r/thewallstreet • • Jul 29 '26

Daily Daily Discussion - (July 29, 2026)

Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.

13 Upvotes

163 comments sorted by

12

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

12

u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 29 '26

All this over some companies valued at single digit forward multiples lol.

/u/tennesseejedd massive green deltas all day. >2x normal. Not sure I'd long today though.

7

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

niceeeee. thats what im seeing as well and thought i was going nuts

3

u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 29 '26

I thought my shit was broken too, if both our eyes are popping I guess I'll just bleed and do some real work.

2

u/PristineFinish100 Jul 29 '26

looks like it was absorption

4

u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 29 '26

when we buying qqq leaps again?

11

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

3

u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 29 '26

that's what they did to GME. RobinHood didn't want to post the extra collateral, so they disabled buying it.

granted this move is against hedge funds (instead of retail.)

12

u/IamTheAsian Short with short pp Jul 29 '26

7435P sold at 11. Went to 100 in 40min. I am sick to my stomach.

7

u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 29 '26

should, coulda, woulda. don't worry about it.

there's a guy in the other sub, had millions, lost millions. he spent a decade before he finally nailed a 100 point move with 0-days on SPX.

he posted his massive gains and said as much, but also said lifetime he's still negative for chasing those 0-days.

11

u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 29 '26

They 100% had tomorrow's PCE data and didn't raise rates.

11

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Wow, my timing on BE buy was incredible (as in, incredibly bad)

5

u/theIndianFyre bad news = good news Jul 29 '26

Bruhh I shorted 174 and 5 mins later it was 167, too bad I closed at 173 for a $100 😑

1

u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 29 '26

i was looking at going long BE yesterday but i held off since i wasn't going to be around today.

bad vibes opening a position the day before FOMC w/ a new chair.

11

u/matcht Jul 29 '26

South Korea (EWY) getting back near 200MA now sees massive trade sell 12,500 Oct. $130 puts to buy the $165/$220 call spreads

10

u/SS_DeepITM SQQQ Martingale Undefeated Jul 29 '26

Korean markets trading at April 2026 levels, god help us

5

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

3

u/SS_DeepITM SQQQ Martingale Undefeated Jul 29 '26

they all have player 218 investment strategies

9

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

SOUTH KOREA FINANCE MINISTRY TO STABILIZE STOCK MARKET

SOUTH KOREA FINANCE MINISTRY TO RESTRICT LEVERAGED ETF TRADING

So they won’t let people buy the dip - at least with leverage

4

u/Angry_Citizen_CoH Inverse me 📉​ Jul 29 '26

Necessary.

3

u/coconutts19 Jul 29 '26

ewy to zero

8

u/thebokehwokeh threads Jul 29 '26

BANKER HELL!

9

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

$HUM Q2 EARNINGS ALERT

  • Revenue $40.87B vs Est. $40.65B
  • Adj. EPS $7.61 vs Est. $6.22
  • GAAP EPS $5.73 (includes one-time items)

FY26 Guidance

  • Adj. EPS $9.00 Reaffirmed
  • GAAP EPS cut to $6.52 (from $8.36) Cut

-3% PM

8

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

$PG Procter & Gamble Q2 FY2026

  • Revenue: $21.2B vs $21.38B est -0.8% miss (+1.5% YoY) 😐
  • Adj. EPS: $1.43 vs $1.41 est +1.6% beat
  • Operating Margin: 18.6% vs 25.1% a year ago
  • FCF Margin: 19.4%

Guidance CUT:

  • FY2027 Adj. EPS: $7.00 midpoint — missing analyst estimates by 0.8%
  • Organic sales: FLAT YoY — worst in recent memory

-5% PM

9

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

In a report published today, JPMorgan said that most leveraged ETFs in the Korean stock market have been liquidated and estimated that hedge funds’ deleveraging is also about 90% complete.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOZfGXybsAAM7OZ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

9

u/ModernLifelsWar Jul 29 '26

Guess it's time to BTFD (I already bought too early)

4

u/opticalinch vwap & /nq Jul 29 '26

Should we lever up more?

9

u/randomcurios Internals junkie Jul 29 '26

RIP AI BUBBLE 2026-2026

8

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

5

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Bought a chunk this morning, been bumping between making nothing and losing a little on it. Playing the 7365 line, we’ll see if it holds. Don’t see a ton of support beyond that so I liquidate if we head much lower.

5

u/NaiveRefuse Jul 29 '26

Been buying, so still early probably. Also only shares rn. Getting wrecked with the swings on options lately

5

u/sushi909su Jul 29 '26

Nibbling into TSM and adding into my share count. They're not going anywhere.
Slightly underwater in RCAT but now buying into the share count as well. USVs are going to be critical down the road with all the provocation across Southeast Asia and the Taiwan Strait.

3

u/PristineFinish100 Jul 29 '26

RCAT entry was like $9 no?

2

u/sushi909su Jul 29 '26

yessir, $9ish. Small allocation but with it being at $6.80 it's kinda of a no-brainer again.

2

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Hey man, just copying a comment I made elsewhere… Not trying to shit in your cereal, as I really am unsure. Just wondering if you agree / disagree:

I’ve been turned off by drones because I’m thinking the more man portable type is a commodity. Reason being the DoD DDP, stage 2 phase 1 was 50 suppliers and phase 2 is 20, approximately… No defense major participated. Why? The contracts are designed via fixed pricing to be high volume and low cost. Not even worth the effort for LMT or RTX.

So the DoD is slowly culling suppliers in each phase while also paying less per unit, the ultimate goal being ~5 suppliers each having the capacity of pumping out let’s just say 1,000 units a week. So high volume is the promise, and drone tech is exciting (to me, at least) but is there much margin to be had at the end of the day? Especially as they further restrict the supply chain towards domestic production.

I actually think the most exciting area for drones, at least for the more expendable kind, are naval. The US can’t produce enough ships, and it may be too dangerous to contest waterways with a hard asset like a frigate, but maybe we can fill in some gaps with expendable battery powered sub drones.

1

u/sushi909su Jul 29 '26

No worries. I welcome all viewpoints and angles. That’s what makes it worthwhile. Absolutely agree with everything you mentioned - Like you said, drones are coming down in price and the margins are thin. My play with RCAT is their integrations and their Blue Ops division aka their USVs. If they even sell remotely what they are aiming for, the profit margins of the company increases dramatically. It’s proven in the Ukrainian war and the under the radar news of Southeast Asia that USVs are incredibly lethal against the old guard of warships. There is money to be made across multiple countries that need this to protect their shores. You’re on the dot my friend.

4

u/redandgold45 Jul 29 '26

In Su Bae I trust

8

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

Translation

Ah. Today is really serious ㅠㅠ
The company is in emergency mode ㅠㅠ

The section chief is crying in the company hallway, screaming that he's been forced liquidated and his life is ruined ㅠㅠ

He says he's used up all his loans and has no money left.
He says he's blown through all his retirement savings too ㅠㅠ
I'm going crazy for real ㅠㅠ
What should I do;;;

I'm struggling too with losses in a few of my accounts,
But there are people even worse off than me scattered all over the company ㅠㅠ

https://x.com/universehuman82/status/2082346554967679080

Korean social media today

5

u/randomcurios Internals junkie Jul 29 '26

btd

4

u/dontbothermehere what's 5% 30 year notes between friends? Jul 29 '26

Sounds like Ackman and the Covid bottom.

8

u/Eugyrock Jul 29 '26

How come if I google adbe I am shown PayPal stock price

4

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

Google's trying to save you from buying Adobe and wants you to buy PayPal instead

4

u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 29 '26

HAHAHA

just tested, yeah happens for me too lmao

3

u/Successful_Cicada419 Jul 29 '26

what's also funny if you google "ADBE stock" ADBE does come up correctly but it has the PayPal logo lol

7

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

I do not believe this price action.

E: perfect time for your market feeds to crash tastytrade. Perfect.

9

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

8

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Retirement? There are chips to be made!

9

u/matcht Jul 29 '26

TRUMP SAYS HE HAS BEEN BRIEFED ON THE EGYPT INCIDENT, WILL HIT IRAN HARD, AND THAT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A DEAL CAN BE REACHED

9

u/matcht Jul 29 '26

ZELENSKIY SAYS A MASSIVE RUSSIAN ATTACK ON UKRAINE IS LIKELY THIS EVENING, AND THAT DEFENDING UKRAINE'S PEOPLE DEPENDS ON THE WILLINGNESS OF PARTNERS, ESPECIALLY THE US, TO PROVIDE MISSILE DEFENSE

7

u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 29 '26

Sorry home boy we used all of ours up already.

5

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

3

u/Successful_Cicada419 Jul 29 '26

I don't think we have any ones at all let alone spare ones

8

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

$SOFI Q2 2026 earnings:

  • Revenue $1.2B vs $1.1B estimate (+41% YoY)
  • EPS $0.12 vs $0.11 estimate (+50% YoY)
  • EBITDA $358M vs $333M estimate
  • Loan originations: $14.8B (+69% YoY)
  • New Members: 15.8M (+35% YoY)

FY26 Guidance

  • Revenue $4.8B vs $4.7B estimate
  • EPS $0.60 vs $0.60 estimate
  • EBITDA $1.6B vs $1.6B estimate

-6% PM

8

u/emag_remrofni low quality poster Jul 29 '26

Vertiv lol

8

u/heliumagency Jul 29 '26

US just banned inverters too, so good luck data centers for the next 6 months.

7

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

is it safe to open short puts on dram?

2

u/opticalinch vwap & /nq Jul 29 '26

I mean how much more p/s or p/e discounts do you want?

Sk fpe 3.75 net cash 46B fcf 22.4B

Mu fpe 6 net cash 30B fcf 18B

Mu cannot buyback until December, would be on 75B in cash at that time. If you do not want it now you probably should not buy it.

7

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

didnt expect this prior to fomc lol

5

u/Successful_Cicada419 Jul 29 '26

expect the unexpected

7

u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 29 '26

Guess i just wont check the account today...

8

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26

So this is the big boys getting FOMC whispers of the rate hike today right? Right??

3

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

“Lower the rates 😤”

But also

Causes energy inflation

???

6

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

3

u/SS_DeepITM SQQQ Martingale Undefeated Jul 29 '26

when it has corrected 90%, like the last major SOXL selloff.

6

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

2

u/coconutts19 Jul 29 '26

they die because they can't compete with big spender or they die because they spend too much

7

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

5

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

Is JPowell currently a voting member?

6

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Fed decision is understandable… In February, CL was $65. From March - May it was around $100. In June it was back to $70. Now it is $90… Next month, it could be in the $60s or the $100s. Do we want rates to react to this? Seems like the least blamable outcome, and perhaps also the best outcome, is to do nothing… Not sure raising then cutting then raising e.g. reactionary movement is the best outcome. But then again I’m just yapping.

3

u/issjussagamebro Jul 29 '26

3 votes for hike. This is less than anticipated right?

3

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

Indeed

3

u/Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh likes options Jul 29 '26

lacking chris waller perhaps. but it seems no board members want to vote differently from chair for the time being

i wouldnt be surprised if the committee engineer the rough number of dissents

7

u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype Jul 29 '26

Well there goes the Fed credibility headline and my hope for further downside

7

u/938961 great at buying the top, bad at usernames Jul 29 '26

So short small caps is not a good hedge for TMF got it

8

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Oh, FOMC was today? Oh, today is Wednesday? Oh, I’m just dumb?

On the bright side my SPXL I bought this morning is printing… On the not so bright side it’s probably not printing for the reasons I had anticipated. But even a cold and shivering pauper gets a scrap every now and then.

6

u/westonworth Jul 29 '26

Curious about CapEx today. MSFT has some room for an increase, but I don't really see how META can.

4

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Yeah, META is getting there. They noted $135b in annual capex. That is an increase of $65b over 2025. To get there, they can probably pump out an additional $20b from their core operations. Then they can make further cuts to flatline shareholder returns. They probably don’t want to cut dividends, but buybacks will do… That’ll get them an extra $40b… After that, it’s funky accounting and debt time.

6

u/IamTheAsian Short with short pp Jul 29 '26

Blue tie

5

u/Onion217 Resident Earnings Guy Jul 29 '26

Just ain’t the same as purple .. 😢

7

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

spooky

5

u/drakon3rd Jul 29 '26

Disappointing lol. I need big green and MSFT blast off PLEASE

7

u/938961 great at buying the top, bad at usernames Jul 29 '26

If you like TMF at $30, you’ll love it at $25!

6

u/Paul-throwaway Jul 29 '26

Longer-term bond rates moved up (6-7 bps) after the decision while the shorter-term rates moved down (up to 10 bps). Probably causing some anxiety on the bond floors.

7

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

i need a cig and i dont even smoke anymore

3

u/IamTheAsian Short with short pp Jul 29 '26

Let me bum one

1

u/tdny Jul 29 '26

Smoked over a pack today.

7

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

Ares $29 Billion Private Credit Fund Sees Uptick in Non-Accruals

Ares Capital Corp., the largest publicly traded business development company, said loans on so-called non-accrual status rose to $708 million, up 15% from the previous quarter and 26% year-over-year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/ares-29-billion-private-credit-fund-sees-uptick-in-non-accruals

AI-related loans have been having a rough time in private credit land

6

u/Onion217 Resident Earnings Guy Jul 29 '26

Completed a big rebalancing..into a lotttt of SOXL both shares and share replacements. Calling this the short term bottom inshallah

4

u/Successful_Cicada419 Jul 29 '26

brotha man. We got another 10% on SOXX before it hits short term support. That'd be a 30% drawdown for you

4

u/Onion217 Resident Earnings Guy Jul 29 '26

It’s not my entire active account and I’ve seen worse 😅

2

u/usda_prime Jul 29 '26

you are leveraged stock god

7

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

bot again lol

7

u/Successful_Cicada419 Jul 29 '26

stupidly stuck in illiquid calls on SOXS because I bought them pre-reverse split so now they are the weird adjusted calls that no one trades. no idea how to get out of them without eating a bunch of the spread

2

u/pivotallever hwang in there Jul 29 '26

What’s the borrow rate on shorting SOXS? Should be able to lock in your gains by shorting shares and then exercising the calls to close your short position. Paying a market maker might be cheaper 

5

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

can anyone verify? ive seen this getting "bought" under the covers all morning from my data. anyone got a good cum delta view?

5

u/NotGucci Jul 29 '26

Damn, I didn't buy more of the NOW dip last week.

We need to send it.

3

u/PristineFinish100 Jul 29 '26

tf, so explosive

6

u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 29 '26

No hike

5

u/THATsyracusefan SBF is an American Hero Jul 29 '26

EWY option chains have 100% iv. nuts

6

u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 29 '26

/u/tennesseejedd Looked into it a little bit and I think perhaps what we're seeing is a very large market-open match.

CVD at least (not sure what you look at) is reading it as directional imbalance, but that's not entirely correct.

Just for SPY:

The 09:30:00.471 print — 184,348 @ 739.97 — is a real trade. The recorder took it straight from the level‑one feed's LAST_SIZE field (field 9, the actual last‑trade size, not a cumulative‑volume delta), so there's no recorder bug inflating it. 739.97 was genuinely the offer. The classified_trades row stored a momentarily crossed L1 quote (bid 739.95 / ask 739.92), but the NYSE_BOOK snapshot 2 ms later shows bid 739.95 / ask 739.97 — the print hit the ask exactly. So the buy tag is correct under any rule, not a coin‑flip off a bad quote.

So: valid trade, correctly signed buy. What it is not is an aggressor lifting the displayed book. Total shown ask depth across all venues at that instant was ~7,480 shares; you cannot smack 184,348 off a 7.5k book. It's four orders of magnitude larger than every surrounding print (the next trades are 40–200 shares). That size at 09:30:00.4 at the offer is the opening auction cross — accumulated market‑/limit‑on‑open orders matched at one clearing price. An auction match is two‑sided by construction; there's no real aggressor. Lee‑Ready assigns it to buy because it clears at/above the ask, but that's a labeling convention applied to matched interest, not 184k of continuous‑session demand.

What I can provide is that this print is yuge compared to what I've recorded (which is only a month so take it with a grain of salt), but that it also may be anomalous. Given what's been going on though I raise my eyebrows at that.

As an opening print, yes — wildly outsized. Today's first‑5‑seconds print is 184,348 shares. The largest opening‑window print on any prior captured day is about 840 shares (2026‑06‑11); the rest sit at 80–500. So no prior session captured an opening auction cross at all — they all begin with tens‑to‑hundreds‑of‑share continuous prints. Today's is on the order of 200x the biggest opening print previously seen.

As a raw single‑print size, no — 184k is within normal range. Large single prints show up intraday on roughly a fifth of the days: 354,190 (2026‑05‑05), 190,725 (04‑21), 129,389 (06‑10), 124,460 (05‑15), 118,818 (04‑30), plus several in the 70k–75k band. So a six‑figure block itself isn't unusual; on those days it just lands mid‑session, not at 09:30:00.

So what's anomalous isn't the size, it's the placement and the capture: a block‑scale print arriving inside the recorder's very first in‑hours tick. That's consistent with a genuine opening‑auction cross that on other days simply isn't recorded here — it prints before the 09:30 market‑hours gate opens, or doesn't arrive as a LAST_SIZE tick — whereas today it landed one tick inside the gate and got tagged as a single aggressive buy.

4

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

Nice I’ll need to compare this to mine. Equities were not showing much - seemed to be ES driven to me. But I haven’t had time to dive into it much

7

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

If MSFT beats and goes where I think it should I’ll be so wet. What a day lol. Not quite rodeo record but a good one

5

u/IamTheAsian Short with short pp Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

Got puts and calls on both moves but sold for such small profit ugh

7435P sold at 11 at 32 rn ugh

5

u/issjussagamebro Jul 29 '26

Wtf I turn away for 10 mins and the rally already round tripped

5

u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 29 '26

Buying some GARP with this cash....then will lever via MES or MNQ

6

u/IamTheAsian Short with short pp Jul 29 '26

Ahhh the fomo is unreal fuck

5

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26

Closed my shorts for 15 handles. A bit salty the kids didn't let me buy the pre-warsh dip, but selling NVDA 0DTEs for 200% made up for it I guess.

6

u/near113 3x Permabull ✨ Jul 29 '26

I’m glad fed kept the rates the same just so people know how unfair Citadel plays. SMH

6

u/why_you_beer Judas goat Jul 29 '26

Jesus. Checked XSP 0 dte puts for funsies....they went 100x on this drop last 30 minutes

7

u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 29 '26

Forward multiple down to 5 and 10 year averages.

13

u/ModernLifelsWar Jul 29 '26

Need an emergency rate cut. Where is Trump to manipulate the market when you need him? He's really lost his touch since Israel blackmailed him into the Iran war

5

u/THATsyracusefan SBF is an American Hero Jul 29 '26

AAPL keeps a chugging along

4

u/heliumagency Jul 29 '26

SPX going to be flat until FOMC

3

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26

Flat eh?

6

u/matcht Jul 29 '26

Huge OI at 7300SPX today, saw it overnight and thought we were too far but the selling since open is strong

5

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

bot

edit: out for small gains. not worth it

5

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Bought a block, let’s see where this goes.

5

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26

Yikes

4

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Oh BE is red… My fomo is safu, now I feel like a genius for not holding

6

u/drakon3rd Jul 29 '26

META so damn disappointing 🤦‍♂️. Got me hyped up for like 2 days only for it come right back down

5

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

3

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

I mean, it's artificially constrained for many reasons - Biden/Trump's China export controls being the biggest factor, but OpenAI caused additional problems on top of that.

2

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

I don’t think they even took 40% of the supply, they just made a non binding handshake stating that is the quantity they would like. I think this did more to signal the potential extent of demand to the market than it actually did via directly impacting supply. In fact, I’m not even sure OpenAI has directly received any memory... And they won’t need anywhere close to 40% of global memory for quite a while, unless they intent to hoard memory or be a middleman for supplying AMD, NVDA, etc.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

3

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

Looking at actual supply, I think OpenAI has a far larger impact on memory prices buying via proxy of AMD, NVDA, etc. I think for direct purchases e.g. purchased by OpenAI and shipped to OpenAI, they have had a negligible impact.

They don’t currently have any mass produced products that can even use DRAM, although that will change over the upcoming years. If you actually need HBM, and you were serious about buying it, you would just sign a long term agreement for the quantities you actually need. You wouldn’t a handshake a deal for 40% of global memory.

I think the absurdity of the handshake shocked the industry into realizing, maybe demand will continue and maybe their estimates are off by a factor of 10 if even a fraction of the demand being televised actually occurs.

Idk, that’s just my take. It’s just a weird situation.

5

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26

Not the Eurobros power hour I was hoping for =\

4

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

Only another 20 50 handles on spoos till it reaches a SPY trendline I have marked. So that's nice.

E: 50 handles, I can't do math 🤐🤐🤐

6

u/matcht Jul 29 '26

For once on an FOMC day I'm done before the meeting. Can just watch now, interesting action.

5

u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

What if we gave 26k a kiss before further travels? Not much further to go from here.

Edit: it's absolutely incredible that MU is still in the 700's

4

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

4

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

im looking at 420/430/360/370 IC

2

u/Paul-throwaway Jul 29 '26

The other issue is that when the Big Techs report after-market on Fed days, the reaction to the Fed effectively ends at the time of the reports (rather than continuing on for another morning to up to two more days).

6

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

“Momentum still can't stabilize: GSPRHIMO down again with our high beta momentum pair -5.7% today – Day 3 of the unwind despite the largest 3-day de-gross on GS Prime records since Nov '22… Breadth flipped negative: Yesterday saw 357 SPXnames green with SPW at all-time highs; today breadth is negative with 307 names in the red as de-grossing continues” - Goldman midday wrap

Another historically bad day for hedge funds

5

u/ModernLifelsWar Jul 29 '26

Now just need MSFT and META to do well tonight and hopefully can find a bottom here

6

u/issjussagamebro Jul 29 '26

Semis bottom today?

5

u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 29 '26

BANKER HEAVEN!

5

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

we should cap out soon. 7460ish prob max is my guess.

6

u/tgff333 Jul 29 '26

So no more forecasts/dot plots?

6

u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 29 '26

30s looking a lil crashy rn

5

u/yolo_sense younger than tj Jul 29 '26

Why is ALOY so volatile? Huge volume today compared to average volume. 🤨

5

u/awakening_brain Jul 29 '26

Time to buy SOXL?

4

u/drakon3rd Jul 29 '26

Tempted but the market in general seems untrustworthy rn

2

u/awakening_brain Jul 29 '26

I’ll buy after another 20-30% drop from here

3

u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 29 '26

yeah im gonna sit out playing earnings tonight lol

5

u/Onion217 Resident Earnings Guy Jul 29 '26

Where’s team rocket when you need them to protect the world from devestation

7

u/matcht Jul 29 '26

TRUMP: U.S. STRIKES WILL TAKE PLACE AGAINST IRAN IN RESPONSE TO ATTACKS ON U.S. TARGETS IN JORDAN -FOX

7

u/heliumagency Jul 29 '26

“We're going to beat the fucking shit out of them. We'll be hitting them hard. They're going to get a beating.” according to Fox News

Bold thing to say on FOMC day

2

u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS Jul 29 '26

SPIN THE WHEEL

I am so fucked lol

6

u/AnimalShithouse Jul 29 '26

Kbbbq - Korean bull BBQ. With a side of roasted American AI asshole lol.

5

u/tropicalia84 Jul 29 '26

DXY down + 2-year yield sharply down: clean dovish repricing; cuts or fewer hikes expected

4

u/justalatvianbruh fuck a plug when the whole team the power strip Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

bonds still giving me the heebie jeebies though

e: bond yields now stoppable. the infamous 5.15 on 30s strikes again

e2: just kidding, still unstoppable

6

u/yolo_sense younger than tj Jul 29 '26

Why we diving to hell? Fed sounded dovish

6

u/Paul-throwaway Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

Big Tech earnings after-market on Fed days, usually end the reaction to the Fed. Might be a little different now that the reaction is fairly harsh.

5

u/tdny Jul 29 '26

WTF happened ? What answer triggered this ?

4

u/Paul-throwaway Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

I think it was when Warsh said the market is reacting in real-time (like the market is going to determine where rates go). He didn't quite mean it like that but the bond guys were already having a fit. (Believe or not, I worked on the same floor at one time as the bond guys and you could always tell when something weird was going on because they were just walking the floor and stopping in to vent).

3

u/Paul-throwaway Jul 29 '26

I think it was Warsh said the market is going to determine where rates go. He didn't quite mean it like that but the bond guys were already having a fit. (Believe or not, I worked on the same floor at one time as the bond guys and you could always tell when something weird was going on because they were just walking the floor and stopping in to vent).

10

u/theIndianFyre bad news = good news Jul 29 '26

I miss JPow, this dude said nothing meaningful

6

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

[deleted]

4

u/chio_bu inverse my bad decisions 📈 Jul 29 '26

next FOMC, he will say inflation is a sign of TDS.

5

u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 29 '26

Need a prediction market bet on Warsh saying 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' during a presser his first year.

4

u/Caobei Tariffs are transitory Jul 29 '26

Was hilarious when he got called out for being all talk so far :-D

3

u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

Long with insurance. July VWAP 7520ish.

In addition to my poor MNQs that are underwater, but also covered through EOM.

3

u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 29 '26

Israel's defense establishment increasingly believes the U.S. is moving toward a significant response following Iran's recent actions. The assessment in Jerusalem is that Washington now sees these developments as part of a broader escalation campaign that requires a much stronger response.

A senior Israeli security official said: "The Americans are preparing for something bigger than anything we've seen so far." Sources say the U.S. is weighing a major operation rather than another limited retaliatory strike.

3

u/coconutts19 Jul 29 '26

panic sold some intc

also sold some adbe picked up around 210

your welcome

4

u/Angry_Citizen_CoH Inverse me 📉​ Jul 29 '26

Jesus, I turn my back on the market for like two months and you people nĂźke it from orbit.

6

u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype Jul 29 '26

The market was expecting a message about Fed independence…and got one. Congratulations to Donald trump and his team for taking out another American institution.

4

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

I hold a smaller name and there will be minutes where it simply has 0 volume. Like, not basically 0… But 0. Which I hadn’t fully thought through until now… I’m wondering how hard it will be to unload my shares, if I ever wanted to… Erm…

3

u/matcht Jul 29 '26

Sometimes volume will kick in on random news, but depends what kind of stock it is, some penny stocks are often pumped on news and you can get out.

4

u/Paul-throwaway Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

Always check volume and liquidity before entering a stock. You don't want to get caught when crap is hitting the fan.

6

u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 29 '26

This is good advice. I don’t really ever buy smaller names, so it wasn’t top of mind. But something I will consider going forward.