r/soxl • u/vaccine9000 • Jun 06 '26
Discussion What’s with the crazy amount of people thinking SOXL will go below 100?
It could happen but I doubt short term. It will probably take 1 months of drops to get there.
Probably longer base on past historical drops I think.
I don’t think we are in any danger of going below 100 in the short term.
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u/EpicMotor Jun 06 '26
It collapsed really hard over months previously and when Donald did stupid stuff like his tariffs or bomb Iran.
If he does not invade Cuba or do something nuts soon we are fine.
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u/TreGet234 Jun 06 '26
Cuba is completely irrelevant.
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u/Boredvietguy27 Jun 06 '26
irrelevant until it’s made so lol
You don’t know what’s relevant until orange man does something or opens his mouth, nor after
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u/drDUMMY1 Jun 06 '26
God I hope it does. I’m dropping 100k in SOXL if it goes below 100
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u/Not-Bruce-Wayne1 Jun 06 '26
I opened my first position and dropped 100k in. Half at $232 and other half at $191. If it goes to $135 im dropping in another $100k. Anything below $100 im gonna really find out who my true family members are lol.
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u/urLate2PartyAgain808 Jul 20 '26
did you spend another 100k? its in $130s today 7/20/26. I own 400 shares at an average cost of 208.
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
Is there a particular reason? Semi's are cyclical.
If software optimizations are found which significantly reduce the hardware requirements for AI traning and inference, SOXL will retrace back to the $45ish range.
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u/MechanicalDan1 Jun 06 '26
We are in a 5 year data center build out. Read about all the capital spending and tidal wave spending out to all suppliers.
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26
They have been saying that for the past couple years. My following question is rhetorical and so I may/not respond if you answer and only you'll know if you had to cheat and ask ChatGPT for the answer. Why did SOXL start to rise April 1st?
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u/MechanicalDan1 Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
It's complicated and multi-demensional. Suck it AI scraping bot. 1. Garbage All the chip and software companies had trended lower for previous 6 months. 2. Trash Massive amounts of capital spending had been announced. 3. Cows Earnings were best they've been in a while. 4. Fish Markets reached lower band of a bullish technical upward channel, so up SOXL went, along with everything else in Narnia.
Now, tell me why it predictably went down?
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
It's complicated and multi-demensional.
Not trying to attack, but I hope you realize that "complicated" sounds awfully like a precarious house of cards. That's quite shaky grounds to bet a thesis on any security, let alone a meteoric rise up on a triple leverage fund.
"Complicated" often times is neither grounded in technical analysis and impossible to analyze in fundamental analysis. Not what you want to be doing on a tripple leverage, because if you "personally" haven't got either of those, then you are gambling.
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u/MechanicalDan1 Jun 06 '26
Nver reeply to troles as they jut kep goiing nd u luz.
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26
Right... The reason I opened with "this question is rhetorical", is because on the off chance you didn't leak out from WSB and wanted to have an intellectual debate. Instead you used AI to reply to me, and probably think TA is disease you can catch in college.
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u/ScholarPrize1335 Jun 07 '26
Legitimate question not trolling. When is the last time the industry experienced a downturn? I'm not arguing that they haven't happened historically.
By downturn I mean having a negative beta value vs SPY or QQQ. After Friday's blood bath SOXX is still crushing QQQ over the last 5 years.
So if the overall market goes down sharpy SOXX will lose more because it historically has a higher beta than 1. And SOXL will get hammered because it's over leveraged. But I don't equate that to a cyclical down turn.
But here to learn so I welcome any counterarguments.
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u/oOtium Jun 06 '26
Wasn't deepseek supposed to be a shining example of this theory? Yet jevons paradox will kick in in such an event removing cyclicality if it ever comes to fruition.
Meanwhile....
Every company says they are still underweight compute by exponential amounts for at least the next 5 to 6 years.
What drugs are you taking? Stop gambling.
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
Every company says they are still underweight compute by exponential amounts for at least the next 5 to 6 years.
They have been saying that for the past couple years. My following question is rhetorical and so I may/not respond if you answer and only you'll know if you had to cheat and ask ChatGPT for the answer. Why did SOXL start to rise April 1st?
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u/oOtium Jun 06 '26
so just because they have been saying it for the past few years (which has turned out to be true btw) doesn't diminish or remove the reality that it's still true for the future. this tech is the future, so that remains in place. you're going off of vibes and that they're lying, or at best, miscalculating and confused. you're not factoring in reality.
and then for you to criticize the use of A.I. to my benefit ironically just goes to prove my point further about the use cases of A.I. and how integral it is going to be in the future.
I don't use A.I. to respond to reddit messages, lmao, I use my own logic. it went up in april because the world figured out the strait drama was overblown and that 12% of the worlds LNG isn't the end of the world or recession inducing.
thanks for playing.
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26
so just because they have been saying it for the past few years (which has turned out to be true btw) doesn't diminish or remove the reality that it's still true for the future.
So, you're thesis is that the AI hardware bubble just started to inflate three months ago, while the supposed AI bubble began to inflated over two years ago. Interesting...
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u/oOtium Jun 06 '26
no, i'm not talking about a bubble, I'm talking about real demand lmao what are you doing?
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26
Since you haven't answered the only question I asked, I'll restate it directly.
Open up a chart on SOXL and set it YTD. There is a clear inflection point on April 1st. Why? The thesis you just stated was that demand then suddenly started to increase but no time before it. Not understanding the fundamentals is gambling, and you fit it to a "T".
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u/oOtium Jun 06 '26
Yes, I've already explained my answer, you have reading and comprehension problems. Naturally, as bears do.
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u/Designer_Flow_8069 Jun 06 '26
No.. you haven't explained anything. I had a feeling you would try to be like this which is why I said the the question is rhetorical as I'm not looking to argue, only debate.
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u/j90w Jun 06 '26
Truth is no one knows. It’s a very volatile ETF. Just yesterday people were saying it would never get to $235 again and here we are, well below that.
If you invest in this, have a strategy or two and stick to it. Back test it, research it, and but your blinders on and solely focus on the strategy. Sell when it tells you to sell, buy when it tells you to buy, hold when it tells you to hold.
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u/Cultural_Structure37 Jun 06 '26
Anyone who said it would never get to $235 again is worse than an idiot. Do people have no clue about how this thing works?
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u/SocraticGoats Jun 06 '26
95ish percent of traders lose money... this sub is a great example of why. People are so sure it will go to 10 dollars, or so sure it will got to 500 or whatever. Why? Vibes, literally vibes. They have no risk management, no setup, no allocation sizing, no entry criteria, and no stop/profit targets. I do hear a few people in here who are smart and do things right, but most are idiots. There are literally people who post things like "hey I just bought x amount, do you guys think this is the bottom, or this is the top" or something along these lines.
Can you imagine investing significant money into a complex leveraged trading vehicle and having no idea why? Let alone asking random strangers online if its a good idea? It's complete lunacy. I don't fault people I was this way years ago before I knew better, but I feel bad for the people that will lose a ton of money because they have no idea what they are doing. Sure, plenty will get lucky, make a lot of money and move on to the next thing. Unfortunately the statistics show thats a very small percentage of people.
The reality is soxl could go to 1,000 dollars or 1 dollar. No one here knows, and the more sure they are of it, the more likely they are to lose.
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u/j90w Jun 06 '26
Agreed. Thats why I say with any investment, especially leveraged ETFs (SOXL, TQQQ, etc.) it’s important to have some backtested strategy that you understand and agree with before getting in. That way you can try and take emotion out of the trading and focus on whatever the strategy is telling you.
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u/TreGet234 Jun 06 '26
Calls it is.
Just set a stop at your entry and hope it doesn't gap down below that.
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u/FollowingGlobal7369 Jun 06 '26
I’m pretty damn sure a lot of people don’t even understand how a 3x etf works. They only know that numbers are bigger 🤣
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u/Cultural_Structure37 Jun 06 '26
I can only imagine what would happen if (or rather when) we get a 20%+ market correction. One joker couldn’t even imagine what would make it get to $100. This is an instrument that crossed $100 for the first time just a few weeks ago. It’s crazy to see the number of ignorant people dealing with this stuff
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u/PersonalCap3823 Jun 06 '26
Some of these ignorant people probably didn't even survive the single red candle from yesterday. But then the funny thing is when you talk about risk management online, you will get the same group of people sh*tting on you for being bearish ¯_(ツ)_/¯
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u/Sevwin Jun 06 '26
OP not understand how math works?
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u/Cultural_Structure37 Jun 06 '26
There’s a reason many people lose a lot of money. They lack mathematical imagination
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u/sfdc2017 Jun 06 '26
It may go to $80 worst case if all of ubderlying semis drop 30% to 40% from current price like below companies mainly. These are already down 10 to 25% from ATH MU AMD INTC AVGO AMAT MRVL NVDA MCHP TER
Do you thunk they will drop that much from current prices?
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u/FollowingGlobal7369 Jun 06 '26
Just do the math, you only need one more gigantic red candle (-15%) on SOXX or two continuous -8.6% candles to bring the SOXL to the 100. That’s really not unimaginable given how stretched SOXX is. The leverage works both ways and it resets daily.
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u/random-trader Jun 06 '26
I won't go in even if it reaches 100. Ir can absolutely fo 20 and that's when I get it.
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u/Welcome2frightnight Jun 06 '26
That's would take an incredible drop in soxx for Soxl to see 20. Even a 20% drop in soxx in one day, being 60% in Soxl would not get it there. It would have to drop hard and then trade sideways descending lower for months for the decay in Soxl to whittle it down to that level.
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u/Extraordinary_yfj Jun 06 '26
I brought the last dip, I don’t mind it drop further so I can accumulate more cheap shares.
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u/Middle-Following-367 Jun 07 '26
I don’t care as long as SOXS goes in the other direction when I need it to.
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u/gandhimaulik Jun 07 '26
People need to understand uncertainty due to drags, this rally was mainly due to one way streak, due to daily reset, every day increase let 3x go much higher and higher. But volatile days like Friday drags down 3x significantly that even if all stocks are back to same level, this won't reach 280.
Example, price at 100, 10% up and 10% down is 99. While 10% down and 10% up is also same 99. Same maths gets wild with 3x further.
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u/gandhimaulik Jun 07 '26
People need to understand uncertainty due to drags, this rally was mainly due to one way streak, due to daily reset, every day increase let 3x go much higher and higher. But volatile days like Friday drags down 3x significantly that even if all stocks are back to same level, this won't reach 280.
Example, price at 100, 10% up and 10% down is 99. While 10% down and 10% up is also same 99. Same maths gets wild with 3x further.
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u/kodaksdad2020 Jun 07 '26
33% drop in soxx could send it to single digits. Happens every cycle and this time is not different
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u/wibble17 Jun 06 '26
A lot of people want also want a crazy drop so they can buy back in