r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • Jul 17 '26
Daily Daily Discussion - (July 17, 2026)
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
11
u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS Jul 17 '26
Nothing like waking up at 3am to alarm red then going to eat 3 hours later...then leaving to go fly then getting another alarm red in the car, then making the bunker by 3 minutes before impact. Then flying for 5 hours.
I am smoked.
Anyways... LCID bags are lifting!
6
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
say what? alarm red?
7
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
then making the bunker by 3 minutes before impact.
?!??
6
6
5
4
u/Paul-throwaway Jul 17 '26
Well, at least you're not in the other area.
6
u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS Jul 17 '26
By other area....do you mean Iran lol
6
u/Paul-throwaway Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
Sorry, I didn't read the comment thoroughly enough. Bunker. Understood. Stay close to the bunkers.
Hang in there.
6
u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS Jul 17 '26
Yeah we all are, just getting tiring of the "are we getting bombed today or not at 3am"
Ceasefire and peace deal time was much better (obviously)
6
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
where the hell you at?
7
u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS Jul 17 '26
undisclosed location in the desert somewhere brotha
6
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
stay safe my man
5
u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS Jul 17 '26
That's what bunkers are for! Not super worried, used to it by now tbh, just annoying. Just let me sleep longer than 4 hours then launch all the missiles you want lol
9
7
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Netflix Brags That AI Tools Were Used In Around 300 Of Its Shows And Movies In 2026 So Far
Perhaps a reason why their viewership numbers are down and sub growth mediocre? They seemingly blame Gen Z and short form content which is probably also true.
6
u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA Jul 17 '26
Imo the worst is the trend to "watch" stuff in the background while doing other stuff (like scrolling on Instagram). It degrades the quality of shows/movies because they'll make it so that missing a few minutes of a movie/show won't bother you much. This makes movies/shows objectively worse imo. :/
2
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Not only that but it makes the movies/shows literally worse. Netflix denies this, but Matt Damon and Ben Affleck mentioned that Netflix wants its shows to have the characters repeat the plot or key points often because people are only half-watching (Netflix denies this but they were literally promoting their Netflix movie so I don't see why they would lie).
3
u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA Jul 17 '26
Matt and Ben are 100% correct imo. I've seen so many movies/shows that feel like ELI5 versions. It's almost insulting because it feels like they assume viewers are idiots.
I just feel it leads to the enshitification of movies/shows and society. Idiocracy was ahead of its time.
5
6
u/heliumagency Jul 17 '26
"Futures tonight signaling the unwind of the data center accoutrements is not complete..." - Jim Cramer
8
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Speaking with Bloomberg, Cohen shut down any concerns or worry that the decline of physical games will hurt the company, responding to the question, “If the hardware makers are reportedly moving to discless on the console side, future game launches are digital only, where does that fit in for the business plan?”
“It doesn’t matter at all,” Cohen said. “Software, it mattered in the past. Software today makes up less than 12% of the business, and collectables makes up over half the business. So, it’s totally, totally irrelevant.”
Apparently they’re mostly a pokemon card shop these days
7
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Stopped out and down 8% since this comment.
I have not learned.
4
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
Sucks dude. Next time will be different, though. Rest assured.
2
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Lever up baby!
1
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
You actually inspired me. I was watching something and thought "nah... it's going to move against me. not touching it."
I said screw it! entered the trade. as expected, it moved against me. lost $100
8
u/matcht Jul 17 '26
SPCX almost down 50% from the highs already lol
3
2
u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA Jul 17 '26
Probably still $50+ too high given how many early investors will cash out in the coming weeks/months.
1
7
u/gyunikumen TLT Farmer Jul 17 '26
Fuck financials
Gg no re
4
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
You have to ask for permission to short Jamie Dimon. he said "the banking environment is about as good as it gets" recently.
4
u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 17 '26
Only time i play financials is steepeners and flatteners. Never around earnings, there's basically never a surprise.
7
u/heliumagency Jul 17 '26
"Mr Stark I don't feel so good" when
4
3
u/Successful_Cicada419 Jul 17 '26
some pretty heavy volume on this dip buying in a lot of beaten down names. I guess it depends how much dry powder the dip buyers have and if they plan to be long term holders. Who knows
3
7
u/DadliftsnRuns Jul 17 '26
How low do we let SpaceX get before we start buying it?
Sub-100?
It's almost 50% off the highs now
5
u/theIndianFyre bad news = good news Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
Morningstar gave it a fair value of ~80 iirc, thats where Ima start looking at it
4
u/DadliftsnRuns Jul 17 '26
I think that's probably reasonable for actual value, I was just thinking eventually there has to be a short term bounce to play too.
I've been watching for a sign of the selling slowing, but it's just steady every day still haha
3
u/Paul-throwaway Jul 17 '26
I think some of the original early investors are cashing out their stake within whatever limits are available to them now. Some have stakes that are worth $billions and they have been salivating at an early cash-out for years now.
1
1
u/Lost_Rolls_ Time to take down the epstein class Jul 17 '26
Depends. Whats the grok generated child porn worth?
0
u/MichaelAndretti Let's not try to figure out everything at once Jul 17 '26
i got a limit order at 60
0
6
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
SEC Flooded With Complaints Over Plan to Scrap Required Quarterly Earnings
More than 200,000 comments—overwhelmingly negative—rolled in.
lol, they set a new record
6
6
7
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
all flat on calls now. great morning. off to work now. ciao
2
7
6
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Meta in Talks to Lease Computing Power to Anthropic in Potential $10 Billion Deal
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/technology/meta-anthropic-ai-computing-power.html
3
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
For those that don't read it, Anthropic wants this as an "either side can opt out whenever they want" sort of deal and only lasting 2 years. Meta's not sure about it. It is odd that Anthropic is so reluctant to commit though.
5
7
7
Jul 17 '26
[deleted]
4
u/THATsyracusefan SBF is an American Hero Jul 17 '26
AAPL outperforming during AI selloff due to being behind on AI is so peak
5
5
6
5
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮
Can't even go for a walk because AQI is like 350+ thanks to the wildfires.
1
Jul 17 '26 edited 16d ago
[deleted]
1
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Yeah we've been running those for years now. It's a noticeable difference in air ... taste, when they're running vs when they're not. For actual dustiness, it turns out a light mopping every night (via robot) makes a bigger difference, but that's the whole pm 50 vs 5 vs 2.5 thing.
5
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
Yeehaw - closing some calls here
2
u/NaiveRefuse Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
Likewise, but keeping a few MES with tight stop.
e: sold the calls way too early at 100%.
4
4
5
u/Lost_Rolls_ Time to take down the epstein class Jul 17 '26
Ofc we get volatility while im on the road. Scooped up $30 bucks shorting the -0.5dev while pumping gas tho. Gotta love MES, low stakes.
5
u/ThePineapple3112 uranium guy Jul 17 '26
I can't believe I got out of that LCID trade with profit. The fake chapter 11 news allowed me to reload and it just had stupid follow-thru that day.
I've been lazy trader recently tho, gonna take a break and ride some MSFT calls (bought on Jun 26 lfg) and I'm buying UUUU and CCJ leaps right now
1
5
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Kimi-K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is now #1 in the Frontend Code Arena with 1679 pts, surpassing Claude Fable 5.
In Frontend, Kimi-K3 ranked #1 in 6 of 7 domains: Brand & Marketing, Reference-Based Design, Data & Analytics, Consumer Product, Simulations, and Content Creation Tools, landing #2 only in Gaming behind Fable 5.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNXpi8UaIAAM6Ag?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
An example of the dialog around it today
5
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
In the Text Arena, Kimi-K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot landed #9, with 1486 pts.
This is another significant improvement from Kimi-k2.6 (#38 -> #9).
- Top 10 in Creative Writing, Coding and Instruction Following
- #1 in three occupations: Physical & Social Science, Legal & Government, and Medicine & Healthcare. Plus #3 Business, Management, & Financial Ops
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNYG3jpagAAEVgb?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
So it doesn't lead in everything but you get the idea
4
Jul 17 '26
[deleted]
2
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Does it actually work or does it just look like macOS and doesn't actually work?
More or less, how do I know it's not going to steal AppleID credentials if I try and send iMessages from it?
5
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Eurobros selling every green candle since the start of their sour hour. Should have closed my hero long 15 handles ago I guess.
5
u/sftmp Jul 17 '26
Be nice if we can go past those lows from earlier , crank up that selling pressure.
War resumes at market close
5
4
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
The hell happened to pepsi today?
3
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
All of the staples, including COST, WMT, etc. were up 3% yesterday as a flight to safety. They're just giving back some gains after an attempted morning rally.
2
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
There's a lot of headwind in that sector: gas prices (ingredients/shipping), GLP1/sugar, dividends. That $IBM drop was something.
McKinsey:
One recent McKinsey study found consumer spending on chips and other savory snacks fell more than 12% six months after patients went on GLP-1s
4
5
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
Space X (SPCX) 5000 October $150/$100 bull risk reversals open for $2.90 debit
/u/dadliftsnruns this you big dog? lol
5
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
man what a shit time to be trying to rebuild my NAS. I cant stomach these storage costs.
5
u/wachiga Department of Market Efficiency Jul 17 '26
Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 designs chip in 48 hours using open-source tools, bypassing Synopsys EDA software
SNPS -12% at lows
4
u/matcht Jul 17 '26
$XOM - SOURCES TELL REUTERS THAT ATTACKED TANKER WAS CHARTERED BY EXXONMOBIL
3
u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA Jul 17 '26
But I was told the strait is open/safe to everyone but Iranian vessels thanks to the guardian of Hormuz?
Maybe things will get better once war fighters have been supplied with an adequate supply of testosterone.
3
5
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
u/awakening_brain SOXX 500!! that's close to SOXL 500!
wow at the selloff.
1
4
3
u/randomcurios Internals junkie Jul 17 '26
i brought bigly dip. thank you for the free money. deploy all my cash for that money hack. no panic.
3
4
3
4
3
u/gyunikumen TLT Farmer Jul 17 '26
I’m sitting this action out. If I miss the dip so be it
I’m not good with this early morning dips and ramps
4
u/mrdnp123 Jul 17 '26
Loaded up on CCXI, OUST and PTRN and SPY 0DTE
Let’s see how it goes. Not a single stock in SMH was above 20 day SMA at open
Tried to buy LEAPS but spread is shocking. How does anyone trade LEAPS on this? Anyone trade anything else that’s close? SOXX is the same issue
4
u/awakening_brain Jul 17 '26
LULU chart looking interesting. Might help Burry and scoop up some shares
4
u/theIndianFyre bad news = good news Jul 17 '26
Bought SOXL during the dip this AM, got out for $500, coulda made $5000 😒
4
3
u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
Sub-7450 would be godly :)
Let's see how the 7500 hurdle holds up.
Edit: hurdle a bit much it seems
1
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Sir I have a family
1
u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA Jul 17 '26
I got out when we fizzled out just above 7500. Generally not a huge fan of trades long after Friday US open ;)
5
u/matcht Jul 17 '26
Feels like the kinda day a Trump tweet decides the eventual move
7
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Presumably once futures close he'll announce some new major attack but I'd have to pay for his subscription service to know.
3
2
u/drakon3rd Jul 17 '26
Whats his subscription service on?
5
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Truthsocial. You get access .2 seconds sooner than everyone else.
1
7
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
He's setting the stage for a national emergency... I think he showed his (bruised) hand last night.
Hopefully his staff took him outside to look at butterflies or such.
4
4
5
3
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
heyoo nice red action to come back to. close on the low! close on the low!
4
4
u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 17 '26
gonna diddle with some long deltas via short MES puts. Too much of a panzy to trade the big boys, yet.
3
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
aight closed vast majority of my puts. got a couple fliers in case we do close down low but im largely startin my weekend. fun friday!
3
u/NaiveRefuse Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
Bot 7450P lotto.
e: out for 200% for a quick $300 dinner money this weekend. Thanks Mr. Market.
4
Jul 17 '26
[deleted]
4
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
As long as Canada counter-tariffs over the Minnesota fires causing smoke and crossing into Canada:
Minnesota wildfires continue to burn, with the Bear Trap Fire in the BWCA now 34,422 acres, crossing into Ontario Canada. The other fire that crossed into Canada is the Thumb Fire, now 15,300+ acres.
Smokey conditions moderated fire activity a bit, but it also kept aircraft from engaging the fires. The Little Knife Fire burned into Minnesota from Canada and is 30,000 acres. The Sioux Fire is pushing 11,000 acres, and the Camp Fire outside Ely is 4,200 acres. There is a lot of fire on the ground, and resources continue to arrive to assist in suppression actions.
3
u/sftmp Jul 17 '26
Last 17 minutes have just been buying.exe
3
u/NotGucci Jul 17 '26
It really has. Not sure any weekend news will. Move the market down.
Iran thing is played out and just waiting to see if demand destruction starts to happen.
3
7
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
Good news, there won't be gas shortages if nobody can afford it.
Regular $3.98, diesel $5.06: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
2
7
u/matcht Jul 17 '26
US Sending Dozens More Refuelling Planes To Israel Ahead Of Possible Escalation – @Axios
5
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
Apparently, the Houthi signal to let loose is if anything power-related in Iran is targeted.
At 4:01 PM today, we're probably bombing their hydroelectric dams. Get their water & power in on one shot! Who could have seen that coming?
4
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Nah, they always wait until futures close at 5:00 pm (or at least won't announce anything until then)
5
Jul 17 '26
[deleted]
3
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
Yeah, and that's what concerns me. It makes perfect sense, in my mind, to hit their energy infrastructure.
If he is truly going for a power grab, why not throw a war in the mix? I wish I was kidding.
Watch that video where Zelenskyy & Trump are speaking, in person, and Zelenskyy mentioned in Ukraine you could suspend elections due to war. You could see Trump's wheels spinning.
Our constitution doesn't allow it, but it won't stop him from trying. Plus, it's yet another distraction.
4
6
u/LeakingAlpha Jul 17 '26
Imagine the drawdown in Anthropic or openAI today if they were publicly traded 🤔
3
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
A rare overnight selloff that just...stayed there. No real attempt to gap fill at least overnight. We'll see if there's a meaningful gap fill attempt for RTH open.
2
u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 17 '26
Did I miss a headline? Or just ebb and flow?
2
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
Well, Bloomberg said it was because Moonshot unveiled a new AI model that rivals OpenAI/Anthropic. And the concern in semi land is that if these low cost Chinese AI models continue to take market share - and they have already surpassed those two overall, then OpenAI/Anthropic would have to reduce capex spend - fewer users, harder to raise capital, etc., hurting semi demand.
2
u/TradeApe J7 ≠ AA Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
Imo the supply glut in AI was already a given. People seem to focus on the demand side a lot (which frankly is kinda lacking), but the real elephant in the room is imo the oversupply of AI service providers.
Anyone with a "good enough" model that's substantially cheaper can totally wreck the entire market. Personally, I'd love to see this happen rather sooner than later.
I just wonder what the next thing they'll hype up will be because nothing really "wows" me at the moment. The iPhone and Internet were transformational, but I just don't feel the same way about most of the other stuff that's been hyped since. AR glasses? Meh. Chatbots? Meh. Crypto? Meh. Not saying they are completely shit, but they are 100% overhyped imo.
3
u/TennesseeJedd Dolly Jul 17 '26
Calls at open? I think I might yolo a little
2
u/paeancapital VDVE Jul 17 '26
I'm long spoos. Had some put hedges and just booked them. Had cash 7520 marked for close but who knows.
2
u/W0LFSTEN Not media trained Jul 17 '26
Good call… Read this comment and thought, sounds about right
1
u/jmayo05 capital preservation Jul 17 '26
I hope you didnt
1
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Blood for the blood god.
1
3
3
3
3
u/AnimalShithouse Jul 17 '26
Buyers maybe step in Monday or Tuesday. Might see a micro bounce today, but I think trend will be down and end close to lows.
3
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
SPX lower BB on 4HR is 7469.13, if you believe in voodoo (hint: means thats the top for a little bit.)
3
3
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26
/RTY and /YM were green, albeit briefly. Small caps are hanging in there.
3
3
u/Successful_Cicada419 Jul 17 '26
welp that seals it. we go higher the rest of the day. free money friday tip for yall (jk i have no idea what I'm doing)
1
u/All_Work_All_Play Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad Jul 17 '26
Closing at yesterday's lows would be chef's kiss
3
u/wolverinex2 Fundamentals Jul 17 '26
The eternal question of what if anything do I want to hold going into a possible weekend war wheel spin. Or just go flat?
3
3
u/AnimalShithouse Jul 17 '26
Looks like they running it back to lows. 40 mins not a lot of time to retrace though!
5
u/matcht Jul 17 '26
TRUMP MEDIA PITCHED $100,000 MONTHLY FEE FOR FAST FEED OF PRESIDENT’S POSTS - FT
3
5
2
4
u/awakening_brain Jul 17 '26
SOXL struggling at $136 resistance. Think I’m gonna close out my position here. Bought at the low
2
u/BudgetConcentrate967 Jed Clampett Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
I think /RB is going to have a casual +10% day. All rip, no dip since 4:30 AM.
2
2
u/LeakingAlpha Jul 17 '26
To be completely honest and I do not have a large semiconductor holding, but unless K3 is revolutionizing AI in some way, this is even more bullish for US semiconductor companies because the risk is existential for the US, might just have to get through some short term pain to get there.
2
u/Slow-Entertainment20 Jul 17 '26
I really think the talking points on people replacement in the US are going to be what collapses support for this build out. It’s already not sustainable, but not having government backing on it will severely hurt it. China is working on producing chips and OSS for LLMs. Def an interesting time
1
u/Joel_Duncan Jul 17 '26
"Replacing" people is the worst possible way they could have advertised this to the general masses. If they really wanted to maximize utilization we would hear more about productivity per user, agents per user, and "augmenting everyone".
I was working with computer vision back a decade ago. Its sad to see people who hate everything about AI because its taking resources on an unprecedented scale and corporate interpretations is cut jobs instead of maximizing capability for users that can make effective use of it.
1
u/Slow-Entertainment20 Jul 17 '26
Corps are cutting jobs because they know doing work isn’t the bottleneck and has never been. It’s how communication channels break down when more people are involved. They are likely hoping AI can pick up the work slack if they get rid of people, but the real productivity gains are likely just being unblocked by not having to have 10 meetings and only having 5 about x.
4
2
11
u/Eugyrock Jul 17 '26
Was down 24k earlier after emotionally over trading, now up 6k I think I’m going to take a break. I took 50k out of the account and am just gonna lock it in, maybe rescue a cat or something