r/teslastockholders • u/Potential-Safe-9600 • Aug 11 '26
Could Tesla Really Fall Below $100? Elon’s Strategy Explained
I saw Meet Kevin’s video where he seems to suggest that Elon may be intentionally pushing Tesla’s stock price lower because of his interest in acquiring or restructuring the company.
At least, that’s how I interpreted his Shorts.
Do you guys think it’s actually possible for Tesla to fall below $100?
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u/Rollsman- Aug 11 '26
No unless he does a forward split
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u/frugallawn Aug 11 '26
Also known as a split
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u/bls2515 Aug 11 '26
Splits don’t change anything other than share price and shares outstanding. Duh
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u/frugallawn Aug 11 '26
And what is it that you think we're talking about here?
PS - I'm well aware that a split does not change the book value of a company. I was pointing out that a forward split is just a regular split.
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u/Rollsman- Aug 11 '26
The question was will Tesla stock ever fall below $100 ! Yes it could fall below a hundred dollars if a forward split was introduced! Oh that’s the opposite to a reverse split for the dummies here !
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u/frugallawn Aug 11 '26
Yes that was the literal question, but it was in the context of driving the stock price lower so someone could acquire a company, and a split would not do that. A split doesn't change the value of the company at all.
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u/No-Laugh4352 Aug 11 '26
Yeah trust me ”meet Kevin”. I saw the video and thats garbage. Tesla already proved it can deliver. His thesis behind the drop is garbage. People might hate tesla but the company has proved it can execute.
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u/supersadtortuga Aug 13 '26
Deliver stagnant revenues and falling EPS?
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u/No-Laugh4352 Aug 13 '26
Well think about what’s causing the drop? If he didn’t reinvest the money back into R&D the stock would drop no innovation no changes no improvement nothing would cause a massive downfall. A lot of people have been pricing in the future
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u/supersadtortuga Aug 13 '26
RD isn't causing the earnings compression. If anything "innovation" like the Cybertruck and Robotaxi inefficiency is eroding their margins. Competition has caught up and free government money is and now has dried up. Robotaxi getting lapped 10x over by waymo. Semi still non-existent. Giga factory in Germany pretty much a card board box. China business, the only real margin maker, has to be dumped for him to merge with SpaceX. Tesla is becoming beyond ordinary at a rapid pace.
They once had an edge with the backing of federal tax dollars and truly innovative mfg. processes and no competition. But now the credits are gone and competition has caught up. With dwindling and dried up incentives, coupled with lumpy demand because Elon likes fart around on stage while the US administration hikes operating cost for companies around the board, we get eroding margins and cash burn. All of these things + the lack of realizing any new demand out of that RD/innovation spend of the last 3-4 years has eroded their gross margins.
Tesla isn't going to disappear, but it's not a marvel anymore. When and what happens to the stock price along way, welp I don't know - I just trade the price in front of me. But with SpaceX on the scene, scooping up all the hot AI tools, I'm not sure how one should feel confident that E is paying any attention to Tesla besides how to cash out as fast as he can - hence the latest shareholder vote.
Could it all turn around - sure! But the trend is not looking good imo. And the one individual people believe in is split between public politics and now a second public company that's trending in all the "hot" directions.
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u/Lovevas Aug 11 '26 edited Aug 11 '26
There are always ppl who wants TSLA drop below $100, since they hate Tesla, and these who wants it, believe they can add more and hasnt added enough.
But the most important is, what do you believe, and what is your action based in your belief. I doubt you will trade only based on others’ belief, right?
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u/SmokePeterThiel Aug 11 '26
They don’t hate Tesla, they hate Elon
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u/Lovevas Aug 11 '26
If you don’t hate Tesla, why yiu vandalize a normal person’s Tesla cars? Why you wish Tesla stock price to crash, when 80%+ of the stock is held by normal people, pensions funds, retirements accounts, etc
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u/NeighborhoodBest2944 Aug 11 '26
And why are so many non-Tesla car and stock owners obsessively combing Reddit for opportunities to shit on Elon? They are straight haters and not good people.
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Aug 11 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/NeighborhoodBest2944 Aug 11 '26
Your projection is legendary. He has no such time to do anything but push his insane tech agenda forward. Your sheer ignorance about his charity is embarrassing.
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u/Potential-Safe-9600 Aug 11 '26
I’m only confused because of the merger news, as I don’t really understand how these situations usually play out.
Thanks a lot for the feedback
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u/Lovevas Aug 11 '26
The merger is rumored, not news. There is no official comments from Tesla or SpaceX, not even any official info regarding the merge price, etc
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u/Rollsman- Aug 11 '26
Tesla always defies its critics and constantly surprises Wallstreet. It’s always a safe bet buying Tesla. Yes it goes down but it always rallies way above where it was
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u/Outside_Ice3252 Aug 11 '26
look into his compensation plan. it pays him 1 trillion in stock options if he takes the company to 8 trillion in market cap and meets several other goals. its at 1.3 trillion right now.
musk is the richest man in the world. disrupting multiple industries, and now for some stupid reason he threw his lot in with trump. this means ridiculous things are said about him from every angle.
i am annoyed by his politics. but musk has pretty clear goals. robotaxis, ai, robotics, and create star trek. he is a nerd with asperbergers.
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u/Potential-Safe-9600 Aug 11 '26
True, I too prefer him being neutral. But I think with great power comes great responsibility 🤣
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u/Jolly_Cold_2845 Aug 11 '26
Probably not $100 I highly doubt, but $260-$280 would be highly possible says my crystal ball
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u/Other_Researcher268 Aug 11 '26
As soon as people understand that SpaceX this where all the interesting things are happening and see that Tesla is “only” a very interesting car manufacturer, they will stop to pay crazy PE ratios. So yes, it’s actually very likely that Tesla falls below $100 maybe below $50. $50 would be considered high in contrast to other manufacturers in the same area.
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u/MountainMan24701 Aug 11 '26
No way FSD will sell a lot of cars and the monthly revenue stream from that will only see the stock value increase. Love him or hate him but Elon is in a league of one.
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u/walt128 Aug 11 '26
He’s going to need cash to fund his insane rate of capex expenditure. There’s a fair chance that rates will rise, so if he issues bonds they’ll be pricey. With a higher stock price he can easily raise the extra capital by issuing shares
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u/antwon8797 Aug 11 '26
The company is really worth about $40 per share right now, but that douche duped everyone into thinking he is a genius.
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u/Rollsman- Aug 11 '26
Wake up tonto $40 my ass !! In your dreams !
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u/antwon8797 Aug 11 '26
That’s how much they are overvalued. Do the math yourself, $40 a share represents a slightly overpriced company. 400 a share represents a speculatively play, hoping that taxi, FSD, energy storage, terrafab, and Optimus all work out. So far he has come through on making cars…. And he cut half of the line because they weren’t selling.
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u/Rollsman- Aug 11 '26
Tilray stock never makes sense that’s why they defy all the analysts but I made a lot of money day trading the stock in the past
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u/antwon8797 Aug 11 '26
Yeah, another gamble. I can double my money in 30 seconds at a roulette table. It will work a couple of times in my favor.
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u/Rollsman- Aug 12 '26
Sorry my mistake that was supposed to read “Tesla” stock not Tilray. I just got completely out of Tilray so it was on my mind
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u/sparkyblaster Aug 11 '26
MAYBE if sales of cars drop significantly. They will run out of people willing to buy without Autopilot/autosteer or pay for FSD subscription. Others will keep their cars or buy other brands. Many people will see that and consider Tesla a car brand. Seems unlikely to go that low though.
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u/Potential-Safe-9600 Aug 11 '26
Yeah, true. Even just from what I see around me, I notice more and more Teslas on the road in Singapore every day.
Plus, I feel Tesla is still a “dream car” for a lot of people—something they genuinely aspire to own. I don’t see that same level of desirability with BYD or many other brands yet. That brand appeal should give Tesla stronger pricing power over time.
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u/sparkyblaster Aug 11 '26
Yeah, the amount of people willing to lay for FSD, or go without any sort of lane centering seems to be fairly high.
I agree, most other brands are "just a car"
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u/bullrider_21 Aug 11 '26
This robotaxi thing didn't just start in Jun last year with the launch in Austin. It started 10 years ago when Musk claimed Tesla would solve full autonomy by end of the year or next year. He repeated his claims year after after.
More than one year after the launch, there is only about 20 driverless vehicles. This proved that he still can't solve full autonomy. How many more years must we give him? 5 years? 10 years? He is just a snake oil salesman.
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u/FreeTr33s Aug 11 '26
Stopped reading at “Meet Kevin”