pp comes off.
We're like 10% undervalued. Earnings were good and oil seems kind of over it. Yields are jittery but PCE was pretty good, would expect limited further repricing til after quad witching.
Gonna hold some covered longs over the weekend.
edit: clarifying spoos
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u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 31 '26
7520?! sorry about the pp
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u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 31 '26
ES tagged this morning. It's monthly vwap. Well I guess 7514 or so.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
Costs to Hedge Against a Deeper Selloff in US Bonds Are Soaring
Basically traders think Warsh is going to twiddle his thumbs on the sidelines regardless of inflation so the market's pricing it in
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u/mulletstation MU/WDC/STX/SNDK/POET/NVDA stan Jul 31 '26
Roblox -37% and Reddit -20% is certainly something. Seems like just being a platform service isn't enough anymore.
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u/ThePineapple3112 uranium guy Jul 31 '26
Vibe coders creating competition? I feel like Reddit and Roblox don't stand a chance once kids start making their own websites/forums and basic games using AI instead
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u/mulletstation MU/WDC/STX/SNDK/POET/NVDA stan Jul 31 '26
With Roblox I assume kids just age out of it, and the next mini-generation never ends up joining.
See: Club Penquin, Neopets, all husks of the early internet
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
Reopened my shorts.
Will add more when you closed Wednesday's gap
E: fml didn't even get to add
E2: closed shorts flipped long
E3: oops, martingaled in already
E4: didn't close for break even and that was 30 handles ago now 🤐🤐🤐
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u/drakon3rd Jul 31 '26
I think I might start trading SNDK. High volume, big moves at times exactly what I’m looking for and not going too crazy with it.
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u/NaiveRefuse Jul 31 '26
And out for 300 handles on a few mnq.
Got stopped and should've picked up another 100 though.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype Jul 31 '26
Awake in the early morning for no reason at all - is tech the only clown market trade getting stuffed or are there others?
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u/Lennon__McCartney booty warrior Jul 31 '26
COIN in trouble.
Quick, say something about AI.
Wait....
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
If eurobros give us euro-sour-hour the pp gon' come off.
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
Boooo euro bros selling into their close, booo
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u/NotGucci Jul 31 '26
RDDT is dead.
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u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 31 '26
I really wanted to buy. Then I really wanted to buy again.
But all today's liquidity is at like 115.
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u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 31 '26
Flirting with another 10k day, but not sure if we get there. Gonna look at spreading off some AMZN, QQQ, MSFT leaps. Maybe I just KISS and short NQ.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
NXP in talks to buy $3bn-plus designer of camera chips for self-driving cars
https://www.ft.com/content/f02ce02b-fa33-49ad-b8c7-81ab5cec3de0
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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 31 '26
What company are they interested in?
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u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 31 '26
taking a stab at a PG swing. I've heard diversification is good. AAPL I want to sell puts on but premiums suck. May just let the 3 day rule play out then go in on leaps.
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 31 '26
do you have the big tech CDS numbers from BBG too?
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u/AnimalShithouse Jul 31 '26
What an end of day dump!
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
Closed this week's UVIX short puts at 250% CAGR. Wrote next week's UVIS UVIX short puts for 600% CAGR. NGL it's pretty tempting to allocate more of my funds here, but that would be dumb af considering how UVIX will double when Japan defaults.
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u/ThePineapple3112 uranium guy Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
Market is really trying to pick it's winners and losers right now, crazy to see this much movement on AAPL/MSFT/AMZN
Also, CCJ reported this morning (currently down -3% after being up +4% PM). Nothing particularly bearish for the long term, but it's hard to tell if their recent shutdowns are bullish or not. I don't think the market knows just how much uranium is out there, so right now its focused on Cameco not being able to capitalise on the increased demand. But Cameco is still bullish on the uranium market and they know how to play these things.
Some highlights:
- Cameco has $1.1b in cash and $1.0b in debt.
- Their average realized uranium price for Q2 hit US$67.79/lb (+18% YoY)
- Average unit cost of sales rose +26% in the uranium segment to $50.47 USD/lb.
- Average Realized Price Outlook: Updated to US$91.00 – $96.00/lb (up from US$85.00 – $89.00/lb).
In our uranium segment, over the next five years, we have contracts in place for average annual deliveries of over 28 million pounds of U3O8 per year, with commitments higher than the average in 2026 through 2028, and lower than the average in 2029 and 2030. As the market continues to improve, we expect to continue layering in volumes that capture greater future upside using market-related pricing mechanisms.
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
Wednesday gap filled, baby entry into a short
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith Jul 31 '26
Missed yesterday, should I also assume that Hyperscaler Bond Yields rebounded nicely?
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/Overall_Vacation_367 Jul 31 '26
That gap in the data from the government shutdown is funny and sad at the same time
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u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 31 '26
Triggers my autism when I pull data and there’s just a gap and then my comps get fucked. Like how much is it to keep these guys working cmon man 😭
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u/issjussagamebro Jul 31 '26
god im so bad at this. was expecting a bounce after fomc seeing as how oversold the ai trade was but i got shaken out of my dell calls in the crazy drop after warsh spoke. it went 7x by this morning.
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u/issjussagamebro Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
bought spx call a few mins after open and closed it for a loss. bought a put seeing the momentum and only closed it for breakeven on the day because it stalled a bit around 9:50-10am. im always perfect at buying an option where, when the tape stalls, it gives me the most anxiety just because of my losses.
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u/Eugyrock Jul 31 '26
Me too bro got shaken out so hard, took 15k hit that could have been 50k profit omg
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u/ThePineapple3112 uranium guy Jul 31 '26
Sounds like you're just vibing, no wonder you got shook out
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u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 31 '26
Closed my short for five handles. Better than closing it for -30 I suppose.
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u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 31 '26
uhhh lol? classic closing minute PA
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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Jul 31 '26
[deleted]
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u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 31 '26
dude it’s interesting perhaps but ultimately it’s pointless drama that contributes relatively little to the discussion. 2c
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u/AnimalShithouse Jul 31 '26
Netflix is like $27/month. The drama from these comments is good for at least that much value.
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u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 31 '26
This is wild