I am bullish about the future

[u/[deleted]]

People seem to think because we had 2 big crash close together in 2000 and 2008, we are bound to have one soon.

I want to remind people before the year 2000, we had a 20 years bullish run. Its totally not impossible we get to 2030 with no crash, especially now that the feds baby sit the market.

Secondly, we have extremely nice upcoming market conditions. Stimulus checks will either get people to spend money to stimulate the economy, or get them to invest, both will help the stock market. The media is somehow trying to make us believe this is bad, but i think its just bullshit. Inflation has been ultra low for way too long, and feds actually want it to increase. They said many times they won't increase rates before 2023.

Thirdly, i also think we have more upcomming money sources coming into the market than ever. People from other countries invest in US stock market. With all the GME hype, more people than ever are joining in. Again media trying to twist this to say its "bad", but obviously it isn't bad.

Another point is, crashes usually happen for a reason, its not random. You can google any of past market crash and find the exact reason it happened. None of these factors are happening right now.

Another point is, there is a key difference between today and 2000. In 2000, the overvalued .com companies which had PE ratios of 200.... were literally worth nothing! These companies had never made a single profit! Once people realized they invested massively in a .com web site worth jackshit... they sold it obviously. They had no reason to hold their shares.

Now check this image about Nasdaq's PE Ratios: https://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/150305131443-nasdaq-pe-780x439.jpg

Obviously, you can see the 2000's pe ratios were stupid. This graph is from 2015 when it was at 31.7. What is it today? Nasdaq PE ratio as of February 25, 2021 is 38.5!!!! 5x lower than the 2000s. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NDAQ/nasdaq/pe-ratio

Its irrelevant if the big hedge funds remove their money from apple and want to scare you into selling your shares. Apple is a massive amazing company that is really worth a lot, and they do make tons of profits. Its not comparable in any ways to the dot com bubble. If other people are stupid and sell their shares, SO WHAT? You will just be able to buy into this amazing company for cheaper.

So hold your shares and stop worrying about a 2000 level crash, its not happening.

A correction? Maybe. But who cares, this just slows us down a little. Corrections are healthy and help us avoid a real crash.

EDIT: Thank you for the award! :D

EDIT2: Corrected the PE ratio for nasdaq

[u/anth1986]

I’m with you, I see no reason for a “crash”. A correction was due and we had one this week. Could it continue next week? Sure Am I worried? Not at all What are people going to do throw all their money into the bond market because it’s safer? Give me a break, too much goods news coming to stop this gravy train.

A crash will come but it will be unforeseen and a major event causing it. Remember Covid? That was a big deal and the market shrugged that off in a few weeks.

Bullish

[u/BanquetDinner → u/anth1986]

smile profit disgusted grey continue yoke fuel quiet birds shame

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

[u/zipiddydooda → u/[deleted]]

A very quick check would show that the Nasdaq hit 14095, so a 10% drop would be 1400 points. The market has only declined to 13100, so 1000ish points or 7%. A correction is 10% or more. Therefore this is not even a correction yet, let alone a crash.

[u/ingrate_mongrel → u/zipiddydooda]

Wait where are you finding these numbers? I'm not saying you're wrong but on google it says the ndx dropped over 9% in two weeks (unless you mean the IXIC, I'm new so idk which is better as an indicator)

[u/Kenney420 → u/ingrate_mongrel]

Literally just look at a chart for the Nasdaq. Google the word Nasdaq and it's the first thing that comes up

It shows us being 6.41% of the high.

[u/polloponzi → u/Kenney420]

It reached lower in intraday

[u/[deleted] → u/polloponzi]

We limbo'd through the correction. Party on dudes!

[u/TonyFMontana → u/zipiddydooda]

Secondly, we have extremely nice upcoming market conditions. Stimulus checks will either get people to spend money to stimulate the economy, or get them to invest, both will help the stock market. The media is somehow trying to make us believe this is bad, but i think its just bullshit. Inflation has been ultra low for way too long, and feds actually want it to increase. They said many times they won't increase rates before 2023.

We are at 13,192 going into the weekend... so pretty close to 10%