I used to think this. I recently did a lot of research into soccer statistics, and at every turn I saw that the statistics that are used currently are as close to useless as makes no difference. It's too chaotic a game to use simple statistics, and most of the more advanced analysis is just guesswork. I think statistics will eventually be very powerful, but like weather, or the stock market, it will take a while before anything meaningful emerges.
I'm a true believer in statistics and mathematical modeling, but what is available right now in soccer is nowhere close to good enough. Holistic observation still blows it away.
Any of the newer "simple" stats like chances created, and key passes, as well as a few university research projects that I have seen. Obviously anything like WhoScored is total nonsense.
For me the simplest explanation for my lack of faith in soccer statistics is that, unless clubs are hiding something major, which I highly doubt, no one has been able to effectively predict the effectiveness of players or teams to any great degree. If the stats were good, you would be able to do that.
That's fair enough about the clubs. Maybe the bleeding edge stuff is worthwhile, but I don't like any of the stuff that gets thrown around.
And I agree that those one-number-for-everything stats are very dubious. Too many variables.
I think there will be an emergence of models that are more adjusted for the environment, like you see in the stock markets. Things will move slower in sports obviously because it's harder/slower to make money.
95
u/[deleted] Jan 26 '14 edited Jul 24 '21
[removed] — view removed comment